Tony’s Top 10 NBA Power Ratings Week 5


The NBA Season is in full swing and the teams in the
West are far outplaying the Teams in the East. Here are my weekly Top 10 with
their actual power rating next to them. My power ratings have been sharp so far,
only 2 losses in the NBA season to date and I am still on a low volume, flat
betting approach early in the season. Chicago has a huge scare with Rose going
down on Friday the 22nd with a possible right knee injury (the left one was
repaired last year). The Spurs continue to impress but one has to wonder with
the age of this team how long can it last?

Many teams, especially in the West
getting great guard play and scoring over 100 ppg, but good old fashion defense
is rarely found, and at days end defense wins you games which is one of the main
reasons for the Pacers being ranked #1 this week, they have the best defense in
the NBA YTD. The NBA Atlantic division does not have a team with a winning
record, Toronto and Philly tied for first with 6-7 records. And the Nets are old
and tired and Garnett looks horrific and uninterested. It is a young mans NBA
anymore and a scoring driven league, so your guard play needs to be good, which
you see plenty of . TIP: Away teams are only winning straight up 36% of the
time, so low numbers on home favs are still worthy of a look.

1. Indiana Pacers
(92) – Pacers are hot and the schedule is still soft which makes them my top
choice this week. #1 in defense which allows their 20th ranked offense to get
them wins. Also the best cover team in the NBA at 9-3 ATS!

2. Miami Heat (91) –
LeBron and Company at 9-3. 4th in offense and 8th in defense, #1 in FG% – Can
beat anyone

3. San Antonio (90.5 )- Spurs built for 1 last run as long as Parker
stays healthy- 2nd in the NBA in defense and experience is deep

4. Portland (89)
– 11-2 and handed the Spurs a defeat – Surprise team at first, now proving their
worth – defend the 3 well and scoring 103 a game

5. OK City (89) – Durant and
Westbrook – Enough said – Ibaka in the paint is solid – weak defense so far
which has cost them, they will run with anyone

6. LA Clippers (88) – All star
cast, still working n chemistry – Need to shore up defense, allowing 105 while
scoring 107, not a good road bet yet either

7. Houston ( 87.5) – Best offense in
the NBA, one of the worst defenses. Howard paying small dividends – Linsanity is

8. Golden St ( 87) – Back to back losses headed into weekend, but the
defense is solid and scoring over 101 ppg

9. Dallas (86.5) – Undefeated at home,
Ellis playing big time ball at 23 ppg, defense allowing 103 a game, perimeter is
rarely defended

10. Minnesota (86) – Solid team, but they have OK City, Houston,
Indy and Dallas on deck, time will tell. TOP 3 Best Cover Teams as of 11/23
Indiana, Phoenix, Atlanta and Portland tied

Written by TonyG of

The NBA Playoffs

The NBA playoffs are in full
swing, which means overall the better teams are battling each other. This is
different from the regular season when many nights great teams are playing bad
teams and bad teams are playing worse one. Astute sports bettors should pay very
careful attention to blowouts.

For instance, after losing Game 1 at the
Lakers a year ago, 103-88, the Nuggets covered in a close one in Game 2,
104-100, by changing strategy and going uptempo in the second half. They got
beat on the glass in the first game, but showcased more low post hustle in Game
2 where they outrebounded the taller Lakers.

That’s nothing new. Two
years ago the Lakers blew out the Hornets in Game 3, 100-86, then the a
different New Orleans club showed up the next game, winning straight up as a +5
dog. Three years ago after losing Game 1, the Celtics stunned the Cavaliers in
Game 2, 104-86, at Cleveland as an underdog. At one point they led 91-66. A big
part of the story was Rasheed Wallace, who had been called out by Coach Doc
Rivers after a lousy opener, but added 17 points off the bench.

Incensed, the Cavaliers had a few days to stew about the embarrassing
home defeat, then went to Boston for Game 3 and blew out the Celtics, 124-95. It
was Boston’s worst home playoff defeat in history and the Cavs shot 59%. The
fans booed when Boston left the court at halftime down 65-43. Series over? No.
Boston then won the next three games, including a blowout of their own, 120-88
with Cleveland fans booing their team!

Overall, blowouts are less
expected this time of the year. Oddsmakers are anticipating that the majority of
teams want to be here and will play all out for 48 minutes keeping things
relatively close.

This year’s Hawks/Pacers series is a good example.
Indiana destroyed Atlanta in the first two games, 107-90 and 113-98, only to get
blown out in Game 3, a 90-69 Hawks rout. What happened in Game 2 meant nothing
in predicting Game 3. It wasn’t just home court that turned the trick but some
subtle changes. The Hawks changed up their lineup — inserting 7-footer Johan
Petro at center and bringing 3-point specialist Kyle Korver off the bench —
after getting manhandled on the road. With more favorable matchups and a lot
more energy, Atlanta looked like a different team.

Playoff teams have
some talent or star players, which also makes closer, more competitive games
likely, especially as the playoffs move along. Still, one-sided games can happen
for a variety of reasons. Seven years ago the Spurs positively trashed the Kings
in Game 1, 122-88. The stats on the game were frightening, with San Antonio
shooting 57% and holding the Kings to 39%, while winning the battle of the
boards 51-32.

However, a funny thing happened in Game 2: the Kings
showed up. They showed up with a vengeance, too, taking the Spurs to overtime
before a wild 128-119 loss, though the angry dog still covered. Public
perception can be such that many were thinking the Spurs were going to destroy
the Kings even worse in Game 2. However, the veteran Kings were embarrassed and
angry. A very different team showed up for Game 2, one that was motivated by the

The point is, don’t easily dismiss teams that get routed. If
they have talent, are well coached, or have strong leadership, they can bounce
back and look like a very different team the next game. Another factor to
consider is defense. Many teams that make the postseason know how to play
defense and in a blowout loss, perhaps a team simply had a bad defensive game.
Or, the opponent was doing something that they couldn’t adjust to. Though after
watching game films, adjustments are made, which is why they can look very

Adjustments and motivation can spur a team in a bounce-back
role, as well as the fact that they simply had a bad game. Even handicappers
have to learn not to overanalyze certain situations. The important point is not
too read too much into a single, one-sided game. The playoffs only increase
competitive fire and passion with teams facing each other over and over again,
making adjustments and revenge spots even more acute. You may recall the NBA
Finals seven years ago, when two blowouts were followed by close nail-biters,
with the dog covering. Dallas won Game 2, 99-85, but the next game Miami won by
a basket. In Game 4, the Heat rolled by 24 points, only to see Game 5 go into
overtime and decided by one point.

One season the Celtics danced all
over the Pacers in a 102-82 Game 1 rout. Boston players made foolish comments
after the game about how they were already thinking about advancing to the next
round! In Game 2, a very different Indiana team showed up in an 82-79 win as a
road underdog. They eventually won the series, too. Every dog can have his day
in the NBA playoffs, so be careful: one-sided blowouts can be very different the
next encounter.

Written by Jim Feist of