NFL Season Win Totals

Win totals on the board at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday, April 29th 2018:

  • Patriots 11
  • Steelers 10.5
  • Eagles 10.5
  • Packers 10
  • Vikings 10
  • Rams 9.5
  • Saints 9.5
  • Panthers 9
  • Falcons 9
  • 49ers 9
  • Chargers 9
  • Jaguars 9
  • Texans 8.5
  • Cowboys 8.5
  • Chiefs 8.5
  • Seahawks 8
  • Raiders 8
  • Ravens 8
  • Titans 8
  • Lions 8
  • Redskins 7
  • Bengals 7
  • Broncos 7
  • Giants 6.5
  • Buccaneers 6.5
  • Bills 6.5
  • Bears 6.5
  • Colts 6.5
  • Dolphins 6
  • Jets 6
  • Browns 5.5
  • Cardinals 5.5

It looks like the Arizona Cardinals and the Cleveland Browns are going to be the worst teams in the NFL this season.  A couple of early leans we like are the LA Rams and Jacksonville Jaguars OVER the number for season wins.  We’ll have much more in the NFL as the season gets closer this summer.

 

 

Baseball Betting Made Fun with Total Runs Scored First Four Innings

Betting on Major League Baseball can be one of the most profitable sports to bet on in all of pro sports and the “wise guys” make a very good living doing just that. Baseball is built for the long haul so if you are looking for a gambling quick fix, this may not be your sport. If you are looking for a game that can make you a ton of money over the course of a season, then baseball is definitely your game.

When betting baseball two very important points come to mind, that is have a budget and by budget we mean, know what you can spend nightly and have a plan as to how much you want to spend on each game; stick to it.

Three Good Ways to Buy Bitcoins at an Online Sportsbook

 

Baseball is a demanding sport to bet on and as a bettor you must be prepared to lose. This is the one sport that you must budget for loss. It’s very simple, in baseball, you are going to win a lot and lose many games over the course of a season. The reason for this is a “loss factor”. Baseball is an extremely long season with 162 games in a schedule. The best of the best in baseball win around 100 games and lose around 50-60 games each season. As a gambler, you must pick your spots.

 

Find a great online baseball sportsbook. Bookies are a dime a dozen on the internet, everyone wants your money but is everyone willing to pay out quickly when you beat them? There are bookies that cater to baseball and baseball bonuses, do your homework and find the ones that cater to baseball and that cater to American players.

 

A few of tonight games are a great example of the difficulties in betting baseball such as the Dodgers taking on the Marlins with Kershaw on the mound and Vegas posting an early line of -360 the Astros taking on the Angels with Verlander at -220. With these kinds of numbers it’s hard to win anything. Not many gamblers want to spend $3.60 to win a dollar or $2.20 in the Astros case. Both of these numbers are huge and it’s a risk that most simply won’t take.

 

Pay Per Head’s Live In-Game MLB Betting Options

This leads to a great example of how to beat Vegas at their own game. We know that Kershaw and Verlander are pitching tonight’s games and we know the reputation for both of these guys. Although Kershaw hasn’t opened the season in grand fashion as he sits ate 1-3 on the year, you can count on him breaking out of this funk and finding a rhythm sooner than later. It’s bound to happen and it will. Verlander has started the season off in grand fashion at 3-0 and he looks like the same ole trusty and reliable Verlander. He is tough to beat and will be hard to beat tonight.

Playing totals in the first four innings can be lucrative and well worth your time and picking your spots is important. Tonight is one of those nights. Verlander is taking on the Angels who happen to be hitting well and have opened the season at 16-8, the Dodgers and Kershaw are taking on the Marlins and Vegas has piled it on tonight thinking that the Marlins have no chance. There is no guarantee of anything in baseball and anything can happen.

Play it safe and jump on the first five inning totals. Verlander and Kershaw are not going to surrender many runs through the first four against anybody. Check with your favorite bookie for the latest lines and odds and have fun.

Handicapping the NCAA Tournament

March Madness is finally here and gamblers everywhere are looking for advice. Not only are they looking for advice, they are looking for direction and they want to know who to bet on. The average gambler has very little idea who to bet on but there is one sure thing; they are going to bet. March is easily the busiest time of year for not only Las Vegas, Nevada, it’s also the busiest time of year for the online sports betting.

There is not a more bet on sport than college basketball. The NCAA is easily the largest revenue maker for the betting industry and March is easily the busiest month in all of sports betting. Suffice it to say, somebody is making an enormous amount of money. Who is raking in the profits? Is it the sportsbooks-the bookies worldwide or is it the gambler? It’s safe to say that the gambler is not seeing the profits. The sportsbooks are raking it in by the boatload. Somebody is getting rich and it seems that it’s not the gambler.

A gambler is an investor. Gambling is an investment and March is the best time of year to see a huge return on the investment. So why is it that the banks (sportsbooks, bookies) are making all the profits? There is a very simple answer to what may seem like a complex question.

Related: Pay Per head services are on the rise and for good reason.

 

When investors make decisions to place their money in a market or purchase a stock they usually get some good advice from investors that have studied the market, from investors that are in the know and from people that are educated in that particular field. It’s certainly possible to get investing advice from a mechanic and it may even be good advice in the short term but will it last long term?

 

Who is the best person to get betting advice from?

 

Is it from people who bet? There are a lot of people who bet, let’s face the facts, not all of these people are successful. Remember who is getting rich here. It’s not the gamblers, or the sportsbooks would no longer be in business. Just as in the banking world, the gambling world has professional forecasters that study games. They do this for a living and they are good at it. Predicting sports has become a science and a multimillion dollar industry in its own right.

 

Here is the key to some success when betting the NCAA Tournament.

 

Find great forecasters, find people who know what they are talking about. Everyone has an opinion when it comes to sports but not everyone can be trusted with your money. You work too hard to throw it away. Would you take medical advice from someone that you had never heard of or someone that came with no verifiable references or experience?  

 

Start booking online with Realbookies.com software

There are outstanding services available on the web. If you are looking for some help this year, than by all means, get help. Don’t go March alone! Get help from professionals that know what they are talking about and professionals that come with a winning track record. Find a great service that picks games for a living and that has great handicappers either as independents or as part of their staff. There are game advising sites out there that can make this year a profit instead of a loss.

 

 

What is the definition of a sports dynasty

We as sports fans have watched a multitude of great teams come and go over many tears of watching the amazing sports that we love. Teams like the Boston Celtics, the New York Yankees, Dallas Cowboys and most recently, the New England Patriots. What is one thing that we could all actually be in agreeance on.  Odds are, they have been consistent historical winners, and oftentimes, the sheer mentioning of these teams brings anger and frustration to fans of other teams, and opposing fan bases get annoyed and aggravated when hearing about them.
Because they have been incredibly successful. They had a period where they were dominating their division, their conferences, and their leagues for a lengthy amount of time, and this in itself, angers others. And if we are being completely honest with ourselves, as fans, they are the teams that we wish our teams could emulate. Who wouldn’t love their underachieving, yet steady 7-9 football team to rack up 12 wins in the season every year, like the New England Patriots or have the reputation and great players, seemingly always, like Pittsburgh and be a preseason favorite to win it all, before the season even begins? We all would love that.
By definition from dictionary.com – a dynasty is regarded as a noun 1. a sequence of hereditary rulers: an Egyptian dynasty or 2. any sequence of powerful leaders of the same family: the Kennedy dynasty
But is that what you, as a sports fan consider as a dynasty?
A ruler?
Lets examine.
A teams season wins count for something. A winning team that has been putting up a large amount of wins a season for a lengthy and long period of time is a huge component for being called a dynasty. In the NBA, the Cleveland Cavaliers have racked up a .654 win pct over the last 3 seasons – which is far ahead of the next best teams in the Eastern conference  like hot teams like the Toronto Raptors and the Boston Celtics. Winning is hard anyway you look at it, but winning 65% of your games for a lengthy period of time is pretty impressive. Not having the oddball eye opening season of big wins, like the New York Giants or the Portland Trail Blazers – but the 15 straight seasons of 10 wins or more like the New England  Patriots or 8 of the last 11 seasons, like the Pittsburgh Steelers  is something to be admired.
Playoff appearances have to count for a huge part of the equation, absolutely. For instance, New England has made the tournament for 9 straight seasons. The fact is, a team that has been able to utterly dominate their division and blow passed them, and get to the playoffs for so many years straight, is pretty impressive. Who wouldn’t want to feel they had a team that did that every single season? And making it to the championship of their sport is beyond comprehension for the vast majority of sports fans. It isn’t commonplace, which is sometimes misunderstood. What the Buffalo Bills did back in the 90’s was amazing, lets be completely honest about that. How many teams make the Super Bowl – let alone, 4 straight? I will tell you…. it doesn’t happen, that is why we always cherish the precious moment if our team makes it there.
Do you seriously consider the Bills a dynasty though? Or when you think of dynasties do you think of Troy Aikman and the Dallas Cowboys? You think of Dallas and I will tell you why. Not only did they win 3 Super Bowls during a 4 year timeframe, but they were one of the teams to beat for about a decade. And going back to an original statement – why do you think Dallas has so many fans that dislike the team? Because they won and they won for a long period of time.
That’s why.
Championships are the ultimate way to openly judge a dynasty. How many times have they won the top honors as the ultimate team to beat. The Yankees won 5 championships over 14 years from 1996-2009, and made it to the World Series 6 times in 8 years. The Patriots have made it to at least the conference championship at least 10 times over 15 seasons. And the Celtics hung up 11 titles from 1956 to 1968.
It’s trying for most of teams, especially those that are usually a middling organization, like the New Orleans Saints, the Detroit Pistons and the Indiana Pacers and you may question why or what happened, or the best of the hypothetical questions  the “what if…” Trust me, we all have entertained those deep thoughts in our heads….but then reality comes back around, and who  actually completed their goals and made the right draft picks and hired the right coaches.
Regardless of how you calculate the way you measure a teams success factor to be a dynasty. A team that wins and wins big consistently for a multitude of years, that’s what a dynasty is. A team that doesn’t play down to their opponents, a team that teams fear, and wins across their league – that is the true signs and key to being called a real dynasty. A team that seems to never get worse, a team that thrill their fans and infuriates fans of other teams, based on their immense amount of success, that is when your team has become a real dynasty.
In sports games we often judge a team, by their championships, or a player, often unfairly, by the 5 boxes that we look at. But a team that brings championships to teams, is the ultimate sign of success for an organization, and those are considered what makes a true dynasty.

Jared Goff is the LA Rams QB of the future

Les Snead was a crafty NFL general manager, when he made the calculated moves that he made – when he traded 6 draft picks in 2016 to obtain the No. 1 selection. Snead used the top spot to grab the California Jr. – Jared Goff who had finished up a fantastic season with 4714YDs, 43 TDs and a 65% completion ratio.
At 6-4 and 230 – Goff certainly passed the eye test to anyone who watches QBs. With smooth play, a good arm, and the exceptional ability to be able to throw his guys open – Jared Goff was everything that a team would want to see on paper – the Rams fans were stunned when he was grabbed over Carson Wentz – who the media was going gaga over. Goff was sitting as the prototype spread offense QB. Wentz played at a far from “big time” school at North Dakota St. – and was playing at what was considered, by some, to be in an inferior system there.
When his career started up – Goff struggled through the Rams training camp and even into their pre-season. Many were looking at him as a project – and he was going to take quite a bit of time to develop to become NFL ready. When Jared finally took the field for the Rams – he put up some awful numbers. With a 54% passing completion, a pitiful 5.3 YPA, and only moving the ball for a miniscule 156 YPG he wasn’t blowing away anyone on the field. In his 1st campaign, he had a truly disastrous rookie season.
Sometimes it becomes a very real issue with a case of over-hyping some players while others under-hype others. Jared Goff was looked at, as being the next big thing, and Wentz was not looked at with the same condemning eyes, yet after 22 regular season games, Goff has finally seemed to have come around. As Wentz was far ahead of Goff in the key QB categories until 2017,wher Goff played himself as a real pro QB. We often see the rookie explosion player that fans love – but then ends up being nothing more than a flash in the pan for the drafting team during their bummer 3-4 year career. It looks like it may have worked out thus far for LA.
When he was playing at Cal – Goff was constantly under incredible pressure, yet he maintained his poise in the pocket, which is one of the intangibles that QBs undoubtedly need for the position at the NFL level. Jared has also been lucky to have talented teammates who have the ability to make big plays after the catch. He has found himself in the great position to be able to stand and deliver, getting them the ball and letting them make a play. Their head coach has designed the game schemes around his 23 year old QB – and his strengths, which is what any player wants from their coaching staff. He has also molded the Rams powerful offense around what Goff does best. McVay’s excellent play-calling and the talented WRs have made great plays after the catch. With 3 players with 12 or more 20+ yard receiving plays – the Rams have the added benefit of having skilled players on the field, who can move down the field in a blink.
The Rams record surprised everyone going to 11-5 and they lit up the NFL for 29.9ppg, which was 1st in the NFL. When playing vs the division, they were tops with a strong record of 4-2, and helped get them to the playoffs for the first time since 2004. Jared has learned how to stand in the pocket and get his passes controlled far better. Making a slight shift in the pocket is the key for him to be the man for this team for the future. With a good 62% passing pct – he has been great with finding his guys when they are running the field. Putting up a solid 1.87 TD/game to just .47 picks – he has shown his QB ability to burn a defense by reading what they have vs him, and picking it apart.
And with 254 YDs/game – compared to the poor numbers that he had put up in 2016 – Goff has been much better with his pushing the ball ability. He has also been awesome on 3rd down – better than both Ben Roethlisberger and Tom Brady – with 11 TD passes, only 2 picks, and a 65% completion rate. Goff’s strengths have always been excellent play-action and his gentle touch with deep passes. He is a very good rhythm passer and doesn’t get easily deterred when things are collapsing. He didn’t need a complete overhaul, but he required a handful of adjustments just the same. The Rams have a revamped offense, which mixes play action and mimics the big named teams with their downfield looks.
Goff is led his Rams team to 11 wins, and his 254 passing yards per game and his 28 touchdowns ranked him 5th in the NFL. Those kind of numbers, lighting it up with his strong arm and field vision, prompted the Rams to easily hand the reigns to Goff this season. The Rams have a strong running game with Todd Gurley and his vicious running attack – along with a stout and terrifying defense. Which helps minimize what Jared has to be overly concerned about. Goff has incredible promise as far as the Rams organization goes. With a lightening quick release and always able to get the ball out of his hand really quickly – the Rams are here to stay.

​Which NFL team has the best WR tandem in 2017

In Green Bay – when healthy, anyone with eyes and common sense could say Adams & Jordy can easily be called the best when they are on the field. 26 TDs and 2254 YDs between them in 2016 certainly makes a strong case for them to be called the best WR tandem. But, this season, under some extenuating circumstances, they have just an avg of around 48 YD/game between them and only a handful of combined big plays so far, for Green Bay takes them quickly out of the discussion for this season.
In 2016 everyone was all about Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper. A couple of players who have both shown their awesome skills when playing. In 2017 – Crabtree has put up only 601 yards receiving and Cooper is adding just 42 YDs/game. Not great numbers to me. TE Jared Cook is leading the team in receiving yards, 1st downs, and YDs/catch for any player with 25 or more for the team.
What happened? The Oakland OC Todd Downing – messed up the Raiders offense up in a strange way this year. Cooper can play like a man against boys, at times on the field, with his skills and speed. For fans who don’t like Crabtree – will always find a low end flaw – but honestly they are ignoring his skillset. Solid, it is not even close how steady he has been, and you can’t ignore the 30 year old’s career numbers.
How about mentioning DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller? Hopkins is getting 94 YDs/game.  And Fuller is chipping in with 16/YPC. The huge advantage that Hopkins has over many top WRs is really very obvious to me. As we all have seen this WR play with 10+ different QBs in 5 seasons, and continue to put up 1000 YD seasons and produce TDs. One genuinely could argue the case that Hopkins isnt truly one of the top 3 WRs in the league. He is the biggest and the most serious difference maker on a Houston team when it comes to wide receivers. Hopkins always makes his QBs better, and Fuller is that 15+ YPC guy that every team needs.
Philly has a pretty nasty combo in Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor. Yes – it was just 1 year ago, no one cared about Agholor. When he came out of USC, he was watched with very lofty expectations, including by myself. After only 36 receptions and just a pitiful 10.1 YD/catch – along with a huge dropsy problem – it was getting easy to toss him by the wayside thinking he was just yet another WR bust. Not so fast. In 2017 – Agholor has gotten the Eagles a 52 YDs /game, and Jeffery has been nothing but excellent with his nose for the end zone. And if we are being honest – no team has really stopped them. Maybe not the biggest numerical WRs in the game, but they have been unstoppable as a tandem so far. Alshon is one of the strongest WRs in the league, at 6-4 and 230lbs, he seems to find a way to catch the ball at the 10 and can drag it along another 3-4 more yards, with DBs draped on him.
But, Minnesota has some special things going on up North, in Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. They have a few guys who have been nothing but a blessing for OC Pat Shurmur. With 9 games of 90 YDs receiving or more between them, they both have awesome and precise route running and loading up a hefty total average of about 145 YPG – how can it be possible to look passed these deadly Minnesota WRs?
Thielen has been more productive in yards than the high priced Jeffery, and Diggs has been far more productive than big prospect Cooper this season. We are looking about play production. On a back to the wall situation, 3rd and long, :05 seconds left – your going to want Diggs and Thielen getting open for your team. No disrespect to any of the other WRs listed and many other excellent players, but I am going with these 2 based on their ability to split DBs, and find the pockets to get the ball. They are also really good blockers. They are guys that are playing with a QB in Case Keenum who before this 2017 season, was averaging just 6.7 YPA and around 205 YDs passing/game. One could argue he has turned the game around and the game has finally slowed down for him after 6 seasons, yes. But, for the sake of argument, lets also consider the fact that in 2017 – Keenum is throwing for 20 TDs and around 248 YPG, based on his WR threats.
When Diggs is in the game – it allows Adam to get more one on one coverage – which means more opportunity. Thielen is a true student of the game (which is always a great respectful thing to see) and seems to also be very well liked by his teammates. Which says a lot for his personality to go along with the “Great Adam Thielen story”.Thielen has the best hands in the league, in my opinion – and he is an unbelievable route runner and clutch performer.  With 12 games with 5 or more catches and 7 games of 10+ targets this season for the Vikes. As well as Diggs running great routes, which are always crisp and clean. When Diggs came out of Maryland – he was not seen as a genuine WR1 but he has shown with hard work and determination, a player can succeed. No one has been able to really shut down this combination. As they have stacked up a total of 10 games of averaging 15+ YDs/catch between them.
After so many recent years of 2 yard swing passes and running the ball for what seemed like 40 carries/game – Minnesota has something very special going on Diggs and Thielen have arrived, at just 24 and 27 years old, their assault on DBs should stay around for many, many seasons to come, bringing many happy seasons to Minnesota fans. As long as they stay healthy, and the Vikes keep the play calling as good as it has been, these guys are the beast of the NFL.

How Yards Per Point can be utilized in College Football

How Yards Per Point can be utilized to identify Wagering Opportunities

The Yards Per Point (YPP) metric is a valuable tool for sports handicappers and professional bettors. The offensive version of YPP (OYYP) reveals how efficient a team is scoring points. The lower the number the better as it takes fewer yards to score points. Conversely, the defensive measure of YPP (DYPP) reveals how stingy or soft any defensive unit is when facing any type of offense. The more points per point, the stronger the defense. Of course, then we can use the offensive and defensive differential to reveal team rankings and good solid drill-down to team valuation.

As the first chart displayed next reveals, Ohio university has the most efficient offense in the nation scoring one point for every 11.2 yards they have gained. Of course, they are not the best offensive team overall, and I would add a strength of schedule and conference weighting if two teams are playing from disparate conference types.

So if two teams are from the same conference, then there is a presumed equality of SOS implied. Let’s now take a quick look at Penn State versus Ohio State, which is essentially the BIG Ten matchup of the year. Penn State ranks 5th posting an 11.6 OYYP ratio while OSU ranks 12th in DYYP allowing one point for every 19.8 yards allowed. On the other side of the ball, we see that PSU ranks best in DYYP allowing one point for every 29.6 yards allowed and OSU ranks 18th scoring one point for every 12.2 yards gained.

Taking a look at the more important YPP differential we see PSU ranked best with a 18.0 YPP differential and OSU ranked 10th best with a 8.0 YPP differential. The difference in ranking is marginal, but the difference in YPP performance is monumental between these two BIG TEN foes.

Ohio State has been coming on since their horrid loss at home to Oklahoma earlier this season. Over their last three games, they have posted a 15.3 differential reflecting much improved performances on both sides of the ball. Penn State has performed at superior levels for the entire season and are actually getting better on defense. These observations are not being mentioned in the media and by itself offers you a betting advantage for this matchup.

YPP Differential
Rank Team 2017 Last 3 Last 1 Home Away 2016
1 Penn State 18 15.4 8.6 25.2 2.2 2.9
2 Alabama 12.8 5.5 2 12.8 12.6 7.7
3 Washington 11 8 -10.9 8.4 11.9 6.4
4 Notre Dame 10.5 12.8 13.9 9.4 12.1 0.1
5 Marshall 8.8 29.5 17.6 18.8 4.1 -2
6 VA Tech 8.6 6 18.1 5.7 10.5 2.3
7 Central FL 8.5 6.8 4.4 10.2 6.8 2.1
8 Georgia 8.2 4.8 -2 8.6 7.7 -1.8
9 Clemson 7.8 6 3.1 12.7 6.3 3.7
10 Ohio State 7.6 13.3 16.8 2.2 18.2 7.8
11 Iowa 7.4 6.6 -11.3 17.1 -1.3 5.7
12 Wisconsin 7.3 7.2 9 5.5 12.6 5.9
13 TX Christian 7 12.1 — 5 9.8 0.2
14 Stanford 7 8.5 33.9 9.2 5 4.2
15 Auburn 6.9 3.1 4.6 9.5 5.6 6
16 S Carolina 5.9 5.8 6.6 2.2 9 -1.4
17 Iowa State 5.7 11.5 12.9 3.7 8 -0.8
18 Arkansas St 5.1 16.6 77.8 24.9 0.7 3.8
19 S Florida 4.9 6.2 0 9.5 3.1 3.2
20 Miami (FL) 4.6 0.2 3.2 0.5 15.5 4.8
21 Minnesota 4 -0.2 2.5 4.3 3.4 3.6
22 Kansas St 3.4 0.8 3 5 -1.3 4.8
23 Purdue 3.3 -0.1 -24 3.6 2.9 -5.3
24 Fla Atlantic 3.1 5.4 1.9 2.6 3.7 -2.9
25 Wyoming 3 7 -3 6.7 -3.4 1.1

So, based on this brief look at this huge showdown, there is a distinct advantage to Penn State, yet the media and the public are focusing on the facts that OSU is playing at home and has played so much better since the loss to Oklahoma. In my humble opinion, neither of those reasons is valid to make OSU a 7 point home favorite against a team that destroyed a very good Michigan team that does have a strong defensive unit.

Written by John Ryan of VegasTopDogs.

​Top 5 NFL QBs of the 2017 season

We are halfway through the 2017 NFL Football season already. Many of us think we have a pretty good feeling or grasp as to who the top 4-5 or so teams are in the league, at least in each division. And we comfortably all feel that we have seen what the QBs have been able to do what on the field this year. We have our usual suspects, Brady, Rodgers, and Ryan, are always considered top guns in their conferences, but we also have some new and really good players that have more than shown they are ready to lead their teams as well.
Walk along at a calming pace as we take a look through the top 5 QBs in the NFL, playing right now. Be ready, because these guys aren’t always going to be what you immediately thought you would see.
********************************************************
5. Drew Brees
6-0/209lbs
New Orleans Saints
2214 YDs
71.6 completion percentage
13 TDs
4 ints
4.7 TD %
1.5 int %
Brees has had his issues with not a whole lot during this year. The 38 yr old vet is still lighting teams up with leadership and simply put, a massive ability to throw the ball. With a New Orleans Saints team that has had its problems with RBs, Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram have added some life for their QB.
It gives him a bit more time to be able to get to throw the ball. Drew has not been forced to throw the ball as much as he has in the past, at 275 attempts – which is towards the lower portion of his 17 years playing the game. Projecting he ends up throwing 34.3 times/game in 2017.
The Pats, and the Packers have both given up 300+ to Drew. He is a real competitor, as always, fighting the odds for many, many seasons. He has the vision of a 6-5 quarterback with his QB skill set, although, undersized at 6-0 and just over 200 pounds – his crafty arm and smarts keeps the Saints as a threat every game.
********************************************************
4. Russell Wilson
5-11/215 lbs
Seattle Seahawks
2543 YDs
62.7 completion percentage
19 TDs
6 ints
5.7 TD %
1.8 int %
Russell Wilson has led his Seattle team to big W’s over the Rams and Houston this season. Coming into the 2017 season under some question marks for the 6 year QB for Seattle – that they just cant seem to decide what their team game plan is for the 28year old QB from Wisconsin. Wilson has done great things with a team that has just 1 lone WR on the team with any actual skills – and that guy is Doug Baldwin. And let’s not forget the disaster that has been their Oline – that has been falling apart at the seams for years and has been virtually invisible.  He has been the anchor and the heart to a team that wholeheartedly trusts him, under such stressful circumstances,  he has shown throughout, he gets it done when needed to.
He has put together some great games of 452 YDs, 373 YDs and 334. Russell uses his feet well with a great blend of good arm strength and slick playmaking ability, as his 5.7 YPC verifies. The Seattle offense has more than had its share of mishaps and dead ended plays with Eddie Lacy and Thomas Rawls trying to run the ball – Russell Wilson brings a heartbeat to their 10th ranked scoring offense.
He reads the entire football field, and he knows how to get the ball to the closing windows and fires balls into the tight spots that QBs need to get the ball to.
********************************************************
3. Carson Wentz
6-5 / 240lbs
Philadelphia Eagles
2262 YDs
60.5 completion percentage
23 TDs
5 ints
7.9 TD %
1.7 int %
Carson Wentz is a pleasant and welcomed surprise on the list here. He has a passion about him that keeps people watching the games, and his Eagles on the field with awesome scoring ability. Leading his team to a 2nd ranked offense this year – putting up 31.4 /game in 2017.
As Carson has garnished much wonderful comparisons to Big Ben and even Bret Favre – Wentz is a comparable player in regards to some of his skills, but he also is very different in his approach and accuracy. When Wentz played Denver on 11.5.2017 – he tore up the 3rd ranked NFL passing defense for 4 TDs and 7.37 YPA. That secondary carries Bradley Roby and Chris Harris Jr. on their team – lighting them up like he did is no small task for any QB.
He has outstanding improvisation skills when looking to make a play, yet doesn’t get careless, as his play on the fly confirms. As well as his scrambling ability, Carson has a very powerful arm to blast the accurate bullets to the far sideline, when running out of the pocket. He has shown he can make the passes all over the field, throwing the deep pass has never been a problem for him – he can get the velocity to give his WRs the proper time to get to the ball and it gets there on time. Wentz has made good decisions in Philly – and he is very skilled at protecting the football to avoid the badly timed turnovers. Philadelphia is lucky to have their guy in # 11.
********************************************************
2. Tom Brady
6-4 / 225lbs
New England Patriots
2541 YDs
66.7 completion percentage
16 TDs
2 ints
5.2 TD %
0.6 int %
You honestly didn’t think you really were going to get through this list without seeing “Tom Terrific” on here, did you? Until Brady has a clunker season that doesn’t include putting up tons of TDs and amazing numbers, then, and only then, will you not see him listed.
Got it?
The Patriots may not be the over-dominant team that they have been over the last 12 seasons, as they have “only” been 6-2 in 2017. And Tom Brady is nowhere near done as “the man” for that team. And all the haters know it. That is what makes it so tough with this guy. Brady just keeps on keeping on, tearing up teams for 300 passing yards and 2 TDs seemingly every single week.
Having rocked last years SuperBowl contenders, Atlanta and a tough pass defending Chargers team – Tom is still bringing his swagger and amazing abilities to the table. We have almost taken it for granted after so many years of watching it. We all know the resume, working through all of his progressions, calmly reading the field.  He has amazing field vision to look off his primary read and get to his WR2 and WR3 to get everyone involved on his team, including 29 yr old WR Chris Hogan and RB James White who both have had their share of big plays this year. Brady is an amazingly accurate passer from the pocket, with 6 games so far, completing over 68% of his passes in a game. With perfect ball location and accuracy in every pass, he is and always will be, top notch.
********************************************************
1. Alex Smith
6-4/ 220lbs
Kansas City Chiefs
2444 YDs
69.6 completion percentage
18 TDs
1 ints
6.1 TD %
0.3 int %
Who?
Really?
Absolutely, without question. Alex Smith is lethally accurate, taking this Kansas City Chiefs team on his shoulders, and making them a legit contender. Remember, when everyone laughed about Alex Smith?
I do.
And I am willing to bet, Alex Smith does too.
Playing in the AFC West is no easy task for any QB, let alone the guy who is always looked at as being at the bottom of the QBs who are playing the position there. But through it all he has more TDs than Brady. Crushes Wentz in YDs/game comparisons. And blows away Brees in the TD % category. You tell me, what Alex doesn’t have to not be on this top 5 list?
The Pats, Philly, and the Chargers have all fallen prey to the quiet assassin in Kansas City this year. Putting up a great season – with three 300 YD passing games, five games of 2+ TDs, and six games of 7.5 YPA performers, all the while charging his guys down the field.
Not only does Smith throw a really catchable ball – but he is slinging it downfield really well too. His short to intermediate game on the field, has always been great. But, now, he’s unleashing a dangerous deep ball that has brought the Chiefs to another level. His 8.34 YPA is a 13 year high for the former Niners QB.
Alex is always comfortable in the pocket, but he also has a smooth ability to move around to buy some extra time. Which is priceless for any QB. Alex Smith isn’t a “running quarterback” – but he is canny enough to avoid the big sacks and can move around easily, to help his offensive line and receivers when the pocket is falling into him. Smith is also carrying along 4.7 YPC this year, as he has more than shown his quick feet skills.

​Deshaun Watson on pace for the NFL Rookie of the Year

Watson played for Clemson, and was a special guy that many watched in awe as he made big play after big play.
Entertaining Clemson fans – bringing the Tigers to the National Championship, and winning it all, beating the favored Alabama Crimson Tide, 35-31. Deshaun Watson was drafted 12th overall by the Houston Texans in 2017. When picked as the QB for any team – you have the teams and fans pressure on you immediately.  What kind of NFL player will you be? Will you bust, or will you be the next big star for the franchise?
After 6 games, 216 passing YD/gm, 15 passing TDs, and 82.3 QB rating to go with a great skill set, Watson is answering those important and typical questions. During 2017 – the vast majority of analysts and media outlets downplayed the QBs that were coming out in the NFL draft. DeShone Kizer, Mitch Trubisky, and Watson were all looked at as those young guys who would need time and patience.
DeShone Kizer has been terrible for the Browns so far with 3 TDs, 11 picks, and a horrible 47.8 QB rating. Mitch Trubisky hasn’t been great for the Bears either. Only getting 116 YPG, and showing no semblance of pocket presence is nothing for Chicago fans to get too hyped up about. And 10th overall pick, Patrick Mahomes hasn’t needed to see the field for the Chiefs as of yet.
Deshaun has been the quiet surprise that has been really caught many by the jawline and brought smiles for the Texans. Sitting in the entire NFL with 216 passing YD/gm – isn’t too shabby for a 22 year old QB who many thought was going to be another “patience” player to come out this year.  He has shown leadership in the pocket and a calmness around him when things get ugly and fall apart. His running ability makes him that much more dangerous, as he has also picked up huge 1st downs, and has a lethally good 7.2 YPC when taking off, when needing too. And in reality, he has transformed Houston’s offense very quickly.
With a 61.5% completion pct – which is currently better than NFL vets Matthew Stafford, and Philip Rivers- it is easy to see why many Houston fans are feeling pretty good with their 1st rd pick. Watson has already put together a resume of three 3+ TD passing games, three games of 250+ passing YDs, and with his 5 TD explosion vs a playoff contending Chiefs team, he really shined. Eyes opened up in a bigtime hurry about the guy playing QB in Houston.
Having a core WR group of DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller is nice to get when lining up in the backfield, but besides career 4800 YD receiver, Hopkins . And Fuller is really more of just a speed guy – yet Watson is making them both better on the field, as he is kind of building his own story back there. Even TE Ryan Griffin, had numbers in 2016 of just 19 first downs and this season, he has become a legit concern for LBs to contain when they are trying to keep drives going. Watson has Fuller picking up 19.3 YPC – to his 13.5 from last season and already more than doubled his TD output. That speak massive volumes for his innate ability to make others better around him.
The Texans are playing loose football now – because they already own one of the leagues better defense ranking them 7th in the league for total yards. And a 10th league ranking for passing yards allowed at 203/game. Now, with Watson at the helm – they can afford to have some leeway with their play calling, allowing him to throw the ball, as well as try to get 26 year old RB, Lamar Miller more involved in the game. As his experiment in Houston has been nothing short of a huge disappointment, so far. If a team can get production from their QB – it always will open up lanes for the RB. And as well as long as the RB is making teams gather around the line, the QB can have a few seconds to get his passing game moving. It’s a system that we all know.
And of course, with a player like Watson – his dangerous running ability just adds to the threat on the field. I am not a big fan of “running QBs” – I have never said I have been, but when a QB has shown they can pass the ball, from the pocket with real NFL level of accuracy, like he has at 62% – and also bring the dangerous ability to be able to run the ball, if things break down, that is when I appreciate the game of that style of QB.
Steve Young, Randall Cunningham, and even Joe Theismann were all examples of the “QB who can run” – Watson is showing very early in his career, he can be one of those kind of players.
Like the talking heads of other media outlets –  I looked at the 2017 QB draft class and shook my head – thinking they were a class of nobodies. Nothing special was coming out of this QB class. Watson has done nothing but show me and the other “nobodies” just how wrong we may have been.
Deshaun Watson has showing through 6 games so far, that his QB skill set is more than just a glance and run. He can play with the best of the best – Houston better be ready to run with the special player – because he can take them far. He has shown he is best when the game means the most – it has been his calling card in football for his career. Watson is gonna be that guy for Houston.

​Is Carson Wentz ready to be the leader for the Eagles

     The Philadelphia Eagles last season was not one that drew a lot of attention for much of anything but head shakes and sighs. They were in the bottom end in the league in passing TDs, while throwing the ball more than most teams in the league, and ended up at just 7-9 overall. They had another letdown after a miserable 2015 season that gave some Philly fans thoughts that the 2016 season was something to be hopeful for.
They had some issues at the helm going into the season, Chase Daniel and Sam Bradford, both of whom have been released from the team in one way or another. Chase Daniel was nothing more than a middle of the road QB at the best, and completed only short dinkers for the majority of his attempts in his career. And they still hadn’t anyone who passed for more than 20 TDs in a season in Philly since 2013. Yes, things got pretty rough for the QBs in Philly.
When they drafted Carson Wentz at the 2nd overall slot in 2016 draft, they were making their move. They were pushing themselves to get who they feel is going to be the future of the franchise in Philly. He played for a small school in North Dakota, where not much was known about him until pre-draft buzz, when all of the scouts started whispering about the 6-5 QB. So the Eagles rolled the dice and grabbed him. Wentz’s college career was vastly unfamiliar, but apparently he has great elusiveness and pro style skills, which most of us hadn’t seen with our own eyes, but we are watching his skills morph into the NFL now.
This 2017 season is a huge one for Philly. They have a tough schedule; matched up vs rejuvenated Denver, at Seattle, and the up and coming Oakland. Let alone, the NFC East, with a hot rookie Dallas QB Dak Prescott coming back for more, a new, and revamped hungry New York Giants team, and a Washington team that won the division just a short time ago, and wants to prove that, that wasn’t a fluke.
Head Coach Doug Pederson had made it openly clear from the get-go, that Wentz was a project QB. Bradford and Chase Daniel, were both far higher on the depth chart for Philadelphia at the beginning of last season, but how the tides have mightily turned. It will no longer be injuries, an 0-5 start, or QBs who are just not completing passes, it is time to see what he has to offer the team as the leader in Philly.
The crowd in Philly has been waiting like starving lions to have something to get excited about again. They haven’t had a QB to throw for 3800 YDs in 8 years. Wentz brings that promise and hope. Like so many others that come into the league. Fans want to see someone who gives them something to be jacked about, and Carson will be that guy. They have some fresh young talent with newly signed Alshon Jeffrey and deep route WR Torrey Smith, along with last years leading receiver, TE Zach Ertz – now they want someone who can push the ball around on the field with championship confidence.
They figured coming in, he was going to be a few years project, but the hungry fans in Philly are going to have their taste of what he brings – but they need to remain patient, which is always tough for any fans, let alone Philly fans. But give him some time, Philly. In all honesty, Wentz has shown in the time he has had – that he has the heart and the gumption to be a worthy player to lead the Eagles squad. They should to be very happy that they have a guy who wants to prove his worth to the city.
His future is unsure as to what he will end up being, will he be just another Sanchez or Chase Daniel, or end up like Pro Bowler Tony Romo, or Champion Joe Flacco and other smaller school QBs that made it in the league? Only time will tell.