Tag: SF 49ers

CMC to the SF 49ers changes the NFC

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The San Francisco 49ers shook up the NFC with a big time trade. The Niners picked up a career 7,272 total yards RB, Christian McCaffrey and the Panthers got 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rd picks in the 2023 draft, and a 5th in 2024. Making a move like this in the NFC immediately changes the horizon.  The Eagles were looking like, and still are, based off of what they’ve been putting on the field, I would think it’s fair to say that they are still the favorite in the NFC. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t some teams that can easily slip in there. The Niners have been looked at as a defensive lead team this season giving up just 14.8 points per game and with their defense they have been sitting at just a 3-3 record as of this article. The offense, although with its share of very talented players, just has not been what I think that San Francisco fans were hoping for. And that is what they needed to improve on, and with this trade that is what they went and did. 

There are some critics of the trade thinking that the Niners gave up far too much for a running back who has had his share of injury problems. But to me this looks more like a win-win trade in my opinion. Carolina is a roaring tire fire and needs some draft capital to really start rebuilding that team. San Francisco has a team currently that can compete and make some noise in the NFC and they have depth, so right now, I don’t think that drafting is their number one priority – they have a team that just got better and will be the VegasTopDogs favorite in the NFC. 

McCaffrey finds himself now in a much different position than he has ever been in before in his career. Now granted, he has missed a whopping 23 games since 2020 – but when you’re a player who literally carries the team on your back and he touches the ball on what seems to be 80% of snaps there’s a higher chance of being hurt. Now McCaffrey is on a team where there’s a lot of talent around them he’s not going to have to carry as much of the load as he was. In Carolina, there really wasn’t a whole lot of support, the QB situation was not good, there was not a good TE situation, their offensive line was terrible, he’s going to fit in and be just fine in San Francisco. He’s not the only weapon the Niners have which will be a good thing for the 26 yr old RB.

He is a generational RB, who put up 1000+ yards rushing in 2018 and 2019 along with 1,872 receiving yards in that time frame as well, to go along with his 32 total touchdowns. He has put out jaw dropping performances with 7 games of 100 yards or more rushing, along with 35 or more receiving. He has also had 17 games of 70 or more receiving, and some think this guy isn’t worth these picks?
That’s crazy talk to me. 
Who are the Niners going to get better than him in that draft? 
I’ll tell you. 
Nobody.

This is a player that was looked at as the ultimate weapon for several years, his ability to hit the hole and take off with explosive speed was outstanding. Adding on top of that his exceptional hands and his ability to run routes. People need to remember that he caught 100 or more receptions twice and this is a RB, this isn’t a WR1. He won’t be used like that in San Fran, which should help him last longer and quite honestly, he could be even more effective.  He won’t be forced to be the focal point of the offense now with the likes of Deebo, along with an improving Brandon Aiyuk. And of course, we can’t forget about their Pro Bowl tight end Greg Kittle and the fact that San Francisco finds ways to get their running backs in the best positions they can be. Undrafted RB, Jeff Wilson ran for 4.8+ YPC in 2 of the last 3 seasons, journeyman Matt Breida ran for 5.0 YPC avg in his 3 years in San Fran – I certainly think Christian McCaffrey will be more than fine in their running scheme. 

The NFC Conference looks a lot different now with their SuperBowl Odds. San Francisco was already looked at as a likely playoff team with a stud defense, and now just adding more firepower to their offense, they certainly have the appearance of a team that legitimately can go to the Bowl this year. This trade means the Niners are all in for a ring this season. I doubt the 49ers will end up regretting this. If you are a team that feels you have what it takes to be a champion you have to take some risks, like the great hockey legend Wayne Gretzky once said – “you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.”

NFL Playoffs: Conference Champions at Stake!

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This is it, the final weekend of games before the Super Bowl. The last month we’ve been hearing about playoff seedings, bye weeks and home field advantage. Are all those things really important? Historically it has been during the second round of the playoffs. Teams with the bye have home field advantage and two weeks to prepare, both of which are usually important edges this time of year.

However, during the conference championship games that kick off this weekend, history shows us that the two remaining teams in each conference are often on fairly equal footing, both straight up and against the spread. You might think the team with the home field has a big edge, but that’s not usually the case this deep into the season. A year ago both underdogs covered in squeakers, with the underdog Giants beating the 49ers in OT (20-17) and the 7-point underdog Ravens nearly winning at New England, blowing a late field goal in a 23-20 defeat.

The last four years six of eight home teams (Colts, Saints, Cardinals, Pats, Steelers twice) won but went 4-4 ATS. Notice that since 1992, the home team has won just 22 of 40 NFL title games straight up, and the visiting team is 22-18 against the spread. Going 22-18 straight up is a slight edge for the home teams, though far from dominant than many might expect to find in the second-biggest game of the season.

Within those statistics remember that there have been plenty of road underdogs that not only got the money, but won the game and advanced to the Super Bowl, including the champion Giants a year ago. Five years ago both road teams covered. The Patriots topped San Diego, 21-12, but failed to cover, while the +7 underdog road Giants won at Green Bay, 23-20. Six years ago Pittsburgh was a road dog at Denver, but clobbered the Broncos 34-17.

In 1995, San Diego was a 9½-point dog at Pittsburgh, but pulled the upset 17-13. In 1999 Atlanta was an 11-point dog at 16-1 Minnesota, yet won 30-27 in overtime, while Tennessee flattened big home favorite Jacksonville, 33-14, in 2000. Nine years ago the Patriots were a double-digit dog at Pittsburgh but won 24-17, and seven seasons ago the upstart Panthers rained on the Eagles’ parade in a 14-3 NFC Championship game upset in a somewhat frustrated city of brotherly love.

Coming into this weekend, the dogs are 16-8 against the spread the last 12 years in the NFL title games. The NFC has seen the dog go 10-3 ATS the last 13 years, including the last three seasons with the Giants, the Packers covering at New Orleans and the Cardinals were a home do to the Eagles. Philadelphia’s trouncing of the Falcons in 2005, 27-10, ended a six-year run by underdogs covering in the NFC championship tilt.

Certainly you can’t discount home field advantage, something the Patriots used in consecutive years to beat up the indoor Colts, 24-14 and 20-3 in the Foxboro cold, with the Colts turning the trick at home in 2007. However, there is generally greater balance between teams simply because at this point in the season, the remaining four teams are very strong and often evenly matched. In mid-January, you rarely find a team that has glaring weaknesses, for example, ranking at the bottom of the NFL in some offensive or defensive category.

It’s difficult for teams with major weaknesses to make the playoffs in the first place, and if they do make it, opposing coaches will attack those weak spots to their own advantage. The cream rises, which is what competition is all about. You also know that teams will be playing at a high level of intensity, as there is so much at stake — the winners go to the Super Bowl, the losers go home and sulk about what might have been. After such a long season, teams that have come this close to the Holy Grail are going to give everything they have for four full quarters.

Slicing the history another way, we find that the favorites are 25-13 straight up in NFL championship games but 19-19 against the spread the last 19 years. The total is 22-16 “over” during that time (2-0 under last January). Oddly, there have been more blowouts by the underdog than the favorite. The NY Giants rolled 41-0 in 2001 over Minnesota as a 2-point home dog. In January of 2000, Tennessee ripped the Jaguars 33-14 as a 7-point road dog.

Several big favorites have struggled, as well. Still, before you jump on the live dogs, remember that the favorites had a nice run of their own from 1993-97 going 8-2 against the spread in the NFL title games. This is why looking at trends and angles must be approached with great caution. The current trend: the favorites are on a mild 6-4 ATS run in Conference Championship games.
Provided by VegasTopDogs.com