Category: VegasTopDogs.com Reports

The NY Jets deserve a Star QB

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The Jets have had their share of screw ups with drafting QBs over the years. Drafting Geno Smith in 2013 at the 39th overall spot, less than 6000 YDs and a 58% completion rate later – he is gone. Smith drudged up good pocket passer comparisons – but he suffered with – not being able to complete passes. Chad Pennington back in 2000 at the 18th position, who was weak armed and injury prone. Mark Sanchez and 5 spot – he is no longer there. “The Sanchise” helped the Jets to the playoffs – but he of course faded away as the team did. And of course, Christian Hackenberg in 2016. Do we need to go there?
Having a true franchise QB could change them immensely
The Jets love the laid-back, Sam Darnold personality, and they don’t have to worry about him ending up across the headlines in tabloids and they have some good things around him. They have Le’Veon Bell at RB now, Jamison Crowder at WR, who brings steady hands and good route runner, and they have a Head Coach that believes in his future and his ability.
Bell can help the New York offense – and he can help dictate coverages a bit. Making Darnold’s job a bit easier, his ability to get open underneath on routes and as a check down option should immensely help Sam – last year, he didn’t have a RB who could be a threat in both the run and pass. Now he has arguably one of the best in the league with Bell being added, and Darnold struggled with underneath throws – Bell was supposed to upgrade that with his soft hands. Bell catching passes on the outside with some guys who should be able to make plays. Ty Montgomery and Jamison Crowder should be able to help open up the box for him – Crowder has the biggest upside to do that, as he brings a major slot threat.
Over the last 20 years, removing Darnold from the equation – their QBs have thrown a total of 248 TD passes to 232 ints. New York has had just 2 guys throw 20+ TDs in a season, and that was only done 2 times.
Overall.
In 20 years.
They have suffered longingly and painfully at that position. Darnold has been put into the position to have a huge chance to try and reverse their “curse.” But, the organization needs to continue to build around him.
The last QB the New York Jets had that was even considered in the top 15 QBs of the league – was who?
Vinny Testaverde?
Boomer Esiason?
Ken O’Brien?
Many feel he is very talented and now he has been able to get his feet wet – and get that valuable experience. At this point, with just 17 games under his belt, 3682 YDs, 22 TD passes, and a low completion rate – what kind of promise are we really looking at? Last year, Darnold was ok at times – but from what I’ve seen on the field – I am still not sure he’ll be a great QB in the league. I just don’t know if I am ready to believe in Sam Darnold quite yet. With 9 games of 230 YDs or less passing – 8 games of 1 TD pass or less and 7 games having completed 58% or less of his attempts. He brings some moxie to the position – but also brings some real questions – he obviously lacks experience and the veteran leadership that the Jets need, although he has demonstrated quick decision making, and is able to move the ball around some.
I want Darnold to be successful for the Jets – they need to have someone to give them hope on that team. They deserve it, after the Mark Sanchez’s and the Geno Smith’s they have endured. New York hasn’t really been a competitor for their division for years – 12 years of being in 3rd place or worse in the last 20 years, winning the division just 5% of the time. Of course, playing in a division with Tom Brady and the Pats doesn’t help – but they have finished 2nd only 35% of the time.
Still not good.
Sam needs to keep learning, and not keep making the same mistakes – any young QB should get better by playing in games – he is making some strides for the Jets – but there is a lot on his 6-3 shoulders. How much he is to be believed in – is a question only he can answer for.

Monday Night Football Doubleheader Betting Previews

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Week one of the 2019 NFL season will wrap up on Monday night, and will feature a pair of games. Playing two games on Monday Night Football in week one has been the tradition of late, and that won’t change this season. The New Orleans Saints host the Houston Texans in the first game, and the Oakland Raiders are hosting the Denver Broncos in the finale. Game one will feature a pair of playoff teams from a season ago, and the night cap will have a few teams who are looking to improve greatly in 2019. Let’s take a quick look at each of these games, with a betting prediction and pick for each of them.

Houston Texans at New Orleans Saints:

The first game of the night should be the best one of the two. Both of these teams reached the playoffs a season ago, and they are both heavily favored to win their division this season. The Saints want to play fast, and score a ton of points, and the Houston Texans have one of the most feared defenses in the NFL. The New Orleans Saints are -7.0 point favorites over the Texans in this game.

The Saints have one of the all-time great quarterbacks in Drew Brees, and a pair of talented weapons in Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara. Kamara is a terrific dual-threat on offense, and he should have the ball in his hands a ton in this game. Thomas is the top receiving target, and has been putting up eye popping numbers. New Orleans gave up a ton of passing yards a season ago, but their rush defense was one of the best in the league. The Saints will give up some points, but their offense will score as well.

Houston also has a talented offense led by quarterback Deshaun Watson. The Texans suffered a tough blow in the preseason when running back Lamar Miller went down with a knee injury. The Texans still have a great defense led by JJ Watt, but they will need to put up plenty of points in this one. Bet the Saints -7.0 over the Texans in the series opener. When betting the Saints; check out our favorite pay per head bookie site at https://www.a1pph.com/.

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders:

The second game of the doubleheader is likely to be a lot sloppier in the first, but it should be every bit as competitive. Neither of these teams is expected to make the playoffs this season, but crazier things have happened in the National Football League. The Oakland Raiders are slim -1.0 point favorites over the Denver Broncos in this game.

Denver has had all kinds of trouble finding a quarterback in the last few seasons, and so they changed their strategy. The Broncos brought in veteran Joe Flacco from the Baltimore Ravens, and he should have an impact on the offensive side of the ball. The Broncos will also have a new head coach in Vic Fangio, and he is known as being a great defensive mind. Denver has the talent and personnel to really put some pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and Derek Carr better keep his head on a swivel in this game.

The Oakland Raiders were a mess on both sides of the ball a season ago, and weren’t even able to manage one sack per game. Oakland let Khalil Mack go before the start of the 2018 season, and it killed their chances of being a solid team. The Raiders also struggled mightily on offense, averaging just 18.1 points per game. Bringing in Antonio Brown should help out a ton, but they still have several roster spots that are question marks. Oakland playing at home will make all the difference in the world in this game, and betting the Raiders -1.0 over the Broncos is the smart play here. 

Bet the Raiders -1 over the Broncos at our favorite pay per head bookie site at https://www.a1pph.com/.

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NFL SUPER BOWL GAME BREAKDOWN

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The Super Bowl is on its way, along with all the hype and analysis
that comes with it. We get the New England Patriots, who are in their
4th Super Bowl in the last 7 years, vs the LA Rams, the team that has
gone through 13 losing seasons since 2004, but now have a new winning
and confident culture led by 33 year old Head Coach, Sean McVay.

New England has shown faith and resiliency with their aging QB, yet
again. The Rams are the hot young team with a flashy Head Coach, and
their young QB. What we are going to do, is a breakdown of each team
with their best attributes and possible weaknesses. To take a good
look at what they bring to the game, and who has the potential upper
hand in this seasons finale.

New England Patriots / 11-5
HEAD COACH: Bill Belichick
PPG / NFL RANK: 27.3 / 4th
OPPG / NFL RANK: 20.3 / 7th

PROS:
They have the man who fights all comers and wins, they have a player
who just keeps churning out W’s and still keeps putting up 4000 YDs
and 30TDs / year in Brady. Any team with Tom Brady on their roster has
a better chance to win than most.

New England has been in 16 postseasons over the last 18 seasons, this
is their 4th big game in the last 7 seasons. Regardless of if you like
them, hate them, or feel complete apathy towards them, this is still
their league, until they are buried for one and for all. At least
until Tom Brady retires, will the rest of the league feels like they
are the team to beat.

CONS:
Away from their home, the Patriots have not been great. With a 3-5
record and putting up just 21ppg, 6 below their average, and giving up
24ppg, 4 more than average. Although this game wouldn’t be considered
an away game, no more than away for both teams, and New England likely
have a larger fanbase than the Rams – but they still aren’t in in
their own stadium.

The run defense of New England is a very real problem. This season
having given up 4.9 YPC, and 6 games of 130 or more on the ground to
opponents, and the Rams certainly have a brutal running attack with
Gurley and Anderson running the rock. Which makes strength vs weakness
a classic and intriguing story to watch here.

XFACTOR:
James White and his sneaky ability to run for key yards and be able to
move the ball with surprising ease is going to be key. White is a guy
with great ability to get into open pockets and a smooth ability to
make big plays vs defenses, and Belichick loves to use him when teams
are on the backpedal. When White has 5 or more carries the Pats are
10-0.

========================================

Los Angeles Rams / 13-3
HEAD COACH: Sean McVay
PPG / NFL RANK: 32.9 / 2nd
OPPG / NFL RANK: 24.0 / 20th

PROS:
The balance between passing and running the ball is a distinct
advantage Los Angeles has here. With 2 WRs with 1200+ yard receiving
years, an aerial attack with a QB who can light it up for 300 in a
flash, along with a running game that ranked 2nd in the league with 23
TDs on the ground and had over 2200 YDs on the ground.

The brutal RB tandem of Todd Gurley and 230lb RB, C.J. Anderson is
awesome. Gurley is a really special back, who has produced double
digit TDs on the ground for 3 of the last 4 seasons, and had a total
of 1831 yards, including 580 in the air. Anderson has been a fantastic
find for Los Angeles – Anderson brings the punishment factor, that can
beat on or run through a weakened and tired Dline.

Aaron Donald and his relentlessness is coming, beware New England. The
27 year old DT brings a pass rush that the Pats will struggle to stop,
he is a game changer, and is a huge problem to deal with for any team,
and will be here vs the Pats. Bringing his league leading 20.5 sacks –
he will be awfully tough to control at the line.

CONS:
The Rams team with big named DBs, Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib lack a
great passing defense. Giving up 31 TDs in the air this year they have
shown a lack of discipline when defending WRs. Which if you are a Pats
fan, you are ecstatic to have Julian Edelman and Brady clicking the
way they have been over the last 2 games. 16 catches, 247 YDs, and
15.4 YPC is going to be awfully hard for the Rams DBs to handle.

Sean McVay and his 24 year old QB, Jared Goff, can get pass heavy at
times. With 5 games where he threw 40 or more times, and 6 games of
running for less than 95 yards, they are not true to form and lack the
punch when they don’t move the ball on the ground. When they fall into
basing their offensive game scheme behind Goff and throwing the ball –
they are 2-3, the Rams and Goff need to run the ball. Gurley is still
the heart and soul of this team, and will be key here in this huge
matchup.

XFACTOR:
How the Rams and Wade Phillips defend the run game is going to be
enormously important. When they give up 110 or less on the ground,
they are 11-0, if they keep the running game of the Pats to those kind
of numbers or less, lock this in, the Los Angeles Rams will roll. But
if the Pats start dictating the pace and the Oline here with White and
Sony Michel, the Pats will likely be holding the trophy at the end.

Would Le’Veon Bell have made a difference in the Steelers season

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The Steelers ended the 2018 season out of the playoffs, for the 1st
time over 4 years.  Some feel if Le’Veon Bell was on the field this
year, the Steelers would have made the playoffs. Maybe they wouldn’t
have tied the Browns in week 1 with Bell – maybe they wouldn’t have
lost to the Raiders either. But realistically, we don’t know. Maybe
Ben would have tried to make a boneheaded throw into the endzone vs
the Browns and lost the game there. As he already was having a poor
game with a 56% completion rate and 3 picks. It is easy to speculate,
we all do, but Le’Veon Bell has also played poorly vs Oakland in the
past, maybe he would have done nothing again. Maybe Le’Veon runs for
his 30 yrds and coughs one up?

Many people think Bell could have taken Pittsburgh Steelers to the
Bowl, but it was not because they didn’t have Bell, they had so many
other serious issues rather than just not having Bell on the field.
James Conner did just fine, with a 4.5 YPC, 55 catches, and 12 TDs, at
times, he looked even better than Bell. He put the ball on the field 4
times in the season, and some screamed about that. Hate to break it to
you, Bell also fumbled, with 3 in 2017 and 7 over the last 27 games,
it happens. We cant expect a guy running through a line of 340lb
strong men, hitting, slapping, pulling, and shoving then more
aggressive, fast and skilled men hitting them and punching the ball to
not put the ball on the ground sometimes.

It all comes down to the money (as always) – and Le’Veon Bell thinks
he is worth essentially double pay, because of what he brings to the
field in running and receiving. Seriously? There are a multitude of
great RBs who are awesome players, like Ezekiel Elliott, Todd Gurley,
and Alvin Kamara, who all churn out big numbers on the ground and in
the air. Le’Veon Bell you are just another talented RB, but nothing
out of the ordinary, he is a great RB, but to now expand and say that
you are a utility player so now should be paid like a mixture between
the 2 positions, I don’t think so. No one player is bigger than the
team, end of story.

James Conner was a great 3 down back all year with running the ball,
blocking and catching out of the backfield. He played hard, and
deserved all the accolades he got for what he put on the field.
Le’Veon Bell with his history, it isn’t all that unlikely he would
have gotten injured sometime through the season. He has missed an
average of 5 games/season since 2015 – either through injury or being
removed from playing. And now tack on another 16 games missed – simply
because he wanted more money. The question of love and his dedication
to the game has taken a firm hold of many.

Ben Roethlisberger led the league in picks, with 16 – tied for the 2nd
most in 15 seasons for Pittsburgh, and had a bunch of stupid and
mistimed horrendous red zone blunders. He seemed bored and lost at
times, which made him less dangerous and off with his chemistry with
his receivers as well. I think Ben and his bad play is just as much to
eat the blame for their letdown season, with 4 games of completing
less than 60% of his passes and 4 games with 2+ picks thrown. The
Steelers really needed to get some element of surprise this year. Most
teams knew they were passing the ball the vast majority of the time,
as they put the ball in the air around 66% of the time. As they ran 5
wide sets quite frequently.

The porous passing Steelers defense was a huge reason why they missed
the playoffs. Their 2 steps too slow secondary, with just 8 picks, and
giving up 27 TDs in the air could never hold things together.
Especially when facing playoff caliber teams like the Saints and the
Chiefs, where they gave up 313 and 322, and they gave up 31 and 42
points in each.

Truth is, Le’Veon Bell would not have gotten the Pittsburgh Steelers
to the playoffs. His skills on the field are great and his timey and
patient ability to run on the field is great to watch for a Pittsburgh
Steelers fan and as a football fan, but he wasn’t leading them to the
promised land. He would have been a tough threat to deal with on
offense, his extra catches out of the backfield would have been nice
to have, as he is a massive receiving threat, with 312 catches over 62
games, and a solid number of 8.5 YDs/catch, along with 7TDs in the
air. The Steelers didn’t have quite the same fear factor coming out
running routes this year with James Conner, but he did more than a
fine job in the backfield for Ben and company.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have a whole lot more going on than just the
Le’Veon Bell situation. Between Ben Roethlisberger, terrible play
calling, Antonio Brown pouting on the sidelines, and who ever knew if
there DBs were going to show up. They have to figure some stuff out on
that team before thinking about SuperBowls anytime soon.

CLEMSON VS ALABAMA AND PROPS: THE WAY TO WIN

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This 2018-19 NCAA College Football season has been a long one, but a very good one indeed. It was exactly what every fan had hoped for and much more. From a gambling perspective it was even better. This was the year to make a lot of money. The big named programs covered week in and week out, many of the mid-tier programs were better than ever and surprised a lot of people. Overall, it was a great year to bet on college football.

 

Clemson Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Preview and Predictions

 

The good news, there is still time to win money! The season may be over but there is one last shot to rake it in and big. This championship game on Monday night is going to be one of the best that college fans have ever witnessed. It matters not if you hate Alabama, hate Clemson, hate the ACC or hate the SEC. What matters is making money. Who cares what teams are playing? What matters is who can win this thing and who has the better chance to win the team props. There are some really good ones, so be sure to ask your bookmaker about them and where to find them. Betting the props in this game is a much better way to go this year than betting sides or totals. Call your online bookie and ask.  

 

Online Sportsbooks Remain the ‘Best Bet’ for US Players

 

Here we are, the last hurrah, the final chapter that closes the book on the season. The Clemson Tigers come in with a 14-0 record and the Alabama Crimson tide come in with a 14-0 record. We all know that Nick Saban has done everything. This guy is 146-20 since 2007 as head coach of the Tide and has count them—Five national titles and this would be number six at Alabama, since taking over in 07.

 

Offshore Sportsbooks vs. Sports Betting in the US

 

Clemson is the only team to have beaten Alabama in a title game since Saban took over. Dabo Swinney is the second best coach in all of college football and his record proves it. He will have his team ready to play ball and this game will go to the last minute, right down to the wire and will be ever so close.

 

Props to look for:

 

  1. Alternative point spreads— this is a fun way to play a football game and especially fun if you have a particular rooting interest. It can certainly be a way to make some nice cash but also a way to further your chances of actually winning something. An alternative line shaves point off the favorite and adds points to the underdog. In a game like this one, an alternative spread can turn out extremely valuable. As you take or give points the price goes up, but you are certainly giving yourself a much better shot at winning the game. What would you rather play, Clemson + 5.5 or Clemson + .5? Maybe you like Alabama at -5.5, what would you rather play, -5.5 or -.5? On down the line Alternative spreads go. We have given you an example but again, check with your favorite online bookie.

 

  1. Winning Margin— another fun prop, that lets you bet the amount you think one team can win by, over another.

 

  1. Race to points— which team hits a certain number first? A big money maker if you play your cards right.

 

  1. Team to score first, total touchdowns by one team or the other team, first score method how many field goals, highest scoring quarter, total sacks, game to go overtime…. And many more.

 

Have fun with this game and bet the props. Dial up your bookie and find what props you like and know that this is the way in this game. Who knows who wins this thing… it’s going to be close. Betting the props is the best way to approach this years NCAA National CFB Championship Game.

 

Can LeSean McCoy still lead the BIlls as a RB1

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The 5-foot-11, 210-pound LeSean McCoy, who’s in his 10th season, and his 4th in Buffalo, after starring for 6 seasons in Philly, has been a great playmaker as both a runner and a receiver. He has loaded up 724 carries over the last 3 seasons along with 141 receptions – but he’s now the magical and dreaded 30 – so it’s a legit question if he can put together another 1000 YD season in NFL action this year..
McCoy just came off a season where he rumbled around the gridiron for 1138 yards and 6 TDs, which would give the majority of teams a confident feeling as to what they were packing in their backfield. Then there is also that shadowing feeling that LeSean was still a disappointment for the Bills in 2017 with what he put out on the field.
After running off with the NFL’s rushing title in 2013 and racking up 2146 yards from scrimmage for the Eagles with 11 total TDs – he had some problems in Buffalo busting out behind a subpar Bills offensive line. Sometimes finding himself trying to do too much. With games of just 3.9 avg/carry in 9 of 16 games in 2017 he did have his share of issues. Although a season average of 4.0 yards a carry is ok – it is also the lowest of his career – as far well below his career avg of 4.6 YPC. Yet, McCoy is still viewed at as the veteran RB for Buffalo who fits the modern day RB model with his feet and skilled hands.
The versatile RB has held up pretty well throughout his excellent and lengthy career when looking at how many yards he has put up. Having dealt with really no significant injuries besides the MCL issue back in 2015 – he has been pretty healthy.  LeSean didn’t break down last year with his Buffalo career high of 287 carries – but can he actually handle 260+ carries more? And he is now 30 years old – he knows the history when playing as a 30 year old RB are never great.
He is not the quick jump step runner who blew to the outside zone as much as he used to do back in years past, but he still had managed some really good runs in 2017 – but it did seem that his best runs were more out of desperation more than evasive ones. McCoy found ways to break tackles consistently enough and find a way to eat up some tough yards, and he was still actually one of the lone offensive bright spots in 2017 for the Bills. And as we know – Buffalo has some serious offense needs – as they were just 22nd in ppg the NFL and scored 24 or more in just 5 of 16 games. But if they could try to combine a veteran runner like McCoy with an improved O-line, and gear up a talented young QB with Josh Allen and 6-5 WR Kelvin Benjamin opening up DBs – they can try to become a far better offense than they through on the field in 2017.
But, if we are being truthful, he just doesn’t seem to have the East / West quickness and enough of the long speed to make enough big plays when he breaks into the open that he used to have. But, with that being said, as long as LeSean can stay on the field, and stay out of trouble off the field – he can still be helpful to his team – even if he doesn’t have the decisive, explosive plays as much as he did when he was 25 years old.

Scherzer Well on Way to Cy Young: Who’s a Good Bet?

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What Max Scherzer is doing is just well classic Max Scherzer. This guy is off the baseball hook right now and it seems that nobody can stop him. The bookies keep the juice flowing on this kind of pitching consistency and the only way to beat the man is by doing just that; laying the juice. It’s tough to lay -220 but it is what it is. Sooner or later he will lose a game and the juice will come back down to earth for the next game.

 

The Nationals are coming off of a tough road weekend in Atlanta where they dropped three of four games and are now trailing the Braves in the NL East by 1.5 games. Unbelievably, the only win in Atlanta came on Saturday in extra innings when Scherzer hit the game winning single in the 14th. Scherzer’s last outing was a dandy with 12 strikeouts in 8 scoreless over Baltimore to record his 150th career win.

 

10 Star Picks – Basketball Betting – Bettors Looking for Angle NBA Finals

 

The Nationals are not a team to be betting on right now, as a matter of fact, they might be a good team to bet against! Scherzer is whom one should think of betting on. He is simply lights out and he gets wins. How long can it continue? As long as he stays healthy. Could we see a 25 game winner this year in baseball? Yes, and if anybody has the chance to do it, it’s Max Scherzer.

 

VTG – MLB Baseball – Mariners Becoming a Good Bet?

 

Run Lines: Should you bet them?

 

Yes, yes, and yes, you should absolutely bet them and especially Max Scherzer, he gets run supports. Check out the stats…

Max Scherzer’s 9 wins:

 

March 30th @ Cincinnati 2-0

April 9th vs. Atlanta 2-0

April 14th vs. Colorado 6-2

April 20th @ LA Dodgers 5-2

April 25th @ San Francisco 15-2

May 1st vs. Pittsburgh 12-4

May 7th @ San Diego 8-5

May 11th @ Arizona 3-1

May 25th @ Miami 9-5

May 30th @ Baltimore 2-0

 

As you can see from all nine of Scherzer’s wins, he gets run support. He has covered the run line in every game with exception of his one loss on April 4th to Atlanta, 7-1. This guy is close to being a run line– covering juggernaut. When he takes the mound, the Nationals show up to play ball and the not only hit, they play defense. Seven out of Scherzer’s nine wins have come by way of the road. This guy is fearless and will go after anyone on any day in any ball park. He is intimidated by nobody.

 

10 Star Picks – Warriors Take Commanding Lead,  Where Do the Cav’s Go from Here?

 

Here is the good news, on Tuesday night, the sportsbooks have the runline set at -120. Now the numbers tell you that this is a bargain. Could he have an off night, of course, it’s not likely but it could happen?  All pitchers have an off night every now and then. Scherzer won’t win every game he starts but he will win a pile of them. Only four of the nine wins listed above, were won by 2 runs or less. The rest of the games were won by 4, 3, 13, 8, 3, and 4. These are the kinds of numbers that sharp players look for.

 

Betting Baseball: Four Rules for Success

If you find yourself frustrated with high priced money lines (and who doesn’t) it pays to do your homework when it comes to runline betting. You can save a lot of money and make a lot of money. Sure Scherzer could lose, there is no guarantee and this is exactly why they call it a gamble. But you can bet the farm that Scherzer will get right back on the horse and continue winning. He’s a great play on the moneyline wager.  

Handicapping the NCAA Tournament

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March Madness is finally here and gamblers everywhere are looking for advice. Not only are they looking for advice, they are looking for direction and they want to know who to bet on. The average gambler has very little idea who to bet on but there is one sure thing; they are going to bet. March is easily the busiest time of year for not only Las Vegas, Nevada, it’s also the busiest time of year for the online sports betting.

There is not a more bet on sport than college basketball. The NCAA is easily the largest revenue maker for the betting industry and March is easily the busiest month in all of sports betting. Suffice it to say, somebody is making an enormous amount of money. Who is raking in the profits? Is it the sportsbooks-the bookies worldwide or is it the gambler? It’s safe to say that the gambler is not seeing the profits. The sportsbooks are raking it in by the boatload. Somebody is getting rich and it seems that it’s not the gambler.

A gambler is an investor. Gambling is an investment and March is the best time of year to see a huge return on the investment. So why is it that the banks (sportsbooks, bookies) are making all the profits? There is a very simple answer to what may seem like a complex question.

Related: Pay Per head services are on the rise and for good reason.

 

When investors make decisions to place their money in a market or purchase a stock they usually get some good advice from investors that have studied the market, from investors that are in the know and from people that are educated in that particular field. It’s certainly possible to get investing advice from a mechanic and it may even be good advice in the short term but will it last long term?

 

Who is the best person to get betting advice from?

 

Is it from people who bet? There are a lot of people who bet, let’s face the facts, not all of these people are successful. Remember who is getting rich here. It’s not the gamblers, or the sportsbooks would no longer be in business. Just as in the banking world, the gambling world has professional forecasters that study games. They do this for a living and they are good at it. Predicting sports has become a science and a multimillion dollar industry in its own right.

 

Here is the key to some success when betting the NCAA Tournament.

 

Find great forecasters, find people who know what they are talking about. Everyone has an opinion when it comes to sports but not everyone can be trusted with your money. You work too hard to throw it away. Would you take medical advice from someone that you had never heard of or someone that came with no verifiable references or experience?  

 

Start booking online with Realbookies.com software

There are outstanding services available on the web. If you are looking for some help this year, than by all means, get help. Don’t go March alone! Get help from professionals that know what they are talking about and professionals that come with a winning track record. Find a great service that picks games for a living and that has great handicappers either as independents or as part of their staff. There are game advising sites out there that can make this year a profit instead of a loss.

 

 

Jared Goff is the LA Rams QB of the future

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Les Snead was a crafty NFL general manager, when he made the calculated moves that he made – when he traded 6 draft picks in 2016 to obtain the No. 1 selection. Snead used the top spot to grab the California Jr. – Jared Goff who had finished up a fantastic season with 4714YDs, 43 TDs and a 65% completion ratio.
At 6-4 and 230 – Goff certainly passed the eye test to anyone who watches QBs. With smooth play, a good arm, and the exceptional ability to be able to throw his guys open – Jared Goff was everything that a team would want to see on paper – the Rams fans were stunned when he was grabbed over Carson Wentz – who the media was going gaga over. Goff was sitting as the prototype spread offense QB. Wentz played at a far from “big time” school at North Dakota St. – and was playing at what was considered, by some, to be in an inferior system there.
When his career started up – Goff struggled through the Rams training camp and even into their pre-season. Many were looking at him as a project – and he was going to take quite a bit of time to develop to become NFL ready. When Jared finally took the field for the Rams – he put up some awful numbers. With a 54% passing completion, a pitiful 5.3 YPA, and only moving the ball for a miniscule 156 YPG he wasn’t blowing away anyone on the field. In his 1st campaign, he had a truly disastrous rookie season.
Sometimes it becomes a very real issue with a case of over-hyping some players while others under-hype others. Jared Goff was looked at, as being the next big thing, and Wentz was not looked at with the same condemning eyes, yet after 22 regular season games, Goff has finally seemed to have come around. As Wentz was far ahead of Goff in the key QB categories until 2017,wher Goff played himself as a real pro QB. We often see the rookie explosion player that fans love – but then ends up being nothing more than a flash in the pan for the drafting team during their bummer 3-4 year career. It looks like it may have worked out thus far for LA.
When he was playing at Cal – Goff was constantly under incredible pressure, yet he maintained his poise in the pocket, which is one of the intangibles that QBs undoubtedly need for the position at the NFL level. Jared has also been lucky to have talented teammates who have the ability to make big plays after the catch. He has found himself in the great position to be able to stand and deliver, getting them the ball and letting them make a play. Their head coach has designed the game schemes around his 23 year old QB – and his strengths, which is what any player wants from their coaching staff. He has also molded the Rams powerful offense around what Goff does best. McVay’s excellent play-calling and the talented WRs have made great plays after the catch. With 3 players with 12 or more 20+ yard receiving plays – the Rams have the added benefit of having skilled players on the field, who can move down the field in a blink.
The Rams record surprised everyone going to 11-5 and they lit up the NFL for 29.9ppg, which was 1st in the NFL. When playing vs the division, they were tops with a strong record of 4-2, and helped get them to the playoffs for the first time since 2004. Jared has learned how to stand in the pocket and get his passes controlled far better. Making a slight shift in the pocket is the key for him to be the man for this team for the future. With a good 62% passing pct – he has been great with finding his guys when they are running the field. Putting up a solid 1.87 TD/game to just .47 picks – he has shown his QB ability to burn a defense by reading what they have vs him, and picking it apart.
And with 254 YDs/game – compared to the poor numbers that he had put up in 2016 – Goff has been much better with his pushing the ball ability. He has also been awesome on 3rd down – better than both Ben Roethlisberger and Tom Brady – with 11 TD passes, only 2 picks, and a 65% completion rate. Goff’s strengths have always been excellent play-action and his gentle touch with deep passes. He is a very good rhythm passer and doesn’t get easily deterred when things are collapsing. He didn’t need a complete overhaul, but he required a handful of adjustments just the same. The Rams have a revamped offense, which mixes play action and mimics the big named teams with their downfield looks.
Goff is led his Rams team to 11 wins, and his 254 passing yards per game and his 28 touchdowns ranked him 5th in the NFL. Those kind of numbers, lighting it up with his strong arm and field vision, prompted the Rams to easily hand the reigns to Goff this season. The Rams have a strong running game with Todd Gurley and his vicious running attack – along with a stout and terrifying defense. Which helps minimize what Jared has to be overly concerned about. Goff has incredible promise as far as the Rams organization goes. With a lightening quick release and always able to get the ball out of his hand really quickly – the Rams are here to stay.

How Yards Per Point can be utilized in College Football

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How Yards Per Point can be utilized to identify Wagering Opportunities

The Yards Per Point (YPP) metric is a valuable tool for sports handicappers and professional bettors. The offensive version of YPP (OYYP) reveals how efficient a team is scoring points. The lower the number the better as it takes fewer yards to score points. Conversely, the defensive measure of YPP (DYPP) reveals how stingy or soft any defensive unit is when facing any type of offense. The more points per point, the stronger the defense. Of course, then we can use the offensive and defensive differential to reveal team rankings and good solid drill-down to team valuation.

As the first chart displayed next reveals, Ohio university has the most efficient offense in the nation scoring one point for every 11.2 yards they have gained. Of course, they are not the best offensive team overall, and I would add a strength of schedule and conference weighting if two teams are playing from disparate conference types.

So if two teams are from the same conference, then there is a presumed equality of SOS implied. Let’s now take a quick look at Penn State versus Ohio State, which is essentially the BIG Ten matchup of the year. Penn State ranks 5th posting an 11.6 OYYP ratio while OSU ranks 12th in DYYP allowing one point for every 19.8 yards allowed. On the other side of the ball, we see that PSU ranks best in DYYP allowing one point for every 29.6 yards allowed and OSU ranks 18th scoring one point for every 12.2 yards gained.

Taking a look at the more important YPP differential we see PSU ranked best with a 18.0 YPP differential and OSU ranked 10th best with a 8.0 YPP differential. The difference in ranking is marginal, but the difference in YPP performance is monumental between these two BIG TEN foes.

Ohio State has been coming on since their horrid loss at home to Oklahoma earlier this season. Over their last three games, they have posted a 15.3 differential reflecting much improved performances on both sides of the ball. Penn State has performed at superior levels for the entire season and are actually getting better on defense. These observations are not being mentioned in the media and by itself offers you a betting advantage for this matchup.

YPP Differential
Rank Team 2017 Last 3 Last 1 Home Away 2016
1 Penn State 18 15.4 8.6 25.2 2.2 2.9
2 Alabama 12.8 5.5 2 12.8 12.6 7.7
3 Washington 11 8 -10.9 8.4 11.9 6.4
4 Notre Dame 10.5 12.8 13.9 9.4 12.1 0.1
5 Marshall 8.8 29.5 17.6 18.8 4.1 -2
6 VA Tech 8.6 6 18.1 5.7 10.5 2.3
7 Central FL 8.5 6.8 4.4 10.2 6.8 2.1
8 Georgia 8.2 4.8 -2 8.6 7.7 -1.8
9 Clemson 7.8 6 3.1 12.7 6.3 3.7
10 Ohio State 7.6 13.3 16.8 2.2 18.2 7.8
11 Iowa 7.4 6.6 -11.3 17.1 -1.3 5.7
12 Wisconsin 7.3 7.2 9 5.5 12.6 5.9
13 TX Christian 7 12.1 — 5 9.8 0.2
14 Stanford 7 8.5 33.9 9.2 5 4.2
15 Auburn 6.9 3.1 4.6 9.5 5.6 6
16 S Carolina 5.9 5.8 6.6 2.2 9 -1.4
17 Iowa State 5.7 11.5 12.9 3.7 8 -0.8
18 Arkansas St 5.1 16.6 77.8 24.9 0.7 3.8
19 S Florida 4.9 6.2 0 9.5 3.1 3.2
20 Miami (FL) 4.6 0.2 3.2 0.5 15.5 4.8
21 Minnesota 4 -0.2 2.5 4.3 3.4 3.6
22 Kansas St 3.4 0.8 3 5 -1.3 4.8
23 Purdue 3.3 -0.1 -24 3.6 2.9 -5.3
24 Fla Atlantic 3.1 5.4 1.9 2.6 3.7 -2.9
25 Wyoming 3 7 -3 6.7 -3.4 1.1

So, based on this brief look at this huge showdown, there is a distinct advantage to Penn State, yet the media and the public are focusing on the facts that OSU is playing at home and has played so much better since the loss to Oklahoma. In my humble opinion, neither of those reasons is valid to make OSU a 7 point home favorite against a team that destroyed a very good Michigan team that does have a strong defensive unit.

Written by John Ryan of VegasTopDogs.