How Yards Per Point can be utilized in College Football

How Yards Per Point can be utilized to identify Wagering Opportunities

The Yards Per Point (YPP) metric is a valuable tool for sports handicappers and professional bettors. The offensive version of YPP (OYYP) reveals how efficient a team is scoring points. The lower the number the better as it takes fewer yards to score points. Conversely, the defensive measure of YPP (DYPP) reveals how stingy or soft any defensive unit is when facing any type of offense. The more points per point, the stronger the defense. Of course, then we can use the offensive and defensive differential to reveal team rankings and good solid drill-down to team valuation.

As the first chart displayed next reveals, Ohio university has the most efficient offense in the nation scoring one point for every 11.2 yards they have gained. Of course, they are not the best offensive team overall, and I would add a strength of schedule and conference weighting if two teams are playing from disparate conference types.

So if two teams are from the same conference, then there is a presumed equality of SOS implied. Let’s now take a quick look at Penn State versus Ohio State, which is essentially the BIG Ten matchup of the year. Penn State ranks 5th posting an 11.6 OYYP ratio while OSU ranks 12th in DYYP allowing one point for every 19.8 yards allowed. On the other side of the ball, we see that PSU ranks best in DYYP allowing one point for every 29.6 yards allowed and OSU ranks 18th scoring one point for every 12.2 yards gained.

Taking a look at the more important YPP differential we see PSU ranked best with a 18.0 YPP differential and OSU ranked 10th best with a 8.0 YPP differential. The difference in ranking is marginal, but the difference in YPP performance is monumental between these two BIG TEN foes.

Ohio State has been coming on since their horrid loss at home to Oklahoma earlier this season. Over their last three games, they have posted a 15.3 differential reflecting much improved performances on both sides of the ball. Penn State has performed at superior levels for the entire season and are actually getting better on defense. These observations are not being mentioned in the media and by itself offers you a betting advantage for this matchup.

YPP Differential
Rank Team 2017 Last 3 Last 1 Home Away 2016
1 Penn State 18 15.4 8.6 25.2 2.2 2.9
2 Alabama 12.8 5.5 2 12.8 12.6 7.7
3 Washington 11 8 -10.9 8.4 11.9 6.4
4 Notre Dame 10.5 12.8 13.9 9.4 12.1 0.1
5 Marshall 8.8 29.5 17.6 18.8 4.1 -2
6 VA Tech 8.6 6 18.1 5.7 10.5 2.3
7 Central FL 8.5 6.8 4.4 10.2 6.8 2.1
8 Georgia 8.2 4.8 -2 8.6 7.7 -1.8
9 Clemson 7.8 6 3.1 12.7 6.3 3.7
10 Ohio State 7.6 13.3 16.8 2.2 18.2 7.8
11 Iowa 7.4 6.6 -11.3 17.1 -1.3 5.7
12 Wisconsin 7.3 7.2 9 5.5 12.6 5.9
13 TX Christian 7 12.1 — 5 9.8 0.2
14 Stanford 7 8.5 33.9 9.2 5 4.2
15 Auburn 6.9 3.1 4.6 9.5 5.6 6
16 S Carolina 5.9 5.8 6.6 2.2 9 -1.4
17 Iowa State 5.7 11.5 12.9 3.7 8 -0.8
18 Arkansas St 5.1 16.6 77.8 24.9 0.7 3.8
19 S Florida 4.9 6.2 0 9.5 3.1 3.2
20 Miami (FL) 4.6 0.2 3.2 0.5 15.5 4.8
21 Minnesota 4 -0.2 2.5 4.3 3.4 3.6
22 Kansas St 3.4 0.8 3 5 -1.3 4.8
23 Purdue 3.3 -0.1 -24 3.6 2.9 -5.3
24 Fla Atlantic 3.1 5.4 1.9 2.6 3.7 -2.9
25 Wyoming 3 7 -3 6.7 -3.4 1.1

So, based on this brief look at this huge showdown, there is a distinct advantage to Penn State, yet the media and the public are focusing on the facts that OSU is playing at home and has played so much better since the loss to Oklahoma. In my humble opinion, neither of those reasons is valid to make OSU a 7 point home favorite against a team that destroyed a very good Michigan team that does have a strong defensive unit.

Written by John Ryan of VegasTopDogs.

2016 Big 10 College Football Preview

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Big 10 EAST

1 – OHIO STATE – Are we really going anywhere else here? Urban Meyer is an unbelievable 31-1 in regular season Big 10 play. How can we go against him? I mean, I get he has 3 returning starters on both sides of the ball. But until I see otherwise, Buckeyes get the call.

2 – MICHIGAN – Jim Harbaugh returns 14 starters and is looking to knock off Ohio State. The schedule is a tough one. At Michigan State. At Iowa. They are on the road to end things at the Big House. That should decide who wins the Big 10 and goes to the playoffs.

3 – MICHIGAN STATE – Mark D’Antonio only has 10 starters back and lost his big QB who led the troops. I think they can’t repeat a 12 win season. But the drop off will be there. Besides the 2 teams above them, Penn State is really the only team now, or a year from now, away from moving to the upper levels here. We know the defense will be stout and the run game will look to take pressure off a new QB.

4 – PENN STATE – Another nice recruiting class to add more depth here. They lose an underachieving QB, but still return 9 starters on offense (6 def). HC James Franklin is building back this program. But they are not ready to compete with the big boys yet.

5 – MARYLAND – Another new HC as DJ Durkin takes control of the Terps. This is a pretty experienced coaching staff, so I think they can reach the troops and get them out to a fast start. 4-0 looks possible and if the pull off a road win at Penn State, I can see them at 6-0 before facing Michigan State. I think these guys go bowling and rebound nicely from a 3 win season.

6 – RUTGERS – Scarlet Knights bring 16 starters back (9 off 7 def) and our looking at a fresh start with new HC Chris Ash. This team has some talent and I think the new direction will have these players motivated to overachieve as they have done in the past. Iowa, Ohio State and Michigan b2b2b is surely 0-3 and probably gets ugly. It will take a little luck and an upset or 2 for a bowl bid.

7 – INDIANA – I think Kevin Wilson has his work cut out for him here. When you lose your QB and RB to the NFL and you are a team that was 6-7 last year, you are in for growing pains. Look. I thought this team would be bowling last year. They improved in wins along the way. 6 wins can be reached if they get some good QB play.

Big 10 WEST

1 – IOWA – After going 12-0 the Hawkeyes look to rebound after losing the Big 10 Championship to Michigan St and getting slaughtered by Stanford in the Rose Bowl. This isn’t a sexy group, but does return 8 starters on defense, 5 on offense. Having a senior QB should make 5 Big 10 road manageable, especially since none had winning seasons at home LY. I can’t see another undefeated regular season, but I think they win the west.

2 – NEBRASKA – If anyone is going to rise to to top here and overtake Iowa, the Cornhuskers are my favorite. Look. they were disappointing last year in Mike Riley’s first season. They lost 5 games in the final seconds. They could have easily been 11-2! Woulda coulda shoulda, but a coach like Riley will have his guys build on those losses. 2nd year of the new schemes. They were better than their record last year. I won’t be shocked to see them represent the west in the Championship Game.

3 – NORTHWESTERN – I think they overachieved a bit last year and I can’t see them winning 10 games again. I think they are a hair better than Wiscy because of their defense. They need to be at worse 3-1 entering October because there are 3 losses waiting for them in Iowa, OSU and Michigan State.

4 – WISCONSIN – The schedule is brutal here. Opening against LSU. Then a 4 game stretch of at Michigan State and Michigan, home for Ohio State, road game at Iowa. They were 10-3 last year and could easily be 2-5 in October.

5 – ILLINOIS – Giving Lovie Smith the 5 spot here. He has some decent pieces back at QB and RB and 7 starters back on offense. The D has only 4 starters back so that can be a problem. I just think the new direction will infuse some excitement into the program. The kids will be run through walls for an NFL guy who I am sure is promising to get them ready for the next level.

6 – MINNESOTA – These guys were 5-7 last year and went bowling! Thank you NCAA for watering down the post season. 13 returning starters and that bowl win will have the Gophers with some pep in their step. No Ohio State or Michigan on the schedule. Might get the bowling shoes ready.

7 – PURDUE – All you need to know about the Boilermakers is this. Under HC Darrell Hazell they are now 2-22 in Big 10 play. 8 starters back on both sides of the ball. Does that even matter. They were 2-10 last year. The guy never sticks to a QB. Hot seat? How about absolutely on FIRE. Maybe they steal a game somewhere. But I won’t be shocked if their only win is over Eastern Kentucky.

 

Written by Sean Higgs as he is ready to tackle Big 10 Football!  Be sure to check back daily for other College Football Conference Previews