Tag: Football

Are NFL RBs Undervalued

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The game has certainly changed. The running backs who’s grinding out yards with 25 – 30 carries /game is over. WRs and QBs are the most important skilled players on offense now, there’s no question about that. RBs seem like they are feeling that they’re not NFL valued as to what they think they should be valued for a team.

I understand that it’s always easy to look at the WRs or the QB and say you want the same payday as they get because you’re just as important. But in reality, that’s not how things are. RBs are very important but they’re just not quite as important as the others. Not everybody gets what they think they might deserve, that’s the hard truth.

There’s also a point where you put the team before yourself. That mentality has sadly declined greatly over the years. If a player wants 8 million /year but the team is willing to give them 4 million /year because they want more cash to build a team around him. It’s common sense that the team guy takes the 4 million, the guy who puts himself first, is going to try to get the largest pay he can. They can go and see if another team is willing to pay them what they want. If they’re not, then they’re basically turning down millions of dollars because… they wanted… more millions of dollars.
It’s kind of crazy, when you think about it.

All teams need to do is continually redraft young players in the 2nd 3rd rounds, they can pay them a rookie salary. The young RBs are coming in eager to prove something. They’re not going to complain about their paycheck that they’re receiving.  They’re grateful to be in the NFL, and they’re grateful to be getting paid to play the game.
RBs are all replaceable.

If anything, when all is said and done, RBs are still extremely important to the game and a team’s success. 

But, as the game has changed, their value to the team has come down and Vegas bettors love the passing game.

Dallas Cowboys Will Win the NFC East

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The Cowboys are going to be very good this year. They have loads of talent on offense and the return of Dak Prescott is only going to make them strong. I think they are going to run away with their division, and this wager offers more value than their season win total, which is at 9.5 and remember they play 17 games this year. The biggest move the Dallas Cowboys made this offseason was drafting pretty much all defense with 3 key signings: Key 2021 Draft Picks: LB Micah Parsons, CB Kelvin Joseph, DT Osa Odighizuwa. Also – Key Additions: DL Brent Urban, OT Ty Nsekhe, EDGE Tarell Basham. The Giants and Eagles will  be poor this year as the Washington defense is tough but they aren’t ready on offense yet.  The Cowboys have the strength and talent to dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. And as long as their pass defense holds up, they could once again post units ranked in the Top 10 in offense and defense like they did a few years ago. The Cowboys lost five games in the 4th Q last year and with their duel threat QB back he will be the difference maker in the 2021 NFL season.  

Take the DALLAS COWBOYS +110 to WIN THE NFC EAST. 

Will Lamar Jackson have another MVP year

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Russell Wilson was awesome this season with 4110 passing YDs, 31 TDs, and just 5 picks – Christian McCaffrey had a monstrous season with 2392 total yards from scrimmage and 15 TDs, and Derrick Henry can’t go unrecognized with his 1540 rushing YDs and leading the NFL with 16 rushing TDs for the NFL this season.
But then there’s Lamar Jackson – what Lamar did was beyond any semblance of normal – 36 passing TDs and 7 rushing TDs are pretty hard to overlook. With 6 games of 300+ of total offensive yards including 4 games of 100+ rushing yards or better, he dominated the AFC. Teams knew he was coming and he still racked up 4333 YDs of offense for Baltimore this season.
Lamar made the Baltimore Ravens Oline look better than they are – the Ravens have the same front that couldn’t block for Joe Flacco. As Baltimore’s Oline was banged up quite a bit – guys that were hurt for numerous games – so they barely had the same front all season long. If Jackson couldn’t get outside the pocket, when things went sideways – there would have been a lot more sacks. The 23 year old QB also did more with less with his receiving corps – as he only had Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown as his primary guys to throw to, and neither are really looked at as elite players, that are ripping up teams on the field. Lamar had very few weapons around him, but was lucky to be on a team that has a defense one that gave up just 17.6 ppg – which I think is based solely on the fact of their offense being so potent. The defense was able to tee off – because they found themselves ahead and putting up so many points – it forced teams to start throwing. Their receivers wouldn’t be starters for most offenses in the NFL. Andrews is a solid weapon – but otherwise they don’t have a ton of guys to throw the ball to, without Lamar – the Baltimore Ravens probably win 6-8 games. Tops.
Jackson put together an amazing season while leading his team to 14 wins – including wins over he Niners and the Pats and they hung 33 pts per game because of him. The MVP is the player who was most valuable to his team, the guy who, if without him, the team would’ve been a middling team at best.
That is what the NFL MVP should be – it has been slowly turning into the player who is the most flashy over the last few years. We have to really remember the MVP is for the most valuable player – not necessarily the player that did the coolest things. At the beginning of the season, the Ravens were projected to finish around 3rd place in the North – but suddenly people are going to say he has a great amazing team – I don’t think so. Lamar Jackson was fun to watch. He led the league in TD passes with 36 – and he lit up the ground with 1206 YDs on the ground rushing, giving him a total of 4333 yards of offense he was responsible for.
Pretty top notch.
Conventional, no.
Everybody’s cup of tea, no.
But a weapon on the field, absolutely. How long his career lasts, who knows – but for now, his timing and rushing ability was pretty phenomenal to watch.
Lamar Jackson was the #1 reason Baltimore won the games they did this season. And without the 23 year old – the Ravens would never have accomplished much of anything nearly as to what they did during the 2019 campaign.

Monday Night Football Doubleheader Betting Previews

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Week one of the 2019 NFL season will wrap up on Monday night, and will feature a pair of games. Playing two games on Monday Night Football in week one has been the tradition of late, and that won’t change this season. The New Orleans Saints host the Houston Texans in the first game, and the Oakland Raiders are hosting the Denver Broncos in the finale. Game one will feature a pair of playoff teams from a season ago, and the night cap will have a few teams who are looking to improve greatly in 2019. Let’s take a quick look at each of these games, with a betting prediction and pick for each of them.

Houston Texans at New Orleans Saints:

The first game of the night should be the best one of the two. Both of these teams reached the playoffs a season ago, and they are both heavily favored to win their division this season. The Saints want to play fast, and score a ton of points, and the Houston Texans have one of the most feared defenses in the NFL. The New Orleans Saints are -7.0 point favorites over the Texans in this game.

The Saints have one of the all-time great quarterbacks in Drew Brees, and a pair of talented weapons in Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara. Kamara is a terrific dual-threat on offense, and he should have the ball in his hands a ton in this game. Thomas is the top receiving target, and has been putting up eye popping numbers. New Orleans gave up a ton of passing yards a season ago, but their rush defense was one of the best in the league. The Saints will give up some points, but their offense will score as well.

Houston also has a talented offense led by quarterback Deshaun Watson. The Texans suffered a tough blow in the preseason when running back Lamar Miller went down with a knee injury. The Texans still have a great defense led by JJ Watt, but they will need to put up plenty of points in this one. Bet the Saints -7.0 over the Texans in the series opener. When betting the Saints; check out our favorite pay per head bookie site at https://www.a1pph.com/.

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders:

The second game of the doubleheader is likely to be a lot sloppier in the first, but it should be every bit as competitive. Neither of these teams is expected to make the playoffs this season, but crazier things have happened in the National Football League. The Oakland Raiders are slim -1.0 point favorites over the Denver Broncos in this game.

Denver has had all kinds of trouble finding a quarterback in the last few seasons, and so they changed their strategy. The Broncos brought in veteran Joe Flacco from the Baltimore Ravens, and he should have an impact on the offensive side of the ball. The Broncos will also have a new head coach in Vic Fangio, and he is known as being a great defensive mind. Denver has the talent and personnel to really put some pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and Derek Carr better keep his head on a swivel in this game.

The Oakland Raiders were a mess on both sides of the ball a season ago, and weren’t even able to manage one sack per game. Oakland let Khalil Mack go before the start of the 2018 season, and it killed their chances of being a solid team. The Raiders also struggled mightily on offense, averaging just 18.1 points per game. Bringing in Antonio Brown should help out a ton, but they still have several roster spots that are question marks. Oakland playing at home will make all the difference in the world in this game, and betting the Raiders -1.0 over the Broncos is the smart play here. 

Bet the Raiders -1 over the Broncos at our favorite pay per head bookie site at https://www.a1pph.com/.

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2019 NFL Pre-Season

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Betting the NFL Preseason in 2019

by Jeff Hochman

The Hall of Fame Game is the first NFL preseason game of the year, which closes the annual Hall of Fame enshrinement festivities. On August 1st, 2019, the Denver Broncos and Atlanta Falcons will kick-off the preseason at Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium in Canton, Ohio. The game starts at 8:00 PM E and can be viewed on NBC.

You will hear people say “Don’t bet on NFL Preseason Football”. Big Mistake! It’s actually easier than capping the regular season. In most cases you can read ahead of time the exact game plan for each team. I feel the NFL preseason is a great opportunity to start and build a nice bankroll for the upcoming regular season. Many handicappers have the opinion that the preseason games should be left alone and not bet on. I feel just the opposite. If you do your homework–the preseason offers sharps and squares a tremendous opportunity to make a lot of money. Here are my personal keys, stats, systems, angles, reasons, and teams to consider when betting NFL Preseason football in 2019.

1) Depth

 

This one is obvious. Jo public gets so worked up about the starters and skill position players on certain teams during the regular season. But they’re the same in the preseason. Teams that can go two-and three-deep (sometimes four-deep) at the skill positions have a decided advantage over a club that has a few stars that will be sitting after the first or second series. A perfect example of a team like that this season, is none other than the New Orleans Saints. Drew Brees, Teddy Bridgewater, Taysom Hill, and JT Barrett looks like a fearsome foursome. Even if Brees plays very little, the next three should give teams fits in August. Look for Hill & Barrett to have big preseason stats with their arms and legs, especially in the 3rd and 4th quarters. Don’t forget, the Saints have been running Sean Payton’s system for 12 years. On the flip side, the Cincinnati Bengals will break in a new head coach (see below), new offensive coordinator, and new defensive coordinator. Andy Dalton, Ryan Finley, Jeff Driskel, and Jacob Dolegala will be implementing a brand new offense. I think the Bengals will struggle on both sides of the ball for most of the preseason.

Quarterbacks and continuity are key. NFL Preseason wagers, just like those during the Regular Season, often come down to the last eight minutes of a game. So find teams that have solid depth at QB and/or has some experience or success in the league. They’ll have a tremendous advantage in the closing moments of a game against a third and/or fourth-string defense. The Saints have four very good options under Center. After going 3-1 SU and 3-1 ATS last preseason, they’re poised to have another winning preseason. Last year, the Saints got screwed in the playoffs. I would expect the Saints to play with a “chip” this preseason.

 

2) Experience

 

I don’t necessarily mean which team has the most grizzled veterans on it. In fact, experience can be a detriment. Most older players hate preseason games. And teams that have established players in certain positions or roles will often see those guys “mail it in” during the preseason because they know the games are “meaningless” and already have their “jobs” locked up.

However, experience is a key factor when it comes to handicapping coaches/systems. Organizations that haven’t experienced much turnaround have a significant advantage over those that are easing in a new brain trust. For example, New England has been running Josh McDaniels system since 2012. The Patriots are going to be much sharper than a team that is going through changes. Take the Denver Broncos for example. They are breaking in a new head coach (Vic Fangio), new offensive coordinator (Rich Scangarello), and new defensive coordinator (Ed Donatell). Keying on clubs that have familiarity & continuity, and finding teams that are much less comfortable with their new system is a big key when wagering on preseason games.

 

3) First-Year Head Coaches with new team (Full Season)

 

We have eight for the 2019-20 season in alphabetical order by team. First year head coaches can be tricky, but generally perform very well in their first August home game.They went 6-1 ATS in their first home game four years ago, 5-2 ATS three years ago, 4-1 ATS two seasons ago and 4-3 ATS last year. That adds up to a a bankrolling 19-7 ATS mark the last four preseasons combined! A lot of expectations are put on these guys coming in. They all want to show the Owner, General Manager, players, and fans that he is the right man for the job. Setting the tone early means playing to win in the preseason. I don’t recommend just blindly playing all these teams in their first home game!

Kliff Kingsbury  (Arizona Cardinals)

Zac Taylor (Cincinnati Bengals)

Freddie Kitchens  (Cleveland Browns)

Vic Fangio  (Denver Broncos)

Matt LaFleur (Green Bay Packers)

Brian Flores (Miami Dolphins)

Adam Gase  (NY Jets)

Bruce Arians (Tampa Bay Bucs)

4) Competition/Philosophy

 

If you know how head coaches were raised and what their philosophies are than you will have a big advantage this August. I know all the personalities/traits of every single HC in the NFL which helps me beat the books in August. I will give you one HC that treats to the preseason as the regular season. That would be John Harabaugh of the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are 13-0 ATS over the past three preseasons. His 33-12 ATS record in the preseason would have made you a small fortune. On the flip side, Jason Garrett of the Dallas Cowboys clearly hates the preseason. He uses August basically to scout his younger guys and it shows. Dallas went 0-4 ATS last year. Garrett’s 12-21 ATS record in the NFL preseason is the worst active record in August with at least 20 games played. The oddsmakers are going to inflate the Cowboy’s opponent lines this August. Be careful! Keep an eye on the Seattle Seahawks this August. Pete Carroll has always played to win in the preseason, evident by a 22-14 ATS record. Seattle went 0-4 ATS last preseason. That was the first time Pete Carroll and the Seahawks never cashed at least one preseason game. I would expect Seattle to make bettors money this August.

 

5) Motivation

If you watched the NFL for any number of years you should know that not every Head Coach cares about winning in the NFL Preseason. Different HC’s have different agendas when playing August Football and they all pretty much stick to their beliefs. I gave you three very good examples above that should hold true once again this upcoming preseason.

Each coach handles the preseason differently. Some put a premium on the second game. For some it’s the third or even the fourth. Some coaches just mess around and tinker with their lineups during the preseason and use it to evaluate their younger guys. But here’s the key – and this is a big difference between the regular season and preseason football – most coaches are forthright about what the game plan will be. All you have to do is a little research from the local beat writers.

 

6) Scheduling

 

The NFL preseason schedule generally isn’t too taxing on the teams and players. But there are quirks. The two teams that play the Hall of Fame Game are a good bet to fade in their next game. If some key players are a bit banged up then you can expect those guys to be watching in street clothes. Keep a close eye on how the players from the Broncos and Falcons come out of the Hall of Fame game. Also, NFL teams who play on the West Coast (with little to no humidity), and than travel to play a high humidity East Coast game. It would be wise to fade those West Coast teams, especially if installed as a favorite. This has worked extremely well over the past few years with the new OTA rules in place.

Jeff’s NFL Preseason system to consider

If you are looking for a very solid system/angle in the NFL preseason here is one to consider this year. Teams that begin 0-2 straight up over the last 12 years are 70-44 ATS in their very next game. Head Coaches, GM’s, and owners tend to get very nervous when they get off to a bad start, even in the preseason, and they have their team ready for that third game. Most undefeated teams will take that 0-2 team lightly, thus making those winless teams a smart play by the “Wise Guys”. If two 0-2 teams are playing each other, its a NO PLAY and that’s reflected in the record above.

Jeff’s #1 NFL Preseason Team to Play On in 2019

Seattle Seahawks. Pete Carroll has never had back-to-back losing preseasons. Seattle normally does very well in the preseason after losing in the playoffs the year before. Russell Wilson, Paxton Lynch, and Geno Smith all have fourth quarter experience. Lynch and Smith should have success going against 3rd and 4th string defenses.

Look for more Football articles in the coming weeks. Jeff was ranked No. 3 in the NFL last season, No. 3 in the 2017-18 NFL regular season, and No. 1 (tied) in the postseason at The Sports Monitor of OK, cashing just under 70%. Jeff has shown a profit in 7 straight football seasons, fully documented. Jeff is a 4x NFL Top 10 Handicapper. Early Bird Football and season packages are now available.

Good Luck this Football Season!

Do You Need Sports Betting Software?

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One of the most common questions we receive is whether or not a bookie needs to utilize betting software to run their business. The answer is absolutely. If you expect to compete with other bookies you need to ensure you can offer the same features. Sports bettors are used to technology nowadays and you’ll need betting software to retain your clients.

 

Benefits of Using Betting Software

 

  • Automation

Bettors expect to have their bets graded immediately after the result is final. The big PPH betting software providers also have other benefits such as clerks working 24/7 to ensure everything is automated for you, including grading wagers.

Plus, do you know how long it would take you each day to grade all of your clients bets? It takes a long time, especially once you begin to grow. You won’t have the time to focus on grading wagers or setting lines for every betting market. Bettors require the ability to bet on a wide range of sports and markets, which isn’t feasible if the process isn’t automated.

There are numerous other ways automation will help you out as a bookie. Your clients can open accounts instantly and securely. Privacy is important to bettors and most don’t want to have their betting history connected to their mobile phone number or email.

 

  • Reports

The leading betting software providers all generate automatic reports when requested. If you want to take a financial snapshot of your operation you can instantly with the dozens of reports available to you. You’ll be able to see player balances, credit limits, exposure (overall, by sport or by betting market), weekly/monthly reports and much more.

Trying to keep all of this data up to date using Excel or a similar program would take you hours upon hours every week. If you don’t have betting software to perform these tasks you’ll limit your growth in several ways. First off, maintaining balances, payouts, etc. takes too long for every client. Plus, spending time on these tasks takes marketing time away.

 

  • Technology

Betting software has come a long way in the last ten years. When you use betting software your clients will be able to wager on sports, but also gamble in an online casino and bet on horses in the racebook. Having more betting options for your players is a great way to increase your revenue per player and to retain your clients who expect these options.

 

The best betting software will also allow your players to bet 24/7 from anywhere. All of the top PPH shops are mobile accessible meaning your clients can access their accounts on their smartphone from anywhere in the world. Many bettors are busy individuals and won’t always have the time to get on a computer to place their bets.

 

In conclusion, you definitely need betting software to become a bookie. I’ve listed several of the main reasons why you need software to be a successful bookmaker. Keep in mind, there are numerous other benefits too, which we discuss further on this website. Attaining betting software is no longer expensive either, so you really don’t have a reason not to.

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Liverpool vs Barcelona

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It’s fight or flight time for Liverpool when they host Barcelona today in the second leg of the Champions League semi-finals down 3-0 in the aggregate. The English side has a money line of +105, making them favorites over the Spanish giants, who are at +210 with a draw set at +269.

 

Barcelona is actually coming off a 2-0 loss to Celta Vigo over the weekend. However, the Catalan club has already wrapped the La Liga championship, so it was a heavily rotated squad with Lionel Messi, Luis Suarez, and several others getting a rest. Prior to that, Barcelona had won five games in a row across all competitions, so their form isn’t an issue.

 

Meanwhile, Liverpool found themselves in a physical battle against Newcastle over the weekend. The Reds survived, winning 3-2 to keep their Premier League title hopes alive. However, they will have to refocus on Barcelona quickly while also keeping an eye toward Sunday’s Premier League finale against a tough Wolverhampton team.

Bloody and Beat Up

Sadly, Liverpool will be far from full strength for Tuesday’s clash with Barcelona. Roberto Firmino will miss the game due to a muscle injury that forced him to only be used as a sub during the first leg. Naby Keita is also unavailable after suffering a groin injury in the first leg against Barcelona. Most distressing is the status of Mohammed Salah, who left Saturday’s clash with Newcastle because of a head injury and is questionable at best to play Tuesday.

 

Assuming Salah misses the match, Liverpool will be down to only Sadio Mane from their three primary attacking players. That could open the door for Swiss international Xherdan Shaqiri to start after barely being used over the past few months. It could also force Divock Origi and Daniel Sturridge into action, which doesn’t necessarily favor Liverpool knowing they need at least three goals in 90 minutes to stay alive.

Time for Defense?

With the likes of Messi and Suarez, Barcelona is feared by opposing defenses, but the Spanish champions are likely to be on the defensive in this game. Despite Liverpool missing a few key players, the English side will be pressing high and try to go on the attack in hopes that an early goal or two can get the Anfield crowd behind them and give them a fighting chance in the second half. That could force Barcelona to make defense more of a priority than usual.

 

That being said, Liverpool actually had a slight advantage in the possession battle in the first leg, and the La Liga champs were able to keep them off the scoreboard. The duo of Messi and Suarez can also be deadly on the counterattack. Even with one of the best defensive sides in England, Liverpool conceded three goals in the first leg, and they could be even more vulnerable on the counter in the second leg.

 

Hollow Win

Even without Salah and Firmino, Liverpool is too dangerous on the attack not to find the back of the net in this game. However, Barcelona is smart enough to keep things organized at the back and now risk giving up three or more goals. Bet on Liverpool getting a 1-0 or 2-1 win but not doing enough to keep Barcelona from reaching the finals. We are really excited to bet on this match, and many others. If you are looking for a great spot to get this bet, and all the matches you want, make sure you check out one of the top pay per head bookie locations you will find. Head to Pay Per Head 247 and place a bet on this affair!

Online Sportsbooks Gearing Up for Huge Football Season

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Now that the United States Supreme Court has opened the doors to online sports gambling, gamblers are making a mad dash to find a great bookie for the upcoming NFL and NCAA College Football season. This year promises to be better than ever and there are more than a few teams that have a chance e to make the Superbowl.

 

How to Use Pay Per Head Player Activity Reports to Grow Your Bookie Business

 

The Eagles were not on too many peoples list this time last year to win it all but look at them now. In football, you never know and when one team gets on a roll like the Eagles dud, they can ride the wave to a title. Who will it be this year and can the Eagle repeat? Yes, they can repeat. Don’t forget the two headed monster at the quarterback position between Wentz and Foles. This team is stacked with greatness and they will absolutely be a tough contender throughout the season.

 

Now is the time that you must be thinking of the finding a great-top notch bookie service. There are hundreds of them out there but don’t sell yourself short. Find one that has a great reputation for quick and easy payouts and find one that offers competitive odds.

 

What to look for:

 

Find a worthy sportsbook that caters to football.

 

Now, this may sound strange. You are probably thinking that most every sportsbook caters to football. That’s true. Most sportsbooks absolutely offer it along with all the major sports. The key word here is “worthy”. Who gets your business this year and why; is the question that you should be asking.


Questions to live by before depositing to a sportsbook:


  •  Do they cater to American players?

  •  Do they have a standup reputation for paying out?

  •  Do they offer a 24/7 customer service hotline, with English speaking agents?

  •  What about bonuses, do they offer good ones or only ones that will kill you with rollover?

  •  Deposit options, are they quick easy and convenient?

  •  Are their lines/odds competitive?

 

Vegas Top Dog – Slow Season Got You Down – Find Value Betting WNBA


These are just a few of the many questions that you will want to ask yourself before laying down your hard-earned cash. There are untold numbers of online sportsbooks, how can you possibly know which one or ones are best for you? Think of who you have been with. Are you 100% happy with their services? Do they or have they met every promise that they made to you? What about transparency, do you feel they are honest and upfront about their rules, regulations, and policies? You work hard for a living; you want playing to be easy. Who wants to hassle with not getting paid? You gamble for fun, but you gamble to win money. When you win, you want to be paid. If you are unhappy or simply would like to look around at the competition this year, then you should do so. A smart player will always keep more than one sportsbook in their portfolio. You must have more than one.

2017 NFL Draft Preview

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​​VegasTopDogs 2017 NFL DRAFT PREVIEW –
***********************************************
With another NFL draft upcoming – that which has an excellent amount of skilled RBs in particular, with Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook and Christian McCaffrey, just to name s a few. And guys like Jonathan Allen, Kevin King and Myles Garrett coming out on the defensive side of the ball, this draft is going to be great.
The other positions, we have some guys who some are leery of buying fully in on. The position we are looking at, as one of the most questionable slots is the QB position. the very intriguing DeShone Kizer, Texas Tech big armed Patrick Mahomes and dual threat Deshaun Watson are looked at as some of the top QBs heading into the draft. They all have some pros, but all certainly have their obvious cons.
Kizer was only completing 58% of his passes on the season in 2016.
Mahomes had not been a great leader in 2016, losing 7 games, nothing to be too excited about.
Watson threw 17 picks.
Regardless – we are going to watch and we are going to cheer and sometimes complain at the picks. Here, we will take a projective look at the 1st rd Draft projections as to who will draft who.
Let’s get it underway!
1. Cleveland Browns: Myles Garrett – DE – Texas A&M
2. San Francisco 49ers: Jonathan Allen -DT – Alabama
3. Chicago Bears: Marshon Lattimore – CB – Ohio State
4. Jacksonville Jaguars: Solomon Thomas – DT – Stanford
5. Tennessee Titans (from Rams): Mike Williams – WR – Clemson
6. NY Jets: Deshaun Watson – QB – Clemson
7. LA Chargers: O.J. Howard – TE – Alabama
8. Carolina Panthers: Derek Barnett – DE – Tennessee
9. Cincinnati Bengals: Takk McKinley – DE – UCLA
10. Buffalo Bills: Malik Hooker – S – Ohio State
11. New Orleans Saints: Forrest Lamp – OG – W Kentucky
12. Cleveland Browns (from Eagles): Mitch Trubisky – QB – North Carolina
13. Arizona Cardinals: John Ross – WR – Washington
14. Philadelphia Eagles (from Vikings): Leonard Fournette – RB – LSU
15. Indianapolis Colts: Dalvin Cook – RB – Florida State
16. Baltimore Ravens: Corey Davis – WR – Western Michigan
17. Washington Redskins: Christian McCaffrey – RB – Stanford
18. Tennessee Titans: Jamal Adams – S – LSU
19. Tamps Bay Buccaneers: Reuben Foster – LB – Alabama
20. Denver Broncos: Garett Bolles – OT – Utah
21. Detroit Lions: Charles Harris – LB – Missouri
22. Miami Dolphins: Cam Robinson – OT – Alabama
23. NY Giants: TJ Watt – OLB – Wisconsin
24. Oakland Raiders: Gareon Conley – CB – Ohio State
25. Houston Texans: DeShone Kizer – QB – Notre Dame
26. Seattle Seahawks: Kevin King – CB – Washington
27. Kansas City Chiefs: Jarrad Davis – LB – Florida
28. Dallas Cowboys: Taco Charlton – DE – Michigan
29. Green Bay Packers: Quincy Wilson – CB – Florida
30. Pittsburgh Steelers: Marlon Humphrey – CB – Alabama
31. Atlanta Falcons: Malik McDowell – DL – Michigan State
32. New Orleans Saints (from Patriots): Patrick Mahomes – QB – Texas Tech
So let’s sit back get ready for our teams with hearts pounding, and await what names we hear called out to us from that podium.
The 2017 football season is gong to arrive eventually with mini-camps starting in just a few months – now it’s just time to be patient, and get through our all-too lengthy offseason, and wait to see who is unleashed on the league as rookie phenoms, and the inevitable expected busts, that we all know are going to be there.

Betting the NFL Preseason in 2016

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PreSeason 2016

Betting the NFL Preseason in 2016

You will hear people say “Don’t bet on NFL Preseason Football”. Big Mistake! It’s actually easier than capping the regular season. In most cases you can read ahead of time the exact game plan for each team. I feel the NFL preseason is a great opportunity to start and build a nice bankroll for the upcoming regular season.

Many handicappers have the opinion that the preseason games should be left alone and not bet on. I feel just the opposite. If you do your homework, the preseason offers the betting public a tremendous chance to make a lot of money. Here are some things to consider when betting NFL Preseason football in 2016.

1) Depth

 

This one is obvious. Jo public gets so worked up about the starters and skill position players on certain teams during the regular season. But they’re the same in the preseason. Teams that can go two-and three-deep (sometimes four-deep) at the skill positions have a decided advantage over a club that has a few stars that will be sitting after the first or second series. A perfect example of a team like that this season, is no other than the San Diego Chargers. They have four solid quarterbacks that should help to win games in August. Or, keep games close. Philip Rivers, Kellen Clemens, Zack Mettenberger all have NFL game experience. They signed QB Mike Bercovici out of Arizona State. He’s not big but has a strong arm while putting up some lofty numbers in College. All four QB’s will have lots of success going up against second, third, and sometimes fourth-string defenses. The Chargers have a distinct advantage over a club like the Cincinnati Bengals, who have a solid #1 in Andy Daulton, an up-and-down #2 in A.J. McCaron, but unproven #3 & #4 in Keith Wenning and Joe Licata respectively.

The Bengals will also be learning a new offense under first-year coordinator Ken Zampese. He’s been with the organization as QB coach since 2003 so that helps, but he’ll be calling plays for the first time this August. There will be an adjustment period early on. The Chargers welcome back Ken Whisenhunt as offensive coordinator where the team put up big numbers back in 2013. The Chargers were ranked 5th in total offense compared to 31st the year before. San Diego loves the offense under Whisenhunt and all the pieces are in place. The Chargers should have a very successful preseason and could be a sleeper team in the AFC West. Look for RB Melvin Gordon to have a much better sophomore season than his 2015 rookie campaign.

Quarterbacks and continuity are key. NFL Preseason wagers, just like those during the Regular Season, often come down to the last eight minutes of a game. So find teams that have solid depth at QB and/or has some experience or success in the league. They’ll have a tremendous advantage in the closing moments of a game against a third and/or fourth-string defense.

 

2) Experience

 

I don’t necessarily mean which team has the most grizzled veterans on it. In fact, experience can be a detriment. Most Vets hate preseason games. And teams that have established players in certain positions or roles will often see those guys mail it in during the preseason because they know the games are “meaningless” and already have their “jobs” locked up.

However, experience is a key factor when it comes to coaching systems. Organizations that haven’t experienced much turnaround have a significant advantage over those that are easing in a new brain trust. For example, New England has been running Bill Bellichek’s/Josh McDaniels system since 2012, as too have the Pittsburgh Steelers with Todd Haley. The Patriots and Steelers are going to be much sharper than a team that is changing offenses. Take the Kansas City Chiefs for example. They are breaking in two rookie offensive coordinators in Brad Childress and Matt Nagy. Two voices are not better than one when trying to learn a new offense. Andy Reid is still going to call the plays. There is going to be a major adjustment period for the Chiefs on offense this August. Keying on clubs that have familiarity & continuity, and finding clubs that are much less comfortable with their new systems is a big key when wagering on preseason games.

 

3) First-Year Head Coaches with new team (Full Season)

 

We have seven for the 2016-17 season once again after seven made their debuts two seasons ago. First year head coaches can be tricky but generally perform very well in their first August home game.They went 6-1 ATS in their first home game last preseason! A lot of expectations are put on these guys coming in. They want to show the Owner, General Manager, and fans that he is the right man for the job. Setting the tone early means playing to win in the preseason. Here are the Lucky 7 this year.

Hue Jackson (BROWNS)

Adam Gase (DOLPHINS)

Ben McAdoo (GIANTS)

Doug Pederson (EAGLES)

Chip Kelly (49ers)

Dirk Koetter (BUCCANEERS)

Mike Mularkey (TITANS)

4) Competition/Philosophy

 

If you know how head coaches were raised and what their philosophies are than you will have a big advantage this August. I know all the personalities/traits of every single HC in the NFL which helps me beat the books in August. I will give you one HC that preaches competition from his players down to the ball boy. That would be Pete Carroll of the Seattle Seahawks. His philosophy at USC was to create competition along with a winning attitude. That has continued since moving to the NFL. Pete Carroll is 27-13 ATS in his career when playing in August. Coming off his Super Bowl loss against New England, the Seahawks went 2-2 ATS last preseason. I would expect a much better effort this year. On the flip side is Jason Garrett of the Dallas Cowboys. He uses the preseason basically to scout his younger guys and it shows. His 6-14 ATS record in the NFL preseason is the worst active record in August with at least 20 games played.

 

5) Motivation

If you watched the NFL for any number of years you should know that not every Head Coach cares about winning in the NFL Preseason. Different HC’s have different agendas when playing August Football and they all pretty much stick to their beliefs. I gave you two very good examples above that should hold true once again this upcoming season.

Each coach handles the preseason differently. Some put a premium on the second game. For some it’s the third or even the fourth. Some coaches just mess around and tinker with their lineups during the preseason and use it to evaluate their younger guys. But here’s the key – and this is a big difference between the regular season and preseason football – most coaches are forthright about what the game plan will be. All you have to do is a little research from the local beat writers.

 

6) Scheduling

 

The preseason schedule generally isn’t too taxing on the teams and players. But there are quirks. The two teams that play the Hall of Fame Game are a good bet to fade in their next game. If some key players are a bit banged up then you can expect those guys to be watching in street clothes. Keep a close watch on how the players from the Steelers and Colts come out of the Hall of Fame game. Also, NFL teams who play on the West Coast (with little to no humidity), and than travel to play a high humidity East Coast game. It would be wise to fade those West Coast teams especially if installed as a favorite.

7) Fading Super Bowl participants as significant Chalk

Now, it’s hard to just blindly play against Super Bowl teams from the previous season (Carolina/Denver) as a favorite of 7 or more points in every preseason game. You have to pick your spots. Over the past five seasons alone, these teams are just 3-9-2 ATS, so you would have made a huge profit. The oddsmakers have caught on in recent years and you will notice very few preseason games with any point spread of 7 or more especially early on.

Jeff’s NFL Preseason system to consider

If you are looking for a very solid system/angle in the NFL preseason, here is one to consider this year. Teams that begin 0-2 straight up over the last ten years are 54-36 ATS in their very next game. Head Coaches/owners tend to get very nervous when they get off to a bad start, even in the preseason, and they have their team ready for that third game. Most teams will take that 0-2 team lightly, thus making those winless teams a smart play by the “Wise Guys”. If two 0-2 teams are facing each other, its a no play and that’s reflected in the record above.

 

Look for more Football articles in the coming weeks. Jeff was ranked No.2 in the 2014-15 NFL regular season at The Sports Monitor of OK, cashing just under 70%. Jeff has shown a profit in six of the past seven years in football, fully documented. Early Bird Football packages are now on sale.

by Jeff Hochman for VegasTopDogs.com