Tag: College Football

TOP 3 BOUNCE BACK COLLEGE FOOTBALL TEAMS

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Every August I present a list of CFB teams who have underperformed in the previous season and are expected to BOUNCE BACK BIG in the current campaign. In the past, these teams have had an extraordinary history of success both SU and ATS.

Florida State

None of the perennial Top 10 teams has taken a more precipitous dip than these Seminoles. After 42 consecutive winning seasons, Florida State has been on the losing side of the ledger 3 years. The first two were under Willie Taggart (11-14 SU, 8-14 ATS) who returned from Oregon claiming this was his dream job. It turned out to be a nightmare. Last year, Mike Norvell, the highly successful Memphis mentor, including 12-2 SU in 2019, was brought in to clean up the mess. But it all “broke bad”. The ‘Noles dipped to 3-6 SU, being outscore 36-26 including the month of November when they lost by 32 to Louisville, 24 to Pitt, and 16 to NC State.
This season, I am expecting big things from FSU on both sides of the ball. They got a major transfer in QB McKenzie Milton who was cleared to play after a brutal right knee injury resulted in months in a wheel chair and on crutches.
Expect improvement in the defense as well as DC Fuller, who has now been with Norvell for 3 years, has plenty of talent with which to work. Their season opener vs. Notre Dame will likely tell you all you need to know.

LSU

After winning the National Title in 2019, it was easy to predict the Tigers fall from grace to 5-5 SU, 6-4 ATS last year when they returned just 8 starters and had numerous star players opt for the NFL. Forced to play a number of young players who gained instant experience, now returning 17 starters, this team will join the many who expect the Tigers to BOUNCE BACK BIG in 2021. Much may depend on how well these Cats assimilate the new ways of OC Peetz and new DC Jones, each of whom has outstanding credentials.
With plenty of talent and depth, this team will be tough to beat. When they come as underdog be sure to note the success of HC ED Orgeron who has a lifetime record of 25-14 ATS in that role including 9-0 ATS in his 4 years at LSU as road dog.

Penn State

Much like our opinion on LSU, we will put the Nittany Lions on our Bounce Back list. Now his 8th year HC Franklin grew tighter each week, the Lions slipped to 0-5 SU, ATS including a loss (by 16 points) as 27 point home chalk to Maryland. It seems to be said Franklin is a great recruiter but can’t coach his way out of a wet paper bag.
Maybe one should have seen that coming when the Lions were 0-14 Net portal transfers last season. Maybe there is a further signal to be found in the fact 10 more players opted out at the close of 2020.

Nonetheless, credit must be given to Franklin and the Lions for finishing the year 4-0 SU, ATS even though it was against Michigan, Rutgers, Michigan State and Illinois ALL OF WHOM HAD LOSING RECORDS. The numbers certainly did not support the 4-5 SU, ATS record as they outgained their opponents, on average, 430-329 YPG. A -10 Net TO margin and some questionable officiating contributed to their downer year with with turnovers and poor clock management. With QB Clifford returning, a total of 16 returning starters and both coordinators enlisted, I must agree with the bounce back season. WE ARE!

Written by Mike Anthony for VegasTopDogs.com

TOP 5 QB’S in the 2021 NFL DRAFT

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Teams all want the best QB they can get, it’s common sense, and the race to get them – everyone wants the guy who they feel is going to be able to lead them, and get the wins with. The guy who leads them and gets the teams wins. QBs make the team, let’s be honest – regardless of dual threat RBs and great WRs – the QB makes the teams be all end all, and gives confidence to a team and their entire offense. Football is the greatest team sport there is, but the team’s QB is still the heart and the leader of a team.

This year has some very interesting QB names in the QB position – we have the versatile mobile guys and we have the big well known names that make GMs smile. But who is going to be the best of the best of this year’s QB class?
VTD will tell you.
Let’s take a look at the top QBs in this year’s draft.

5.  JUSTIN FIELDS / 6-2, 230lbs, Ohio State
Justin Fields has shown awesome on field capabilities with his feet and his arm, in his excellent career at Ohio State.
He has a slick ability to keep a play alive with his legs when he is under attack, and his 15 rushing TDs certainly confirms that. He is brave – and is willing to take a big hit to complete a pass, as he has a lot of courage when standing in the pocket, he isn’t afraid to take the shot from an oncoming DE to fire a pass. He can generate bigtime plays, whether he is taking off or throwing from the pocket, and he has been a very good passer in his time at OSU with a 68% passing percentage. One problem, he has, is he tends to stay with his WR1, if he isn’t open, it’s a quick look to WR2, then he is ready to move. He needs to get more patience, especially when he needs to start looking for his WR3 and WR4, as he needs to get a bit better reading what the field is giving him. With that being said, he has a really good chance to be good – it’s going to be tricky with him. He is a very interesting, hit or miss QB this year.

4.  MAC JONES  / 6-3, 220lbs, Alabama  
Mac Jones has shown some great improvement as a QB over the last 2 years from accuracy to moving the ball downfield. Jones has a nice soft touch when hitting across the middle, as he has the skill to hit his guys over the top for short 5-6 yard passes against LBs all game long. He isn’t a huge risk taker, and doesn’t take unnecessary throws, he is cautious and plays it safe on his choices of passing plays. When being chased in the pocket, he could get a bit rattled at times – and could get in trouble if things fall apart. But generally, if he is forced to leave the pocket under pressure – he does have the ability to pick up yards. He isn’t cemented to his spot, like some may think. Jones is very self aware of downs and distance – and is the kind of QB who will chuck the ball before taking the loss or throwing a bad pick. Not unsimilar to Aaron Rodgers style. Overall, his game style should be able to transfer to the next level very well.

3. TREY LANCE / 6-4, 230lbs, North Dakota State
Trey Lance plays strength, and can take off upfield if he sees an inch to make something happen, as he is very mobile and can take off and get yards on the ground at any time. Even at his massive size, he moves with ease. Lance is excellent in the pocket – who can get the ball to his guys with accuracy, throwing from tough angles is also not overly tough for him. He can find a way to fire off passes over and around defenders, as he is a beautiful passer. If you haven’t watched him, check him out, it’s pretty nice to watch. Lance also seems to be a genuine good guy, who appreciates his opportunities, that goes a long way for his likeability factor. I think he can be a legitimate franchise QB for a team, in my opinion.

2. ZACH WILSON  / 6-3, 210lbs, BYU
Zach Wilson has a great arm, we all know that, and he knows how to command an offense, he has a great leadership ability. His senior year was awesome, with 33 TDs and 3692 passing yards, along with a whopping 73.5% passing.
Wilson is a big play waiting to happen with his big arm and tight throwing – and he does not leave his guys waiting to get the ball. He has great timing, they turn, they have the ball. The 6-3 QB is not afraid to spread the ball around – he uses all his guys, in 2020 he had 4 guys with 35 or more catches. He finds a way to give himself some room when things go sideways, but has had his struggles vs top teams, having a bit more problems with pressure. So we will see what he does when playing the best. One other issue – if he has had some injury problems, how dependable is he going to be? If he can stay healthy, he has the ability to be very good.

1. TREVOR LAWRENCE  / 6-6, 220lbs, Clemson
We are all aware of Trevor Lawrence, and the adoration for him, he is a generational QB, that comes along once in a while. At 6-6 and 220, he is the perfect prototype for today’s franchise QB, size-wise, along with awesome arm strength, and an uncanny ability to deliver absolute lasers on the field. He carries a commanding presence on the field, with an air of confidence that things are always under control when he is out there. Teams play better with that. To have a QB who you feel is always a few plays away from getting the win, changes everything. He has top notch pocket passing qualities as well as running threat abilities as well, as he ran for 766 YDs and 17 TDs over the last 2 years. When things fall apart – he can make explosive plays happen when moving outside the pocket. He can make all the throws, from simple hitches to going deep. On the easy throws, he is extremely accurate – which is key for any QB worth his weight to make. He has the highest ceiling, without question. He can become a top 5 QB in the NFL in the next 3-4 years.

This NFL draft looks to be loaded with QB talent – let’s see where they go and who lives up to the hype, and who collapses. Be sure to visit VegasTopDogs.com for your daily sports info and predictions.

2019-20 College Footballs Dazzling Dozen

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In this Piece World Renowned Analyst Rob Vinciletti of VegasTopDogs Previews the Top 12 College Football teams for this Upcoming season and looks at top Power Angle that applies to each squad.

1. Clemson- The National Champs are stacked again this season and Dabo Swinney has Top QB Trevor Lawrence at the helm along with 8 returning starters on offense. They will have a bullseye on their back this year but could be undefeated in their final game at South Carolina where they have failed to cover 5 of the last 6 trips. When all is said and done we may see them in the Championship game once again.

2- Alabama- The Tide return 12 starters from last years team and should be a force once again. They have lost just 4 games over the last 4 years. The pack is narrowing on them and they will have a few tough games this year one of which will be against a 10 win LSU team that is loaded on both sides of the ball. The Tide could make it back to the championship game but this wont be an undefeated team. Alabama has failed to cover their last game 6 straight years.

3. Ohio St- Urban Meyer is gone and so is QB Dwayne Haskins, RB Mike Weber and WR Parris Campbell. However add coach Ryan Day and QB Justin Fields from Georgia and they might be even better on offense. Their defense will be much improved with J.K. Dobbins and DE Chase Young as they have 9 starters back on the stop unit. All of their tougher games come at home. However they must be very careful in their final game at Michigan as they go into a major revenge game.

4.Georgia-The Bulldogs have 13 starters back and ended the season with a sour taste in their mouth blowing a lead vs Alabama and then losing to Texas. They should be back and stronger than ever this year. QB Jake Fromm could make a big run for the Heisman and he will have a huge weapon in RB D’Andre Swift in the backfield. The only question is whether they can get past Alabama. A key spot for them in the season finale at Georgia Tech where they have covered 10 straight.

5.Oklahoma- The Sooners will stand tall once again in the BIG 12 and have a chance to have a prolific offense with Jalen Hurts at the helm. They return 9 starters on defense but they will have to really improve on that side of the ball and cant have another season where they allow 450+ yards per game. We like their chance at home vs Texas Tech where they have covered 3 straight and are 11-0 ats at home before 2+ road games.

6. Michigan. The Wolverines have 13 starters back from a solid 10 win team. They have a tough schedule once again but we know for sure they will be up for their last home game against Ohio St as they have 23 point revenge in that one and were not happy about allowing 62 points to their arch rival.

7. LSU- The Tigers may finally have a potent offense to go with the solid defense. They have Former New Orleans Saints offensive assistant Joe Brady in he fold and he will be in charge of the passing game and be the receivers coach. That should really help QB Joe Burrow. The team overall is Loaded with 8 starters back on both sides of the ball as they won 10 games last year. We will be backing them at home in a big revenge spot vs Florida.

8. Florida- The Gators came out of nowhere last year winning 10 games and bouncing back from a 4-7 year. They will be tough again this year under coach Dan Mullen and they have a red circle game at Kentucky as they have home loss revenge and have covered 5 of 6 there.

9. Texas- The Longhorns only have 8 starters back from last years 10 win team but QB Sam Ehlinger will have some of the best numbers in the country. They will have to overcome inexperience on both the offensive and defensive lines but should still be a force in the big 12. We will be looking at them hard vs Oklahoma as they have Playoff loss revenge.

10. Notre Dame- The Irish bring back 13 starters from last years 12 win team. The only loss coming at the hands of Clemson. If they can get past Georgia and Michigan, both of which are road games they can be right in the mix again. We like their chances at home vs USC where they have covered 3 straight vs the Trojans and 5 of 6 at home vs PAC 12 Schools.

11. Texas A@M- The Aggies did well winning 9 games under Jimbo Fisher. They will be a solid squad this year but they will be tested early with a road game at Clemson and later on with road games at LSU and Georgia as well as a home game with Alabama. They have 11 starter back and will either be real good or could fall off to a .500 team if things dont break their way.

12. Oregon- The Ducks won 9 games last season and will be Washington’s biggest threat in the Pac-12. They need Qb Herbert to stay healthy. They are loaded on both sides of the ball with 17 starters back and could better this rating. We will be looking at them hard when they play with home loss revenge at Stanford.

In closing we hope you enjoyed the Analysis and will be with us for another superb season in college football. Rob is the Only 2 time overall seasonal leader in combined football. Be sure to check his page daily for free selections and analysis in all major sports as he continues to use the most powerful and cutting edge data in the industry. Best of luck and enjoy this upcoming season.

Be sure to check his page daily for free selections and analysis in all major sports as he continues to use the most powerful and cutting edge data in the industry. Best of luck and enjoy this upcoming season. Be sure to visit VegasTopDogs for your college football and NFL winners.

CLEMSON VS ALABAMA AND PROPS: THE WAY TO WIN

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This 2018-19 NCAA College Football season has been a long one, but a very good one indeed. It was exactly what every fan had hoped for and much more. From a gambling perspective it was even better. This was the year to make a lot of money. The big named programs covered week in and week out, many of the mid-tier programs were better than ever and surprised a lot of people. Overall, it was a great year to bet on college football.

 

Clemson Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Preview and Predictions

 

The good news, there is still time to win money! The season may be over but there is one last shot to rake it in and big. This championship game on Monday night is going to be one of the best that college fans have ever witnessed. It matters not if you hate Alabama, hate Clemson, hate the ACC or hate the SEC. What matters is making money. Who cares what teams are playing? What matters is who can win this thing and who has the better chance to win the team props. There are some really good ones, so be sure to ask your bookmaker about them and where to find them. Betting the props in this game is a much better way to go this year than betting sides or totals. Call your online bookie and ask.  

 

Online Sportsbooks Remain the ‘Best Bet’ for US Players

 

Here we are, the last hurrah, the final chapter that closes the book on the season. The Clemson Tigers come in with a 14-0 record and the Alabama Crimson tide come in with a 14-0 record. We all know that Nick Saban has done everything. This guy is 146-20 since 2007 as head coach of the Tide and has count them—Five national titles and this would be number six at Alabama, since taking over in 07.

 

Offshore Sportsbooks vs. Sports Betting in the US

 

Clemson is the only team to have beaten Alabama in a title game since Saban took over. Dabo Swinney is the second best coach in all of college football and his record proves it. He will have his team ready to play ball and this game will go to the last minute, right down to the wire and will be ever so close.

 

Props to look for:

 

  1. Alternative point spreads— this is a fun way to play a football game and especially fun if you have a particular rooting interest. It can certainly be a way to make some nice cash but also a way to further your chances of actually winning something. An alternative line shaves point off the favorite and adds points to the underdog. In a game like this one, an alternative spread can turn out extremely valuable. As you take or give points the price goes up, but you are certainly giving yourself a much better shot at winning the game. What would you rather play, Clemson + 5.5 or Clemson + .5? Maybe you like Alabama at -5.5, what would you rather play, -5.5 or -.5? On down the line Alternative spreads go. We have given you an example but again, check with your favorite online bookie.

 

  1. Winning Margin— another fun prop, that lets you bet the amount you think one team can win by, over another.

 

  1. Race to points— which team hits a certain number first? A big money maker if you play your cards right.

 

  1. Team to score first, total touchdowns by one team or the other team, first score method how many field goals, highest scoring quarter, total sacks, game to go overtime…. And many more.

 

Have fun with this game and bet the props. Dial up your bookie and find what props you like and know that this is the way in this game. Who knows who wins this thing… it’s going to be close. Betting the props is the best way to approach this years NCAA National CFB Championship Game.

 

College Football Bowl Action

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The College Football Bowl games kickoff on Saturday with 5 Bowl matchups and our Expert Handicappers are ready

to roll at VegasTopDogs.

We have a lot of handicappers who sell picks on our site. Sometimes it can be tough to filter through everyone and make a decision on which expert has the best chance to make you money.  With the College Football Bowl games starting this Saturday we will break down some of the top experts from the College Football Season.  Other handicappers, well they specialize in types of bets. Some may be good at everything, others are better at totals than point spreads or vice versa.

Consider this article your private cheat sheet to higher profits this year and view all rankings in all sports here: VegasTopDogs Money Leaders

With the regular-season in the books, it’s time to focus our attention to the top handicappers to follow for bowl season.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL:

 

A.J. PENNY:

If you are looking for one of our top bowl experts, A.J. Penny and his 58-33 college football record this season would be at the top of the list for most.  Hitting (64%) this year he is primed and ready on all bowl picks, which has netted his $100 players over $27,000 in profits. Don’t miss out on any bowl picks for 2018-19. Get signed up for a premium long-term subscription today for just $350.

 

Tony K:

No surprise to see TonyK and 3G-Sports as one of the top cappers to follow during bowl season. Tony is one of our top long-term earners on the college gridiron going 55-33 in college football this year and bring in over 14K for his $100 players. Be sure to grab his College Football Bowl Bonanza package now as he historically does extrmemly well during this time of the year.  Now is the perfect time to find a subscription that works best for you. Click here to view his packages!

 

Doug Upstone:

Doug Upstone has been at or near the top of the NCAAF leaderboard for most of the 2018 season. He is currently ranked No. 3, posting a 60% win rate during the regular season. There’s a good chance he will stay hot, as Doug has hit 61% (88-56) of all his bowl plays going back to 2014. If you are struggling to pick winners on your own, I encourage you to give Doug Upstone a try!

 

Ray Monohan

Here’s another guy that consistently shows to have an edge over the books in the College Football. He’s  delivered $93,000 in profits for his dime players this week.  A big chunk of those profits have come after the first month of the season. Ray has been hot across all leagues the past 30 days.  Find out what premium packages Ray has to offer and start winning more of your bets. Check out his premium plays here!

 

Boise State Broncos vs. Oregon Ducks – Las Vegas Bowl

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Las Vegas Bowl

Saturday, December 16th, 2017

Boise State Broncos vs. Oregon Ducks

This is a great game and you can expect more defense than Vegas probably wants you to think there will be. The Broncos can put the screw to teams and although they will have their hand full with a reasonably potent Oregon offense, remember this; this is not the same old Oregon Ducks. They are better than in the recent couple of years but not great. The Chip Kelly days are long gone as well as the high flying quarterback such as Marcus Mariota. There are a tons of great games this year and some, bring great sports betting value. Find out which ones are great, and find out which ones are not so great. Enjoy the bowl season and good luck.

 

The Broncos are a funny team. They can pour it on when they feel the need and urgency and they can also lay up a stinker at will. When they stink up the joint, they tend to do it in grand fashion. The Broncos are not the Broncos of a decade ago. Ten years ago and even further back they were an up and coming power house. Chris Petersen was in town and it was high scoring, good times. They were kicking everybody’s tail and taking the college football world by storm. That Broncos team and program in general, have left the building. The Broncos struggled against Fresno State but the defense kept them in it. If the Broncos win this game it will be on the strength of the defense.

 

The Ducks are not even close to the once grand powerhouse that they used to be. This program has fallen from grace and done it very quickly. The Oregon Ducks football program was a national frontrunner, a team that could be counted on to go the distance and always be a national championship contender. As much as Boise State is rebuilding, the Ducks are rebuilding even more. This team is trying to find itself in every way. The offense is tremendous when they find it and the defense is good when they use it! This game will be a competitive matchup and a back and forth duel. Look for the defense on both sides to be somewhat better than Vegas thinks it will be. Tis one could easily go under the total and should go to the wire. Have fun with this one and be sure to check out the latest prop odds. There are some good ones in this game.

This affair is always fun simply because of the Las Vegas presence. It’s even more fun to be there in person and have a little action on the side. There is nothing quite like betting on a game and seeing the game live, in person. The best thing, is cashing that ticket after the game. If you can’t be there in person, not all is lost. You can still dial up the online sports bookie service and win some cash. Have fun with this one and good luck.

 

How Yards Per Point can be utilized in College Football

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How Yards Per Point can be utilized to identify Wagering Opportunities

The Yards Per Point (YPP) metric is a valuable tool for sports handicappers and professional bettors. The offensive version of YPP (OYYP) reveals how efficient a team is scoring points. The lower the number the better as it takes fewer yards to score points. Conversely, the defensive measure of YPP (DYPP) reveals how stingy or soft any defensive unit is when facing any type of offense. The more points per point, the stronger the defense. Of course, then we can use the offensive and defensive differential to reveal team rankings and good solid drill-down to team valuation.

As the first chart displayed next reveals, Ohio university has the most efficient offense in the nation scoring one point for every 11.2 yards they have gained. Of course, they are not the best offensive team overall, and I would add a strength of schedule and conference weighting if two teams are playing from disparate conference types.

So if two teams are from the same conference, then there is a presumed equality of SOS implied. Let’s now take a quick look at Penn State versus Ohio State, which is essentially the BIG Ten matchup of the year. Penn State ranks 5th posting an 11.6 OYYP ratio while OSU ranks 12th in DYYP allowing one point for every 19.8 yards allowed. On the other side of the ball, we see that PSU ranks best in DYYP allowing one point for every 29.6 yards allowed and OSU ranks 18th scoring one point for every 12.2 yards gained.

Taking a look at the more important YPP differential we see PSU ranked best with a 18.0 YPP differential and OSU ranked 10th best with a 8.0 YPP differential. The difference in ranking is marginal, but the difference in YPP performance is monumental between these two BIG TEN foes.

Ohio State has been coming on since their horrid loss at home to Oklahoma earlier this season. Over their last three games, they have posted a 15.3 differential reflecting much improved performances on both sides of the ball. Penn State has performed at superior levels for the entire season and are actually getting better on defense. These observations are not being mentioned in the media and by itself offers you a betting advantage for this matchup.

YPP Differential
Rank Team 2017 Last 3 Last 1 Home Away 2016
1 Penn State 18 15.4 8.6 25.2 2.2 2.9
2 Alabama 12.8 5.5 2 12.8 12.6 7.7
3 Washington 11 8 -10.9 8.4 11.9 6.4
4 Notre Dame 10.5 12.8 13.9 9.4 12.1 0.1
5 Marshall 8.8 29.5 17.6 18.8 4.1 -2
6 VA Tech 8.6 6 18.1 5.7 10.5 2.3
7 Central FL 8.5 6.8 4.4 10.2 6.8 2.1
8 Georgia 8.2 4.8 -2 8.6 7.7 -1.8
9 Clemson 7.8 6 3.1 12.7 6.3 3.7
10 Ohio State 7.6 13.3 16.8 2.2 18.2 7.8
11 Iowa 7.4 6.6 -11.3 17.1 -1.3 5.7
12 Wisconsin 7.3 7.2 9 5.5 12.6 5.9
13 TX Christian 7 12.1 — 5 9.8 0.2
14 Stanford 7 8.5 33.9 9.2 5 4.2
15 Auburn 6.9 3.1 4.6 9.5 5.6 6
16 S Carolina 5.9 5.8 6.6 2.2 9 -1.4
17 Iowa State 5.7 11.5 12.9 3.7 8 -0.8
18 Arkansas St 5.1 16.6 77.8 24.9 0.7 3.8
19 S Florida 4.9 6.2 0 9.5 3.1 3.2
20 Miami (FL) 4.6 0.2 3.2 0.5 15.5 4.8
21 Minnesota 4 -0.2 2.5 4.3 3.4 3.6
22 Kansas St 3.4 0.8 3 5 -1.3 4.8
23 Purdue 3.3 -0.1 -24 3.6 2.9 -5.3
24 Fla Atlantic 3.1 5.4 1.9 2.6 3.7 -2.9
25 Wyoming 3 7 -3 6.7 -3.4 1.1

So, based on this brief look at this huge showdown, there is a distinct advantage to Penn State, yet the media and the public are focusing on the facts that OSU is playing at home and has played so much better since the loss to Oklahoma. In my humble opinion, neither of those reasons is valid to make OSU a 7 point home favorite against a team that destroyed a very good Michigan team that does have a strong defensive unit.

Written by John Ryan of VegasTopDogs.

Double Digit College Football Bowl Mastery

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college-bowl-games

The college bowl season is underway with a multitude of games for the gridiron faithful and sports investors as well. After a week off we are back with our College Football System of the Week which takes a look at a special situation involving bowl favorites.

With so many college bowl games and so many different types of teams facing one another you might expect us to have a complex college system for this week’s bowl action. Well we are presenting a college bowl system that is far from complex it is very simple in terms of what it requires to be active. Do not let its simplicity fool you it has been deadly to the bookmakers posting a 100 percent perfect record against the spread since 1981.

When researching systems most of us have a few parameters that we would consider baseline parameters such as favorites, underdogs, home games, away games, etc. So we began this week’s work wondering how double-digit favorites performed in bowl games.

The sports investment marketplace is a lot like the Stock Market in that it is cyclical in nature with underdogs the play for a period of time and then there is a correction in the market and favorites become the play for cashing tickets at the window. One fact that makes our system so powerful it has not been affected by the corrections in the sports market over the last thirty-six years. When it qualifies a play it wins both straight up and against the spread.

All we asked of our double-digit bowl favorite was for them to be coming off a straight up win in their last game while their opponent ended their regular season by suffering a straight up loss. The final parameter for our system asks that our opponent not be on extended rest of forty-four days or more prior to their bowl game. That is the system of the week with just a few simple parameters making up our perfect situation.

The NCAA Football System of the Week tells us to Play ON a Bowl favorite of ten or more points coming off a straight up win versus an opponent with less than forty-four days rest coming off a regular season straight up loss. The system has a record of 9-0 SU winning by an average of 25.11 points per game and 9-0 ATS covering the spread by an average of 12.33 points per game since 1981.

We were surprised by the number of games that are active in our system this bowl season. Since 1981 there have been just nine qualifying contests until this year where we currently have four active bowl games in our perfect system. We could see that number change moving forward because one of the system parameters is based on the actual line on the game (double-digit favorite).

For us the first qualified game is the one that we are using as our NCAA Football System Play of the Week. We head south to the Miami Beach Bowl at Marlins Park where the Central Michigan Chippewas will take on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane on Monday night. Tulsa ended their season by defeating the Cincinnati Bearcats 40 to 37. The Central Michigan Chippewas were not as fortunate they lost on the road at Eastern Michigan as a 1-point road favorite 26 to 21 to give them a .500 record of 6-6 SU on the season. The oddsmakers have installed the Tulsa Golden Hurricane as 12.5-point favorites in this game.

With all the system parameters met we will step to the window and make our play on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane minus the points in the Miami Beach Bowl on Monday night. Remember there are three more qualified games in our system and they may also deserve a look for a possible play in their respective bowl matchups. Have a great College Bowl Season and as always good luck.

Written by Cajun Sports of VegasTopDogs.

College Football: Time for a Change at Nebraska

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nebraska

Tony George of VegasTopDogs-

With numerous coaching posts opening up in College Football, there should be a few others not in the headlines. I can name a few for you. Cincinnati, Texas Tech, Arizona, Notre Dame, Missouri, UCLA, Oregon, and most notably not being talked about is once powerful Nebraska. As an alum and avid Husker fan, Mike Riley is not the answer. I have family member’s who are hardcore Husker fans that swear by this guy, and honestly he is an average coach at best, a bad game manager, and 3 time loser, soon to be 4 time loser. Twice at Oregon State where the Beavers never amounted to much of anything and never once were in the college football narrative unless they were playing Oregon in their annual rivalry, which Oregon beat the hell out of the OSU more times than not, and the San Diego Chargers who ran him out of town on a rail car.

Being a nice guy gets you a pay it forward coffee at Starbucks, not a conference or even a division title. Husker fans demand winning, and yet settle for mediocrity and think it will happen next year with highly touted recruits that are not coached well. The loyalty of the Husker fans is commendable, but blind loyalty gets you nowhere but the middle of the pack or worse when you fail to realize changes need to be made. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. Sound familiar Husker Nation? Mike Riley replaced Bo Pellini, and he is the polar opposite of Bo, a cool demeanor that makes you wonder seeing him on the sideline if he even knows they are playing in a game, versus Bo, how would go ballistic over a missed block on a special teams play with a 20 point lead. Nebraska needs to find a happy medium.

Once you watch a game like Nebraska played against Iowa the day after Thanksgiving, I would hope to assume that Athletic Director Shawn Eichorst had the same gut punch feeling any educated Nebraska fan had, we are an also ran in a Conference where getting to the top goes through Columbus Ohio and Ann Arbor Michigan, and when Nebraska visited one of those MECCA’s of college football this year they walked out a 62-3 loser, a total embarrassment to the entire program. Your fate is 3-5 losses a year, all against ranked opponents and the biggest fade team in big games in Las Vegas on the betting line against them, at least the gamblers are happy.

The final nail in the coffin of recruiting happened in the past 4 day Holiday weekend. Nebraska fails to even look like they prepared for a football game, no sense of urgency or pride, and let an unranked Iowa dominate them in every facet of a game, and Riley was badly out coached, his assistant’s out coached, and some of the worst play calling on display out of every game played over the weekend, a 30 point behind the woodshed butt kicking by a middle of the pack team who had failed on offense all year, and the Huskers made them look like Chip Kelly was coaching Oregon again .

Then the drama of Ohio State / Michigan took center stage this weekend, more eyes on that game than the Iron Bowl with Alabama / Auburn. Guess who all the Big 10 recruits want to play for? The team crushing Nebraska on Friday for sure, and Michigan and Ohio State, both teams whose coaches are the cats meow of college football. Nebraska loses again. As an AD at Nebraska, settling for a nice bowl game (NU went to a bowl last year with just 5 wins), and making a decent showing in the top 50 of college football power rankings is not going to continue to sell out memorial Stadium in Lincoln Nebraska. You go big or go home Mr. Eichorst, plain and simple.

Penn State was left for dead after the Sandusky scandal and Joe Pa passing away, and look at them now. They knocked off an opponent that was #2 in the nation and find themselves in a Big 10 Conference Championship. They went out and got themselves a hot coach who can recruit and coach young men to over achieve, and they are back in the college football narrative because of it. The point is it can be done, you can compete against the Alabama’s, Michigan’s, Ohio State and Clemson’s of the world. Washington went out and hired a good coach out of Boise State, paid big money to get him and look at them now. Again, my point is it can be done, and it starts with a head coach who has some moxie. Mike Riley is parading as a big time College Football coach, masquerading as one actually, and it is putting the Husker Football program back 5 years every time he gets in a big game and gets his rear end coached off.

Who can Nebraska get and turn up the heat and compete at a high level and attract the type of players through recruiting than can play the type of football required in the Big 10 to succeed you ask? Scott Frost. It is time Nebraska, your National Title Winning QB from 1997, Tom Osborne’s last team. An offensive coordinator at Oregon, and new head coach of Central Florida who took an 0-12 left for dead team in 2015, and put them in a bowl game this year in less than 12 months. He has the mettle, pedigree and price tag Nebraska needs, not to mention deep Husker ties.

Mike Riley is running a loose version of the West Coast offense with an OL that cannot block, and players not suited to run it. He continues to live in the stone ages and fails to adapt to what can get it done in the Big 10. It is time for a change at Nebraska. I have no doubt Mike Riley is a good guy, a gentleman of the game, and is doing all he can, it simply is not enough if Nebraska wants to be a player on the national landscape of college football. The Husker Nation is getting tired of talking about the 90’s and what used to be. If no change is made that is exactly what Husker Nation is going to talking about for the next decade.

Breaking News: Sunday Coach Riley fired his Special teams Coordinator. I doubt that satisfies any knowledgeable Husker fan. He forgot to fire his OC and DC.

Tony George is a professional handicapper and national sports Broadcaster on SB Nation Radio.

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are on a roll

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The Nebraska Cornhuskers, the team of the 90’s who won 3 National Titles under legendary coach Tom Osborne are back in the news again with a Top 8 ranking after a long absence from the college football conversation as one of the top programs in the country. Like the Alabama of today, the Huskers dominated team’s year after year in the 90’s, and when they lost talent to graduation, they simply reloaded and it was business as usual the following season. Lincoln was a feared place to play, Big 8 titles came with ease in the 80’s and Big 12 title games were the norm against Texas or Oklahoma every year. Times have changed and it has been a rough go for die hard Husker Nation, and I say that with credit-ability, because I am an alum and avid Husker fan, but I am also a realist.

After a bevy of coaches have come and gone since Osborne, Frank Solich who was fired a year removed from a national title game and a 9-win season, Bill Callahan came and went after a failed experiment of an NFL coach to take over, and then Bo Pelini who was ran out of town on a railcar with a new AD, the Huskers finally settled on long term Oregon State coach Mike Riley to head the program out of the Pelini era into a new one. It has not been a smooth ride but here the Huskers are, one of the few unbeaten teams left in College Football. The problem is the schedule that remains and the struggles to date to remain undefeated, included a nail biter against Indiana last week.

The simple math is hard to argue, while others have fallen Nebraska remains undefeated and they will be undefeated after this weekend with lowly Purdue in town, who fired their coach last Sunday, who Nebraska has had circled on the schedule ever since the Huskers lost in a huge upset last year to and gave up 55 points on defense, and I fully expect a blowout in Lincoln this week in payback mode.

The issue is because NU is undefeated, pollsters have them ranked inside the Top 10 this week, and the only signature win is a 3 point win over Oregon in Lincoln, and quite frankly Oregon is a .500 ball club who has been hammered by good teams all year including Washington hanging 70 on them in Eugene this year. It should be noted that when it comes to the polls and rankings, they have nothing to do with power ratings used by oddsmakers and handicappers when selecting point spread winners.

My power rating has Nebraska ranked 22nd in the NCAA, not 8th. LSU who is a 2 loss team I have ranked 8th in my power ratings as an example. Other 2 loss teams I have ranked in from of unbeaten Nebraska are Oklahoma, Auburn, Wisconsin, Tennessee, Miami, and Washington State. How about 1 loss teams ranked in front of #8 Nebraska, like Louisville who would beat Nebraska by 14+ points in my opinion, or Florida, or perhaps an unbeaten Western Michigan, all ranked in front of the Huskers.

My point is simple, do not base any type of Las Vegas Angle type of action on a team based on polls you see in USA Today, because Nebraska will be 7-0 this week and may very well move up in the polls yet again after a blowout over Purdue in Lincoln, in revenge mode with Purdue limping into town. The good news is Huskers fans will have a bowl to go to, and bear in mind Nebraska was a 5-win team last year that got to a bowl game and beat UCLA. That game gave them momentum and recruiting has been better for NU for the future, but for now with a defense that is pedestrian at best, and an inconsistent but good QB in Tommy Armstrong, and a bevy of RB’s than can pound out yards.

Nebraska is a nice story but one that will end with 3 losses before it is all said and done, with a road trip to Madison Wisconsin looming large for them next week and the following week a trip to Columbus Ohio to get destroyed by Ohio State. In other words, do not lend credence to the ranking after this week. As a huge Husker fan I would like to see them win the next three weeks in a row and be the surprise team of 2016, it simply will not happen.

Written by Tony George of VegasTopDogs