Tag: Pro Football

Lions Amon-Ra St. Brown is ready to make the leap

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Wide receiver is known to be one of the most difficult positions to succeed at in the NFL. Oftentimes, great wide receivers from College Football just can’t seem to make it in the big league. Playing against defenders who are bigger, stronger and faster, along with defensive schemes. It’s a very difficult position to play and have success. You can usually tell the players that are going to succeed early and  they often make that leap in the 2nd year, as we saw with Justin Jefferson and Tee Higgins, most recently. Amon-Ra St. Brown is a talented wide receiver, who came out of USC after 3 middling seasons with just 16 TDs, but has adapted to the next level really well, I think his 2nd season is going to be a big jump. 

In his first season he racked up 90 catches for 912 yards which included 5 touchdowns and a very solid 10.1 yards-per-catch and this was after starting just 9 games. He also had 7 games of 70 or more YDs, where he showed he has the ability to be very explosive when he gets the ball in his hands. 

His ability to bounce around that field on short hitches or quick Slants is lethal, what he can do on the field truly can be a game-changer for the Detroit Lions. He can take a short 3 yd grab and quickly turn it into some big yards up field. St. Brown is loaded with talent, there is absolutely no question to that. The biggest question is, if he’s going to be able to showcase it to his full potential. 

Now of course, having Jared Goff as the quarterback, is truly the cog to how successful he might be. Although Goff isn’t a top tier QB, as he’s just above average, he can certainly complete short yard completions to him and let him attack the field. Goff is likely not the QB that any wide receiver is super excited to catch passes from, but he’s not completely inept, as he showed last year, throwing just 8 picks at a miniscule 1.6% rate, which improved from his prior season. 

And certainly keep in mind that the defenses in the NFC North have not been outstanding, so having to deal with less-than-stellar corners. Detroit and Goff should be able to take advantage of mismatches. 

Minnesota gave up 29 passing TDs in 2021, Chicago was torn up for 31, and the Packers gave up a load in the air as well. As good as DB Jaire Alexander is for Green Bay, he can be aggressive. He has very good timing, and jumps routes very frequently, but he can be beaten. 

From everything I have read and seen, the Lions team staff also has great hopes for him. The first step for success for any player, let alone a young wide receiver, is for coaches to have faith in them and they have shown they have that in him. Having a staff that believes in you and wants to give you a chance to succeed is very important. A player can only be as good as the opportunities that he is given. The Lions and Dan Campbell have something going on in Detroit.

Something good. 

I certainly feel that Campbell has the eye to take St. Brown to another level. He is a player’s guy, who has brought the Lions from scoring 25th in the NFL last season, quietly to 2nd early in this season.

If Amon-Ra St. Brown can stay healthy, he will be a great WR1 for the Lions. I fully expect the 6-0 receiver to elevate his game this season. I don’t think that 1100+ YDs and 10 TDs are out of sight. 

NFC East Draft Recap

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NFC East Draft Review

With the NFL draft done, all 32 teams now have their draft picks set heading into the summer and fall. Over the next few days, we’ll be taking a look at each team, division by division, in order to see who came out of the draft with players that fit both need and value.

 

Today, we’re starting things off with the NFC East.

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys were expected to target defense or offensive line with their first pick, but they couldn’t refuse when Oklahoma WR CeeDee Lamb fell to them at 17th overall. Dallas quickly snatched up Lamb, with a plan for him to join Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup as one of the team’s starting receivers.

 

Day two of the draft saw the Cowboys address their defense. With their second and third round picks respectively, they took Alabama CB Trevon Diggs and Oklahoma DT Neville Gallimore. Diggs is a candidate to start at corner to replace the departed-Byron Jones, while Lamb’s teammate Gallimore will provide depth on the interior of the defensive line.

 

On the final day, Dallas was able to marry need and value with their selections. They added another cornerback in Tulsa’s Reggie Robinson, and found a new potential starting center in Tyler Biadasz from Wisconsin. In one of the best value picks of the draft, the Cowboys ended up with Utah DE Bradlee Anae, a potential third-round pick, near the end of round five at No. 179 overall. They closed their draft out with a quarterback in the seventh round, going with Ben DiNucci from James Madison.

 

Overall, draft experts praised Dallas’ draft, with some even calling it one of the two or three best in the league. It’s hard to disagree, as the Cowboys came out of the draft with several players ready to make an impact right away.

New York Giants

At fourth overall, the Giants had their pick of offensive linemen in order to boost a group that has struggled for several years. They ultimately decided to take Georgia OT Andrew Thomas with their first round pick, a surprise to some. But just as many experts also felt New York got it right with the pick, as Thomas will be a day one starter at either left or right tackle.

 

New York has a perfect combination of need and value met in the second round when they selected Alabama S Xavier McKinney. McKinney was expected to be a first round pick, and should be able to start at either safety spot next to Jabrill Peppers. The Giants then used their round three pick at 99 overall to select the big OT Matt Peart from UConn.

 

Armed with seven picks on day three, including four seventh round picks, the Giants targeted defense. Some notable selections included UCLA CB Darnay Holmes, Penn State LB Cam Brown and Minnesota LB Carter Coughlin. Their only offensive pick on Saturday was Oregon OG Shane Lemieux, who they plan to cross-train at center.

 

As a whole, the Giants made sure that offensive line and athletes on defense, their two biggest needs heading in, were met. Although they didn’t draft a center, true pass-rusher, or even a wide receiver, it was considered a successful draft for New York.

Philadelphia Eagles

With a clear need at wideout heading into the draft, the Eagles did in fact go wide receiver in round one. Although it wasn’t the receiver many people thought it would be, as the team passed on LSU’s Justin Jefferson in favor of TCU WR Jalen Reagor. Even though it was a little bit of a surprise pick, Reagor should provide explosiveness to their offense.

 

Philadelphia continued the surprises on day two, taking Oklahoma QB Jalen Hurts in the second round. The Heisman Trophy finalist becomes the backup to Carson Wentz and a viable option in case Wentz gets hurt. It also wouldn’t be a surprise if Hurts was used on certain packages and option plays for the time being. They finished the day with Davion Taylor, the speedy linebacker from Colorado.

 

The draft experts loved Philadelphia’s day three picks, with GM Howie Roseman finding some great value late. Clemson S K’Von Wallace was picked in the fourth round after some believed he could go as high as the second round. They also picked, among others, Auburn OG Jack Driscoll and Boise State WR John Hightower, both of whom were good value picks. In addition to four more day three picks, the Eagles also traded for 49ers WR Marquise Goodwin.

 

Even though some of their earlier picks were considered a little puzzling, the Eagles definitely targeted wide receiver and filled that need. They also improved their depth along the offensive line and at pass-rusher. It’s a solid draft that could be considered brilliant if Hurts ends up becoming a huge piece for them.

Washington Redskins

After the Bengals got the draft started with QB Joe Burrow, the Redskins had the next no-brainer pick and took Ohio State EDGE Chase Young. Young was the draft’s best defensive prospect, and should be a staple on Washington’s defensive line for years to come.

 

With no second round pick, Washington’s only day two selection was a running back near the beginning of the third round, Memphis’ Antonio Gibson. Gibson is a do-it-all running back who new head coach Ron Rivera can deploy in a multitude of ways.

 

Day three was a busy day for the Redskins. The action started with a trade of disgruntled OT Trent Williams to the 49ers in exchange for a fifth round pick this year and a third rounder for next year. With Williams gone, Washington selected his potential replacement in the fourth round, LSU OT Saahdiq Charles. Liberty WR Antonio Gandy-Golden was a good value pick in the fifth round, as was San Diego State C Keith Ismael, who was taken with the pick acquired from San Francisco. The team had three more picks to wrap up the day, including N.C. State EDGE James Smith-Williams, to close out their draft.

 

Desperate for impact players, the Redskins certainly got that in Young, with Gibson and Charles also expected to see the field often. They are hoping that their good draft, paired with the new coach and the development of QB Dwayne Haskins, can propel them out of the division cellar.

 

When you are ready to bet on the teams from the NFC East – head to PayPerHead247; our favorite pay per head bookie site.

Here’s what you should know about the 2020 NFL Draft

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There is uncertainty regarding the return of many leagues right now, due to the Covid-19 crisis, as we all know, but the NFL, given its scheduled to return until August, for the pre-season, has tried to keep everything in place and hope that things will go back to normal before then. All of us sports fans are hoping the same, and by August, we expect to be back on track and getting ready to enjoy a new season.

However, the first big event of the new NFL season will take place much sooner, in late April, if everything goes as planned; we’re talking about the 2020 NFL Draft, which is set to take place from April 23rd to 25th in Paradise, Nevada. As we all well know, the NFL Draft is the event where all the different teams in the league get to choose their newest and youngest stars, fresh out of college; it is a very important event, as it can mark the present and future for many teams, depending on how many good or bad decisions they make during those three days.

This will be the 85th edition of the NFL Draft, with a total of 255 selections in 7 rounds, and the Cincinnati Bengals will be the ones to choose first.

Sports wagering applied to the NFL Draft

For a long time, the sports betting industry has made it a tradition to offer lines and propositions for the NFL Draft, and it has become a very expected event by gamblers from all over. In fact, this injects some extra adrenaline from way before, as gamblers follow the NCAA Football season with a close eye, so that they’re able to make better betting choices for each year’s draft.

Joining a good Price per Head service provider will assure you and your bookie operation that you will be able to deal these lines and much more for your players, which we’re sure will be eager to make their choices, even more, this year, with the lack of sports events these days.

Some of the options that are usually available to bet on for the Draft, include, for example, total number of offensive players vs defensive players selected in the first round, total of players selected from different NCAA conferences, like ACC, Big Ten, Pac 12 and so on, or total players selected from specific teams, some of the favorites, of course, like Alabama, LSU, Ohio State, etc.  

 

Other NFL bets available right now

It’s important that, as a bookie, you make sure to be offering your players everything they’re looking for right now, and even more during this health crisis. As we said, the NFL is not expected to deal with many abrupt changes, and so, sportsbooks from all over the world are offering future bets like odds to win the Super Bowl, odds to win conferences and divisions, odds to win NFL MVP award, total season wins by team and much more.

Join the Price per Head industry right now and learn from the best, Payperhead247.com to make the most out of the new NFL season, since now! Give us a call today and let’s get started!

 More pay per head tips:

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  5. How to Expand Your Bookmaking Offering

The Raiders need big changes to get in the mix

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The Oakland Raiders were just 7-9 this last season with a 24th ranked offense and a bottom feeding 24th ranking in defense. They have their share of issues going on in their team dynamics. They were 4-12 in 2018 – and 6-10 back in 2017. Now, the AFC West has the champions of the NFL in it, with the KC Chiefs – it is obvious, they need to try something new to challenge and move into at least a solid 2nd slot in the division.

Derek Carr at QB has been up and down – he is a solid pocket passer, without a ton of mobility. He isn’t a “running QB” – but he is a QB who can move around – and pick up needed yards with his feet, if he has to. Carr is pretty solidified in his pocket, nothing more, nothing less. Oakland bringing in 26 year old Marcus Mariota, I think was a slick move – it gives him someone to compete with to get his game back up to what many saw as his potential career going to – back in 2015 and 2016.

I think if their management actually gave him someone to throw the ball to – I think a lot of people’s tunes might change about him. He isn’t the worst passer with his steady completion ability – and he is pretty good moving around back there, as his ability to avoid sacks verifies. His TD% ratio has not been great, and he has struggled to push the ball downfield for several seasons. But, it seems he has become lazy and almost complacent as their QB. So although he has had problems – I think he is just one of the issues that needs tightening up on, but the problems go elsewhere as well.

They are also a very poorly disciplined team almost every year – and that falls directly on Head Coach, Jon Gruden. I thought signing him back in 2018 was a good move, but after 2 years, he is 11-21 since then, which is starting to make me feel maybe he is a bit overrated. He came in with a career 6 above .500 seasons out of 11 seasons coaching – which is solid – but they threw piles of cash at him to come back and be the savior for the organization, I would say 11 wins later, the team hasn’t looked so “saved.” They have looked better than from 2018, but this is the year for him to prove something.

Jon Gruden also doesn’t have the team just as he wants it, yet now in Vegas. Their biggest problem on offense has been their receiving corps – they need better WRs. Tyrell Williams and Hunter Renfrow were middling to say it best – with just 1256 YDs and 10 TDs between them, it wasn’t spectacular to watch. Williams can be a great WR2 who should be able to get 800+ yards and 8 TDs on his own – I just think they need that WR1 that is a great pass catcher to bring the best out in him. Oakland has had more than their share of problems stopping the opposition from putting up points, with 26.2 oppg. But, their offense is anemic. They scored 25 or more points in just 3 games in 2019 – a season average of 19.6 /game. They need to concentrate on offense for this team.

With the RB they have in Josh Jacobs – they should be calling 55% percent run to throw – I know Carr wants to chuck the ball, but Jacobs can move the chains on the ground – he is the future for this team. In 2019, the Raiders were 54% throwing the ball to running, which should be flipped. Jacobs should be the offensive leader – they have a 220lb back who can plow through or juke almost everything that comes at him. Jacobs gave them 4.8 YPC, 1150 YDs, and 7 TDs on a team that gave him more than 20 carries in less than half of his games. Imagine if he got 20 or more carries /game in 75% of the games? I think he could be a 12 TD and 1600 YD guy.

Oakland soon to be Las Vegas Raiders has more than their amount of problems to try and clean up for the next season. Gruden needs to keep building, this is a vital year 3. Carr has to push the ball downfield with confidence – and Jacobs must get more carries. I think if Jacobs starts to be the offensive cog and they can get WRs for Carr to move the ball to, this team can potentially be a 10 win team quickly, and at least be in the playoff conversation in their conference.

Can Mitch Trubisky get to the next level

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I never was someone who head first bought into Mitch Trubisky coming out of North Carolina. With an 8-5 season on his shoulder and 13 starts in 2016 – it wasn’t enough for me to think he was going to be a big-time star in the NFL. Trubisky was very accurate in college, with 67% for his career – but had a good college receiving core with Ryan Switzer and Bug Howard, and I feel his one good year in UNC brought him some overvalued praise. But I would think many of us thought Jared Goff was a bust, after his 2016 season with 54% passing and his poor decision making – and we were proven wrong, with his 2 consecutive seasons of 28+ TDs and 62% passing rate – so who knows?
I think there has been some improvement across the board, as he had gone from 59% to 66% completion rate from 2017-2018 and 2.1% to 5.5% TD rate in the same period – all the while learning the QB position in the NFL under different regimes. Not too bad. And Trubisky only had one year under Nagy and before that – John Fox didn’t do anything to help him, and as he gets more comfortable in the Bears offense, I think he should improve his game. This is his 3rd season – in his 1st season, he was stuck with Fox – who was tanking the team, and he only played 12 games. In 2018 he played with a new head coach, with a new scheme, and he helped bring them to the postseason, and being honest – Trubisky was a very big part in last years success. Mitch isn’t the greatest passer in the league and probably never will be, but he has the ability to win the game for his team or lose it for them.
I don’t see Bears Mitch ever being a 40 passes / game, spread offense type QB, and he isn’t necessarily one the QB types that people crave to watch play the game.  In his first season in the Nagy offense – he started out shaky in the first 3 games – but then looked good heading through the last 3 games of the season with 3TD and 0 picks over the last few games. He has been more than subpar this season with 0 TDs thrown yet – so the process needs to stay the course.
A huge problem with this generation of fans – is they expect these young guys to come out of school and dominate the league, and win a SuperBowl right away. Only a small amount of guys have been able to do that – most probably should ride the pine before taking over – and earn the chance to be the guy. He has shown a few glimpses of being the Bears long time QB –  but his WR group have not been great either. Mitch needs to stop getting so anxious, and trust his guys – one of his biggest issues has been his consistency, with several games of less than 60% passing and 4 games with 2+ picks and then 3 games with 3+ TD passes and 3 games with 70%or better passing along with carrying a 10+ YPA in those games in 2018 – and it is obvious he is still working out some off season rust.
I wasn’t a fan of the pick in 2017 – and I still don’t think they should have traded what they did for him – and he has been awful so far with 174 YPG and a 58% completion pct. I think this season cam still end up as a leap for him and Nagy – Mitch Trubisky should get better – and I do look for him to improve. He still is making some poor decisions, and I think this high expectationed season could make or break him. But, Trubisky is nowhere near his ceiling yet. The Bears have looked less than great so far at 1-1 and are at the bottom of the NFL in passing yards this season – and Mitch has been repugnant at the helm. Trubisky seems to be getting more comfortable in the pocket – but the 25 year old still needs to get better with going through progressions, I don’t think I see him ever cracking the top 5 – but I think he could be in the top 12-15 conversation.
So here we go.

The secret weapon for the Detroit Lions

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As a struggling team like Detroit is still trying to get their footing as to who or what their team is. They need to find that spark that can ignite some semblance of a fire to their team. A team that has the right WR can make up for many potential flaws the team may have on other sides – and it can give the team a star on their roster. Truthfully, getting the right WR can take a team from great to lethal. The NFL has become so focused on the aerial game, so the amount of importance at the WR position is vital.
And, as always, many talented players – have gone overlooked and unappreciated by fans and even by the mainstream NFL “experts.”
The first 3 seasons of Marvin Jones’s career had been ok, but they didn’t blow anyone away – mostly due to some “other guy” named
A.J. Green – but when he was finally able to get his opportunity with Detroit – he has exploded with the WR talent that makes the Lions very excited and thrilled to have him catching balls for them.
Detroit has had a slight problem with cultivating WR talent – and haven’t really had a player perform at a great level for them since Calvin Johnson. But it is looking like that disappointing trend is on the quick path to change. Jones has been nothing but excellent for the Lions, with awesome numbers of 16.9 and 18.0 YPC since 2016 – it is hard to argue the WR ability to move the ball downfield. Since Marvin joined the Lions in 2016 – he and Golden Tate had been one of the top WR duos, with 369 receptions and over 5000 receiving yards between them from 2016-2018. A dangerous combination, that had worked for the Lions for the last 2 seasons. But now Tate has been dealt, which leaves a huge opportunity available. Jones matches up well against top DBs and gets open, with “target magnet” Tate gone – leaves more balls for Jones.
Watching Marvin Jones work against Pittsburgh or Minnesota in 2017, was incredible – when he helped to torch their top ranked secondaries for 128 and 109 YDs in those games. And racking up 6 of his 9 TDs in 2017, vs the NFC North division, with top ranking secondary players like Xavier Rhodes and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix – was certainly not too shabby.
Players like Jarvis Landry, and Alshon Jeffery have gotten rave reviews, and all the adoration that comes with being a great WR, even TEs get love, but Jones – there just hasn’t been very much about him and his pass catching skills. Marvin Jones has hung numbers up better numbers to Jarvis in the TD:target ratio, and similar numbers to Jeffery in the receptions category. In 31 previous games with Detroit – he has compiled a seasonal average of 105 targets, 58 receptions, 1066 receiving yards and 6.5 receiving touchdowns. In 43 games with the Bengals, from 2012-2015, his numbers were solid – but with only 1 season getting 100 or more targets. If he was able to gobble up another 3-4 targets/game, I firmly believe Jones would be a steady 1200 YD, 10-11 TD WR, year in and year out. Which would put him around the top 5 in the NFL, along with the other top players, so it is shown, again, his WR level is more than just decent – it is excellent. And now Jones has a legit chance to eat up more targets with Tate gone.
Marvin has not had the great pleasure of playing with a monstrous QB, like Brees or Brady either. Playing with Andy Dalton was ok – but he isn’t one of the best QBs in the NFL either. A QB with the numbers that Dalton has put up, and his shakiness when the chips are down, doesn’t exactly make anyone quake in their cleats in fear. Finally, getting to play with 4000 yard passer, Matthew Stafford is a great and fantastic opportunity for the 7 year player, and he has exploited it.
Marvin is an excellent offensive threat that when he lines up, going up against your team – he is always potentially a moment away from busting off a huge game changing play. With 20 catches of 20+ yards in 2017 and another 16 big plays in 2016 – he has repeatedly shown the breakaway ability on the field as well.  This year so far, Jones has put up 387 yards, for a 15 YPC avg, and added a team leading 5 receiving TDs to the team. If they would take advantage more of his speed and height a bit more, Stafford and Jones could be a lethal combination.
It is time for some respect for Marvin Jones and to be recognized for what he is – A weapon.

How Khalil Mack has changed the Bears

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The Chicago Bears picked up the 27 year old Khalil Mack – to bring to their roster. When they grabbed him – the Bears immediately thought Mack would be the answer to their unsuccessful and poor season woes. Mack went to a team with a proud history, and Mack has an amazing track record, that has immediately brought a great defensive presence to the Chicago organization. With 231 tackles and 40.5 sacks with the Raiders, and an incredible head for the game, over the previous 4 seasons – it was something the Bears certainly wanted to have on their struggling team.
The Bears had played many of the previous seasons without great offensive threats, with a low ended offensive team – but then they brought in Mack to immediately upgrade their already high ranked defensive squad to improve an already solid defense. Khalil has been playing great for the Raiders – and was contributing immensely for them, before being traded to Chicago.
The Chicago Bears have lacked a truly powerful presence on the defensive side of the ball for numerous seasons. Getting Khalil Mack was almost like a dream come true. Khalil brings a very real, and very serious threat to their opponents.
The Bears have only had 2 seasons of 10+ wins since 2007 – and that isn’t a good thing for any team to have hanging over their heads.
With that, the Bears haven’t been able to finish games with overwhelming defense and a bad offense. Since 2007 they have only had 4 seasons ranking in the top 10 for opponents ppg defense. And the Bears haven’t had a truly dominant defensive player since the likes of Richard Dent, Steve McMichael or a LB like Brian Urlacher. For a proud and gritty team like Chicago that has always had an enterprise for defense and brought fear to opponents, that is unacceptable.
They desperately needed a serious option for the team to look to – to make the big play, the big stop when needed – Chicago had just 1 season of 42 or more sacks since 2013 – adding Mack will immediately help them improve that and be able to terrify opponents for years to come. The team is already expected for 50+ sacks for this season. Khalil has gotten the Bears team ready to take the next steps, with great energy and an amazing motor. They have not always made the best defensive adjustments for the team recently,  but Mack brings excellent defensive leadership and a great leader to the team. Chicago can now change things up by picking up their pace or even by throwing in an unexpected blitzes through the game.
There’s something very hopeful about a team that makes the big moves, has a healthy roster, and has a new young coach in Matt Nagy who knows the game more for today’s style, and is much more open to ideas, that has to get teams more concerned. When the Chicago Bears are invading opponents on the field teams pay attention. Khalil Mack is going to instantly change the culture of Chicago Bears – and the Bears defensive system is built for his aggressive style.
There is really is no other way to win the big time game unless a team goes for the jugular; with Khalil Mack and a new offense with some spark, they will now be able to. This team is one that was slightly better than its 5-11 record in 2017, and given the supporting cast around their young QB, Mitch Trubisky – adding Khalil Mack to their already good D is going to get them over the hump, and fervently make the move to get to the postseason for the first time since 2010.
Mack is one of the best defensive players in the game – and very dangerous to offenses and any other player he goes up against. Teams will not be able to handle his speed and his power and will not be able to match up vs his skills. The 6-3 DE is a silky smooth player who brings great talent and a proud game back to the Chicago Bears. With a defensive TD, 4 forced fumbles, and 5 sacks over 5 games this year, Mack has delivered a truckload of abuse and has been monstrosity to a middling team that has needed a defensive leader for some time. The other teams in the division are in for a tough time dealing with Da Bears and their dominant pass rusher for years to come.
Mack has found a fantastic landing spot for himself, going to Chicago – I fully expect Mack to bring a great future to the Chicago Bears – in a very short time.  This is a positive move for Chicago – as they have put up just an average of 7-9 record since 2011, and haven’t won a division title since 2010. Simply put, Khalil Mack has and will, deliver when the pressure gets at its greatest for this team.

Betting the NFL Preseason in 2016

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PreSeason 2016

Betting the NFL Preseason in 2016

You will hear people say “Don’t bet on NFL Preseason Football”. Big Mistake! It’s actually easier than capping the regular season. In most cases you can read ahead of time the exact game plan for each team. I feel the NFL preseason is a great opportunity to start and build a nice bankroll for the upcoming regular season.

Many handicappers have the opinion that the preseason games should be left alone and not bet on. I feel just the opposite. If you do your homework, the preseason offers the betting public a tremendous chance to make a lot of money. Here are some things to consider when betting NFL Preseason football in 2016.

1) Depth

 

This one is obvious. Jo public gets so worked up about the starters and skill position players on certain teams during the regular season. But they’re the same in the preseason. Teams that can go two-and three-deep (sometimes four-deep) at the skill positions have a decided advantage over a club that has a few stars that will be sitting after the first or second series. A perfect example of a team like that this season, is no other than the San Diego Chargers. They have four solid quarterbacks that should help to win games in August. Or, keep games close. Philip Rivers, Kellen Clemens, Zack Mettenberger all have NFL game experience. They signed QB Mike Bercovici out of Arizona State. He’s not big but has a strong arm while putting up some lofty numbers in College. All four QB’s will have lots of success going up against second, third, and sometimes fourth-string defenses. The Chargers have a distinct advantage over a club like the Cincinnati Bengals, who have a solid #1 in Andy Daulton, an up-and-down #2 in A.J. McCaron, but unproven #3 & #4 in Keith Wenning and Joe Licata respectively.

The Bengals will also be learning a new offense under first-year coordinator Ken Zampese. He’s been with the organization as QB coach since 2003 so that helps, but he’ll be calling plays for the first time this August. There will be an adjustment period early on. The Chargers welcome back Ken Whisenhunt as offensive coordinator where the team put up big numbers back in 2013. The Chargers were ranked 5th in total offense compared to 31st the year before. San Diego loves the offense under Whisenhunt and all the pieces are in place. The Chargers should have a very successful preseason and could be a sleeper team in the AFC West. Look for RB Melvin Gordon to have a much better sophomore season than his 2015 rookie campaign.

Quarterbacks and continuity are key. NFL Preseason wagers, just like those during the Regular Season, often come down to the last eight minutes of a game. So find teams that have solid depth at QB and/or has some experience or success in the league. They’ll have a tremendous advantage in the closing moments of a game against a third and/or fourth-string defense.

 

2) Experience

 

I don’t necessarily mean which team has the most grizzled veterans on it. In fact, experience can be a detriment. Most Vets hate preseason games. And teams that have established players in certain positions or roles will often see those guys mail it in during the preseason because they know the games are “meaningless” and already have their “jobs” locked up.

However, experience is a key factor when it comes to coaching systems. Organizations that haven’t experienced much turnaround have a significant advantage over those that are easing in a new brain trust. For example, New England has been running Bill Bellichek’s/Josh McDaniels system since 2012, as too have the Pittsburgh Steelers with Todd Haley. The Patriots and Steelers are going to be much sharper than a team that is changing offenses. Take the Kansas City Chiefs for example. They are breaking in two rookie offensive coordinators in Brad Childress and Matt Nagy. Two voices are not better than one when trying to learn a new offense. Andy Reid is still going to call the plays. There is going to be a major adjustment period for the Chiefs on offense this August. Keying on clubs that have familiarity & continuity, and finding clubs that are much less comfortable with their new systems is a big key when wagering on preseason games.

 

3) First-Year Head Coaches with new team (Full Season)

 

We have seven for the 2016-17 season once again after seven made their debuts two seasons ago. First year head coaches can be tricky but generally perform very well in their first August home game.They went 6-1 ATS in their first home game last preseason! A lot of expectations are put on these guys coming in. They want to show the Owner, General Manager, and fans that he is the right man for the job. Setting the tone early means playing to win in the preseason. Here are the Lucky 7 this year.

Hue Jackson (BROWNS)

Adam Gase (DOLPHINS)

Ben McAdoo (GIANTS)

Doug Pederson (EAGLES)

Chip Kelly (49ers)

Dirk Koetter (BUCCANEERS)

Mike Mularkey (TITANS)

4) Competition/Philosophy

 

If you know how head coaches were raised and what their philosophies are than you will have a big advantage this August. I know all the personalities/traits of every single HC in the NFL which helps me beat the books in August. I will give you one HC that preaches competition from his players down to the ball boy. That would be Pete Carroll of the Seattle Seahawks. His philosophy at USC was to create competition along with a winning attitude. That has continued since moving to the NFL. Pete Carroll is 27-13 ATS in his career when playing in August. Coming off his Super Bowl loss against New England, the Seahawks went 2-2 ATS last preseason. I would expect a much better effort this year. On the flip side is Jason Garrett of the Dallas Cowboys. He uses the preseason basically to scout his younger guys and it shows. His 6-14 ATS record in the NFL preseason is the worst active record in August with at least 20 games played.

 

5) Motivation

If you watched the NFL for any number of years you should know that not every Head Coach cares about winning in the NFL Preseason. Different HC’s have different agendas when playing August Football and they all pretty much stick to their beliefs. I gave you two very good examples above that should hold true once again this upcoming season.

Each coach handles the preseason differently. Some put a premium on the second game. For some it’s the third or even the fourth. Some coaches just mess around and tinker with their lineups during the preseason and use it to evaluate their younger guys. But here’s the key – and this is a big difference between the regular season and preseason football – most coaches are forthright about what the game plan will be. All you have to do is a little research from the local beat writers.

 

6) Scheduling

 

The preseason schedule generally isn’t too taxing on the teams and players. But there are quirks. The two teams that play the Hall of Fame Game are a good bet to fade in their next game. If some key players are a bit banged up then you can expect those guys to be watching in street clothes. Keep a close watch on how the players from the Steelers and Colts come out of the Hall of Fame game. Also, NFL teams who play on the West Coast (with little to no humidity), and than travel to play a high humidity East Coast game. It would be wise to fade those West Coast teams especially if installed as a favorite.

7) Fading Super Bowl participants as significant Chalk

Now, it’s hard to just blindly play against Super Bowl teams from the previous season (Carolina/Denver) as a favorite of 7 or more points in every preseason game. You have to pick your spots. Over the past five seasons alone, these teams are just 3-9-2 ATS, so you would have made a huge profit. The oddsmakers have caught on in recent years and you will notice very few preseason games with any point spread of 7 or more especially early on.

Jeff’s NFL Preseason system to consider

If you are looking for a very solid system/angle in the NFL preseason, here is one to consider this year. Teams that begin 0-2 straight up over the last ten years are 54-36 ATS in their very next game. Head Coaches/owners tend to get very nervous when they get off to a bad start, even in the preseason, and they have their team ready for that third game. Most teams will take that 0-2 team lightly, thus making those winless teams a smart play by the “Wise Guys”. If two 0-2 teams are facing each other, its a no play and that’s reflected in the record above.

 

Look for more Football articles in the coming weeks. Jeff was ranked No.2 in the 2014-15 NFL regular season at The Sports Monitor of OK, cashing just under 70%. Jeff has shown a profit in six of the past seven years in football, fully documented. Early Bird Football packages are now on sale.

by Jeff Hochman for VegasTopDogs.com

Philadelphia Eagles Likely to Crash and Burn

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EaglesDraft

The Philadelphia Eagles have been relatively quiet since firing Chip Kelly before the end of his third season with them. The turbulence and controversy hasn’t stopped, though.

The Eagles just moved up to No. 2 in the draft by giving up their No. 1, No. 3 and No. 4 draft choices this season plus their No. 1 and No. 2 draft picks next year to the Browns to move up six spots in the draft plus get Cleveland’s fourth-round pick in 2017. In other words, the Eagles surrendered an extra first-round pick, second-round pick and third-round pick to draft either Jared Goff or Carson Wentz.

The Rams are likely to grab Goff leaving the Eagles to take Wentz. It’s a foolish gamble for the Eagles since earlier this year they signed San Bradford to a two-year $35 million deal that includes $22 in guaranteed money and also inked Chiefs backup quarterback Chase Daniel to a three-year, $21 million deal with $12 million guaranteed. So Eagles owner Jeffrey Lurie already has tied up $34 million in guaranteed money to Bradford and Daniel.

Without high draft picks and free agent money the Eagles are at a real disadvantage. There’s no guarantee Goff or Wentz turns out – and the Rams get first crack at the one they believe is best.

Neither Goff nor Wentz are rated as a sure-fire franchise quarterbacks. I rate them lower than Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota, last year’s top two quarterback picks who went 1-2 in the draft. I didn’t like the Rams surrendering a king’s ransom to move into the No. 1 draft spot. I like the Eagles’ move even less.

The Eagles could have stayed at No. 8 and likely had a choice of a stud lineman – either on offense or defense – or maybe the top ranked wider receiver or running back. Then in the second round they could have addressed their quarterback future by taking either Connor Cook or Christian Hackenberg since they are so unsure of Bradford and Daniel despite just shelling out big bucks for them.

That way the Eagles would have upgraded their roster while not gambling their future away.

The NFC East turned very weak in 2015. The Redskins are the defending division champs. Dallas is a factor as long as Tony Romo is healthy. The Giants made huge free agent news upgrading their defense with multiple signings. The Eagles certainly appear now to be the weakest team in the division since they are the least likely to improve themselves in the draft.

Written by Stephen Nover of VegasTopDogs.com

On Any Given Sunday

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NFL Parity

For years, pro football has been the sports leader when it comes to parity. Pete Rozelle was credited with, “On any given Sunday any team can beat another.” Despite all the undefeated NFL teams this late in the 2015 campaign, that adage is still true. The Tennessee Titans opened the season at Tampa Bay as a dog, won 42-14, then kept on losing into November.

The ever-rebuilding Jacksonville Jaguars opened the season losing 5 of 6, but that lone victory was 23-20 over Miami as a +6 dog. With the undefeated starts of several teams it’s easy to overlook the fact that there are no winless ones. The last few years it seemed as though parity had disappeared from the NFL. The Pats, Broncos, Packers, Bengals and Panthers have dazzled in the win column, but they have been far from dominating every week.

The Patriots had to rally in the fourth quarter at home to top the Jets, trailing 20-16. The grind-it-out Bengals have wins by 5, 4 and 3 points. The Broncos have won games by 6, 7, 3, 6 and 3 points and have a QB that has thrown more picks than TDs!

The big edge that the top teams have is above average quarterback play. The disparity between the good QBs and the bad ones has really become noticeable in 2015, especially with stars like Ben Roethlisberger and Tony Romo missing time. Backups are forced to become starters and discarded QBs are forced out of retirement for a while with the dearth of depth and talent behind center. Teams like the Bills, Browns and Texans haven’t known who their starting quarterbacks are from week to week.

What New England did in 2007 was unique, an 18-0 run, but let’s not forget that they were fortunate to run the 16-0 regular season table. They had wins over the Colts, Eagles, Ravens and Giants by 4, 3, 3 and 3 points. Counting the playoffs, the Patriots went 2-9 against the spread their final 11 games. They were double digit favorites in their final ten and went 2-8 ATS.

Last season the top two seeds met in the Super Bowl, New England and Seattle, but that’s not the norm, either. Upsets are common in the postseason, as are teams with No. 2, 3 and 4 seeds reaching the Super Bowl.

There’s an old wagering adage about going against pro football teams who roll by 20 points in back-to-back games. That’s not easy to do. If a pro team beats another by 20-plus points in consecutive weeks, it can be a good time to look at the other side, as the club off two blowout wins can be overvalued. In order to win by that kind of margin in consecutive games, a team has to play close to two perfect games back-to-back. In this day of parity, that takes a rare combination of talent, execution, health and luck.

This season the Patriots trashed the Jaguars (51-17) and the Cowboys (30-6) in back-to-back games, but failed to cover the next week in a 34-27 win at Indy as -8 chalk. They failed to cover the first half line, as well, trailing 20-17.

Remember how bad the Chiefs started in 2011? Kansas City opened the season with back-to-back colossal stinkers, losing 41-7 and 48-3. They were a +16 dog the next game, but a very different team showed up in a 20-17 loss at San Diego, an easy cover. Atlanta has been a major turn-around team in 2015, starting 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS. However, when oddsmakers adjusted, the Falcons came back to earth a bit, failing to cover three straight weeks in a win over Washington (25-19), a loss to the Saints (31-21) as a favorite, and a 10-7 win over Tennessee as -6 chalk.

So keep a close eye on dominant teams in a small two-game stretch. In 2010 the Jaguars got routed by the Chargers (38-13) and Eagles (28-3), then as a +7 dog beat the Colts, 31-28. In 2009 after losing road games by 23 and 37 points, the Raiders stumbled home and not only covered, but beat the Eagles as 14-point dogs, 13-9. That same season the Browns lost back-to-back games by 20+ in Weeks 2 and 3, then got the cover against the Bengals as a +6 home dog. After losing by 35 and 28, the Rams got the cover in a 23-20 loss at Jacksonville as a +9 dog. It is hard to wipe out a pro team by 3 TDs three games in a row.

It might not seem like it at times, but this is parity at work, with salary caps and free agency making it difficult for teams to simply buy players to shore up weak areas, as is the case in baseball. In football, if you pay a lot to get or retain a key player, you may lose a star in another area. Overall, you rarely see pro teams keep up 20-point or more dominance for more than two games.

Written by Jim Feist for VegasTopDogs.com