Category: Sports Handicapping Betting Tips

Can I Legally Become a Bookie | Is it Worth it?

Posted in College Basketball, Sports Handicapping Betting TipsTagged , , , , Leave a comment

Let’s not beat around the bush, let’s get right to the point; becoming a bookie is legal and it can be lucrative. The question is this… How do I become a bookie, is it expensive, how do I get the process rolling, what do I do?

First and foremost, let’s tackle the legal issue. The US Supreme court struck down a law that had been in place since the 1990’s, (in a nutshell) the law said this. “Offshore sports gambling was illegal from most of the 50 states.” Now, we all know that millions of folks went ahead and bet on sports and played their favorite online casino with little regard to the law. As a matter of fact, bettors have placed untold billions of dollars’ worth of bets since the early 90’s and even going back to the 80’s. Nobody blinked an eye. Of course, folks would often bet with trepidation and that was simply without merit. The US DOJ never intended to go after gamblers in any way, or for that matter, neither did the individual states.

So, what is the actual state of gambling?

Think about this; have you ever heard of anyone, from any of the 50 states, having been prosecuted for gambling online, from the comforts of their home? Of course, folks have been prosecuted for operating a corner bookie in the local bar. The prosecutorial process will go after folks that were once (famously) running numbers in New York or New Jersey.

Every once in a blue moon, there would be news of a gambling ring bust and they were always underground operations. Just as in the movies, these types of gambling rings would invariably have a secret location, with a secret password and some enormous, scary guy, guarding the place! Look, that’s mostly fantasy. It is, and was indeed, mostly in the movies. Sure, it did happen from time to time and money laundering did go on and still does. Money laundering is absolutely illegal and always will be!

Money Laundering Is Not Gambling!

We know one thing; since the late 1980’s and the early 1990’s, folks have engaged in online gambling and they have not been pursued in any way and they never will be. This is especially the case now that the US Supreme Court has allowed for sports gambling in all 50 states. Do not listen to the Las Vegas “superbooks”! They want you to believe that online gambling is somehow sinister or forbidden and that you can’t possibly talk about it and should you talk about it, it would only be spoken of in hushed tones in dark places. What a bunch of hooey! Stop the insanity. Just don’t listen to this madness.

Why Vegas wants you with them…

  • Money, they want it all and they have been greedy since the 1940’s, even further back then that. Vegas has had their thumb on everybody since the turn of the century and they are afraid of losing what they once had.
  • They want to feed you bad numbers at bad prices. Betting clients will go elsewhere and now, they are going elsewhere. They are flocking to the offshore bookmakers now, more than ever. The reason for this, bad numbers, bad lines and bad odds. Bettors will often have 10 online sportsbooks. Sure, they want the action, but they want the best numbers in the business. If they can get a half point here or a half point there, they will take it every time.

    What is the cost to start an online sportsbook?

    In short, pennies on the dollar. Most of the fantastic Pay Per Head companies offering their services and the better ones, are around $10 per head. If you are looking for a turnkey operation that can be started with no upfront investment and you only spend when your players play, then by all means, look into the pay per head option. A pay per head literally does everything for you. It’s all-inclusive bookie software that acts as your accountant, it grades your bet slips, it keeps track of every dollar won and every dollar lost and exactly what you have taken in and shipped out.

    No matter if you have one playing client or 1,000, you must look into a pay per head. It’s the new way of doing business for bookies that are serious about making real profits and especially for bookies that no longer want to deal with all of the hassle that goes along with being a bookie.

    Now is the time to find an outstanding pay per head service, especially with the onset of baseball. Gamblers love to bet on baseball and they love the best lines and odds. Bookies have been amazed at the difference a pay per head makes.

Super Bowl LIII-Playing the Popular Props

Posted in NFL Football, Sports Handicapping Betting TipsTagged , , , , , 1 Comment

With each Super Bowl comes a level of excitement for the NFL bettor. As fans we want our team to make it to the big dance but unfortunately that doesn’t often happen. Unless of course, you are a Patriots fan! If you happen to be a Patriots fan, then you are one of the lucky ones because this is Tom Brady’s 9th. Count them, 9! That’s a pile of Super Bowls and the even better news for Pats fans is the five wins. Brady has proven himself to arguably be the best quarterback to have ever played this game and he is going for number 6.

 

NFL Team Props – Betting for profit

 

What every fan wants to know is “how to bet”. There are literally dozens and dozens of ways in which to bet this contest and many folks feel as if they need to be a handicapper or have some kind of inside information. Now, let’s be honest, handicapping the game certainly goes a very long ways towards winning and if you are betting blind; that almost never works out. Do yourself a favor and don’t bet blind, come into this affair well-armed.

 

America’s Bookie, you’ll find a sportsbook that has a nice list of props that you can bet on

 

Betting the many props that are available from your online bookie is not only a fun and exciting way to go, it can be a huge money-maker. If you are tired of losing on the spread, money line or totals, then look to the great prop lines this year. Let’s take a look at some of the more popular proposition bets that are available.

 

  • Team to score first—This is a great one and this year the line is set at Patriots -120, now remember, any line can change so be sure to check with your favorite bookie for the latest odds and/or line movement. The Rams are -110. Who does score first? Typically, the Patriots are a slow starting team and they often are trailing at half time. This is certainly something to think about when betting on this prop. No matter who you chose, the one thing for sure, it’s going to make the first few minutes a very worthy watch.

 

  • Time of first score—This is a fun bet that goes hand in hand with the “team to score first”. If you play your cards right, you can kill two birds with one stone and win both bets in one shot. This bet is a yes or no. You will have the option to bet yes, there will be a score within the first five minutes, or no there will not be a score within the first five minutes. Any score counts so make your pick count. Yes +115, No -145.

 

  • First score of the game—How will it be scored? The first score is a TD, -180, any other score, +150. Plus 150 on any other score is a fantastic number and very attainable. There could easily be a field goal or even a safety for that matter.

 

Build Your Online Sportsbook Betting Plan for Super Bowl

 

These are a few of the popular prop bets that will be available for you to bet on. There are dozens and dozens more and you certainly have your pick from team props to player props and special props, such as special teams and defense, even the distance of field goals and the longest touchdown and longest rushing touchdown.

First and foremost, have fun. Make the Super Bowl something besides rooting for one side. That’s nerve racking. Live a little, put yourself in a position to win a stock pile of money. The Super Bowl only comes around once a year, make the most of it with prop bets.

 

NFL SUPER BOWL GAME BREAKDOWN

Posted in Daily Sports Newsletter, NFL Football, Sports Handicapping Betting Tips, VegasTopDogs.com ReportsTagged , , , , Leave a comment

The Super Bowl is on its way, along with all the hype and analysis
that comes with it. We get the New England Patriots, who are in their
4th Super Bowl in the last 7 years, vs the LA Rams, the team that has
gone through 13 losing seasons since 2004, but now have a new winning
and confident culture led by 33 year old Head Coach, Sean McVay.

New England has shown faith and resiliency with their aging QB, yet
again. The Rams are the hot young team with a flashy Head Coach, and
their young QB. What we are going to do, is a breakdown of each team
with their best attributes and possible weaknesses. To take a good
look at what they bring to the game, and who has the potential upper
hand in this seasons finale.

New England Patriots / 11-5
HEAD COACH: Bill Belichick
PPG / NFL RANK: 27.3 / 4th
OPPG / NFL RANK: 20.3 / 7th

PROS:
They have the man who fights all comers and wins, they have a player
who just keeps churning out W’s and still keeps putting up 4000 YDs
and 30TDs / year in Brady. Any team with Tom Brady on their roster has
a better chance to win than most.

New England has been in 16 postseasons over the last 18 seasons, this
is their 4th big game in the last 7 seasons. Regardless of if you like
them, hate them, or feel complete apathy towards them, this is still
their league, until they are buried for one and for all. At least
until Tom Brady retires, will the rest of the league feels like they
are the team to beat.

CONS:
Away from their home, the Patriots have not been great. With a 3-5
record and putting up just 21ppg, 6 below their average, and giving up
24ppg, 4 more than average. Although this game wouldn’t be considered
an away game, no more than away for both teams, and New England likely
have a larger fanbase than the Rams – but they still aren’t in in
their own stadium.

The run defense of New England is a very real problem. This season
having given up 4.9 YPC, and 6 games of 130 or more on the ground to
opponents, and the Rams certainly have a brutal running attack with
Gurley and Anderson running the rock. Which makes strength vs weakness
a classic and intriguing story to watch here.

XFACTOR:
James White and his sneaky ability to run for key yards and be able to
move the ball with surprising ease is going to be key. White is a guy
with great ability to get into open pockets and a smooth ability to
make big plays vs defenses, and Belichick loves to use him when teams
are on the backpedal. When White has 5 or more carries the Pats are
10-0.

========================================

Los Angeles Rams / 13-3
HEAD COACH: Sean McVay
PPG / NFL RANK: 32.9 / 2nd
OPPG / NFL RANK: 24.0 / 20th

PROS:
The balance between passing and running the ball is a distinct
advantage Los Angeles has here. With 2 WRs with 1200+ yard receiving
years, an aerial attack with a QB who can light it up for 300 in a
flash, along with a running game that ranked 2nd in the league with 23
TDs on the ground and had over 2200 YDs on the ground.

The brutal RB tandem of Todd Gurley and 230lb RB, C.J. Anderson is
awesome. Gurley is a really special back, who has produced double
digit TDs on the ground for 3 of the last 4 seasons, and had a total
of 1831 yards, including 580 in the air. Anderson has been a fantastic
find for Los Angeles – Anderson brings the punishment factor, that can
beat on or run through a weakened and tired Dline.

Aaron Donald and his relentlessness is coming, beware New England. The
27 year old DT brings a pass rush that the Pats will struggle to stop,
he is a game changer, and is a huge problem to deal with for any team,
and will be here vs the Pats. Bringing his league leading 20.5 sacks –
he will be awfully tough to control at the line.

CONS:
The Rams team with big named DBs, Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib lack a
great passing defense. Giving up 31 TDs in the air this year they have
shown a lack of discipline when defending WRs. Which if you are a Pats
fan, you are ecstatic to have Julian Edelman and Brady clicking the
way they have been over the last 2 games. 16 catches, 247 YDs, and
15.4 YPC is going to be awfully hard for the Rams DBs to handle.

Sean McVay and his 24 year old QB, Jared Goff, can get pass heavy at
times. With 5 games where he threw 40 or more times, and 6 games of
running for less than 95 yards, they are not true to form and lack the
punch when they don’t move the ball on the ground. When they fall into
basing their offensive game scheme behind Goff and throwing the ball –
they are 2-3, the Rams and Goff need to run the ball. Gurley is still
the heart and soul of this team, and will be key here in this huge
matchup.

XFACTOR:
How the Rams and Wade Phillips defend the run game is going to be
enormously important. When they give up 110 or less on the ground,
they are 11-0, if they keep the running game of the Pats to those kind
of numbers or less, lock this in, the Los Angeles Rams will roll. But
if the Pats start dictating the pace and the Oline here with White and
Sony Michel, the Pats will likely be holding the trophy at the end.

CLEMSON VS ALABAMA AND PROPS: THE WAY TO WIN

Posted in College Football, Daily Sports Newsletter, Sports Handicapping Betting Tips, VegasTopDogs.com ReportsTagged , , , Leave a comment

 

This 2018-19 NCAA College Football season has been a long one, but a very good one indeed. It was exactly what every fan had hoped for and much more. From a gambling perspective it was even better. This was the year to make a lot of money. The big named programs covered week in and week out, many of the mid-tier programs were better than ever and surprised a lot of people. Overall, it was a great year to bet on college football.

 

Clemson Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Preview and Predictions

 

The good news, there is still time to win money! The season may be over but there is one last shot to rake it in and big. This championship game on Monday night is going to be one of the best that college fans have ever witnessed. It matters not if you hate Alabama, hate Clemson, hate the ACC or hate the SEC. What matters is making money. Who cares what teams are playing? What matters is who can win this thing and who has the better chance to win the team props. There are some really good ones, so be sure to ask your bookmaker about them and where to find them. Betting the props in this game is a much better way to go this year than betting sides or totals. Call your online bookie and ask.  

 

Online Sportsbooks Remain the ‘Best Bet’ for US Players

 

Here we are, the last hurrah, the final chapter that closes the book on the season. The Clemson Tigers come in with a 14-0 record and the Alabama Crimson tide come in with a 14-0 record. We all know that Nick Saban has done everything. This guy is 146-20 since 2007 as head coach of the Tide and has count them—Five national titles and this would be number six at Alabama, since taking over in 07.

 

Offshore Sportsbooks vs. Sports Betting in the US

 

Clemson is the only team to have beaten Alabama in a title game since Saban took over. Dabo Swinney is the second best coach in all of college football and his record proves it. He will have his team ready to play ball and this game will go to the last minute, right down to the wire and will be ever so close.

 

Props to look for:

 

  1. Alternative point spreads— this is a fun way to play a football game and especially fun if you have a particular rooting interest. It can certainly be a way to make some nice cash but also a way to further your chances of actually winning something. An alternative line shaves point off the favorite and adds points to the underdog. In a game like this one, an alternative spread can turn out extremely valuable. As you take or give points the price goes up, but you are certainly giving yourself a much better shot at winning the game. What would you rather play, Clemson + 5.5 or Clemson + .5? Maybe you like Alabama at -5.5, what would you rather play, -5.5 or -.5? On down the line Alternative spreads go. We have given you an example but again, check with your favorite online bookie.

 

  1. Winning Margin— another fun prop, that lets you bet the amount you think one team can win by, over another.

 

  1. Race to points— which team hits a certain number first? A big money maker if you play your cards right.

 

  1. Team to score first, total touchdowns by one team or the other team, first score method how many field goals, highest scoring quarter, total sacks, game to go overtime…. And many more.

 

Have fun with this game and bet the props. Dial up your bookie and find what props you like and know that this is the way in this game. Who knows who wins this thing… it’s going to be close. Betting the props is the best way to approach this years NCAA National CFB Championship Game.

 

Can the Chicago Bears defense carry them to the championship

Posted in NFL Football, Sports Handicapping Betting TipsTagged , , Leave a comment

With how good the Chicago defense has been this season, what can we
expect from the Bears in the playoffs?

This team has great play-makers at every level of the defense. The
Chicago D is currently rated 3rd in points allowed, 2nd in yards
gained/pass attempt, 1st in passing ints, with 27 pilfers at the time
of this article, 1st in rushing TDs allowed with just 5 on the ground,
and are playing with a defensive 3rd down conversion percentage of 35%
– there is no team that lines up vs the Bears and is thrilled. In 8
regular season games, the Bears have given up just an average of 17.5
points/game at home and only 19 ppg on the road. If the Bears are to
make a big-time run in the playoffs – opposing teams might be fortunate
to reach those numbers, their smothering defense is something that
travels well, and a lot of fun to watch. They have been so successful
by keeping everything in front of them, and not allowing many big
plays. They give some really difficult looks, and some exceptional
blitzes, where they have forced bad throws and created havoc.

Pro Bowler DB, Kyle Fuller and 27 year old Khalil Mack get the bears
share of the attention, and deservedly so. But there’s even more to
that nasty Chicago defense than that. 340lb Akiem Hicks has gone from
just a pass rushing specialist to complete player, and the 7 year vet
has absorbed his role as more of a DT, as a run stopper, QB crusher,
and disruptor, and has made huge plays over the 2018 season. Roquan
Smith or Mack typically stuff any screen on the right side, and Hicks
shuts it down on the left side. And if a back gets around him, they’ve
got Danny Trevathan or Leonard Floyd waiting to greet them 3 yards
out. Mack epitomizes the term “collision sport” with 12.5 sacks and 18
QB hits – he has been the centerpiece for the top ended ranked D all
season.

The Monsters of the Midway have a very stout, and also very fast D
line. It’s a tough situation for any team to deal with only 4 games
giving up 100 or more running yards. So they force you to throw the
ball, where they stalk the field like starving wolves with 2 guys with
6 or more picks. Fuller is the magical “shutdown” corner, and QBs
struggle oftentimes to get a pass get completed against him. Same goes
for the active handed Eddie Jackson and Prince Amukamara. The deadly
CBs are playing on the receiver’s hip, especially Fuller. QB’s
obviously hate dealing with that mess – so they then try throwing deep
on them, but the problem with that game-plan has been that Jackson
doesn’t get fooled much – and he isn’t all that grabby, either. Which
doesn’t leave a whole bunch of options for down field passing, so
teams need to throw the short routes and screens

Chicago have been playing the “team defense” of containing the QB and
stopping the run brilliantly . Creating turnovers like they do, is a
huge game changer for Chicago – if they keep it up and get into the
playoffs. If the Chicago defense keeps forcing turnovers, they way
they have been during the postseason – then that makes anyone they
play, play disorganized. They know they simply cannot make mistakes.
As this defense is set up to crush teams up both in the passing and
rush game.

The Bears defense plays with a genuine level of grit I haven’t seen in
a team in quite awhile. They don’t fold, the defense tightens up when
it matters, as shown when they played the Rams, who were shaking up
the NFL with a 32ppg scoring avg – but then they held Todd Gurley to a
measly 28 yards on the ground, picked off highly rated, Jared Goff 4
times, and beat the explosive Rams,15-6. The interesting thing to me
is, though a great defense should be able to allow the offense to take
more chances, knowing the defense can cover for them, if there is a
bad play. Chicago Head Coach, Matt Nagy, needs to open up the offense
a bit more, as the Bears defense plays even better with the lead.

But, for the Chicago to win the championship – their running offense
is going to have to put up some better numbers to keep the team on the
field longer, and their RB1, Jordan Howard getting just 3.6/carry.
They cannot just keep picking up 1 yard lunges and always hope that
their defense will shut down their opponent.

If they can keep teams off the field, with 22 or less 1st downs – they
stand a very good chance of winning, if not, it could be tough, when
they give up 23 or more they have been 2-3. They don’t want to tire
out their D, just let it do what it does, get the RBs more work on the
outside, and let Mitchell Trubisky sling the ball down the field more,
let him get Allen Robinson more involved down the field.

College Football Bowl Action

Posted in College Football, Daily Sports Newsletter, Sports Handicapping Betting TipsTagged , , , , , , Leave a comment

The College Football Bowl games kickoff on Saturday with 5 Bowl matchups and our Expert Handicappers are ready

to roll at VegasTopDogs.

We have a lot of handicappers who sell picks on our site. Sometimes it can be tough to filter through everyone and make a decision on which expert has the best chance to make you money.  With the College Football Bowl games starting this Saturday we will break down some of the top experts from the College Football Season.  Other handicappers, well they specialize in types of bets. Some may be good at everything, others are better at totals than point spreads or vice versa.

Consider this article your private cheat sheet to higher profits this year and view all rankings in all sports here: VegasTopDogs Money Leaders

With the regular-season in the books, it’s time to focus our attention to the top handicappers to follow for bowl season.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL:

 

A.J. PENNY:

If you are looking for one of our top bowl experts, A.J. Penny and his 58-33 college football record this season would be at the top of the list for most.  Hitting (64%) this year he is primed and ready on all bowl picks, which has netted his $100 players over $27,000 in profits. Don’t miss out on any bowl picks for 2018-19. Get signed up for a premium long-term subscription today for just $350.

 

Tony K:

No surprise to see TonyK and 3G-Sports as one of the top cappers to follow during bowl season. Tony is one of our top long-term earners on the college gridiron going 55-33 in college football this year and bring in over 14K for his $100 players. Be sure to grab his College Football Bowl Bonanza package now as he historically does extrmemly well during this time of the year.  Now is the perfect time to find a subscription that works best for you. Click here to view his packages!

 

Doug Upstone:

Doug Upstone has been at or near the top of the NCAAF leaderboard for most of the 2018 season. He is currently ranked No. 3, posting a 60% win rate during the regular season. There’s a good chance he will stay hot, as Doug has hit 61% (88-56) of all his bowl plays going back to 2014. If you are struggling to pick winners on your own, I encourage you to give Doug Upstone a try!

 

Ray Monohan

Here’s another guy that consistently shows to have an edge over the books in the College Football. He’s  delivered $93,000 in profits for his dime players this week.  A big chunk of those profits have come after the first month of the season. Ray has been hot across all leagues the past 30 days.  Find out what premium packages Ray has to offer and start winning more of your bets. Check out his premium plays here!

 

Which player coming back from injury will have the biggest impact

Posted in NFL Football, Sports Handicapping Betting TipsTagged , , , , Leave a comment
It only takes one wrong twist to derail a special or budding career, and in the NFL we see it happen far more often than anyone would ever want to see. And, unfortunately, as always, we see great players get taken off on stretchers or limping off to the sidelines, and teams championship hopes get smashed against the rocks, when their stars go down. We will examine and look over the players who were lost and had their season cut short due to injuries and some really bad luck. Which players will bounce back with the best scope – for the team situation they are going to be in.
Minnesota was knocked off track when Dalvin Cook went down in game 4. The RB from Florida State was on his way to running for glory for Minnesota – then hearts dropped and faces went numb when he didn’t get up off the field. Field vision and speed can be hard to replace, Jerick McKinnon and Latavius Murray tried to do their best to make up for his awesome presence, but they ended up being adequate with a 3.9 YPC between them, and Case Keenum and the passing game became their offensive identity. Cook was going to be the guy to sustain the teams hopes during the 2017 regular season. He was drafted for a reason, which was to become the RB for a team that had a running mentality for the last 10 years. Cook had 4.8 YDs/carry avg and had 4 runs of 20+ yards and even threw in 3 receptions/game for good measure in his limited time on the field.
On Indianapolis, Andrew Luck was lost for the whole season with a shoulder injury, but, if there was a player to believe in, it would be the dedicated QB named Andrew Luck. Luck will be returning to a struggling team in Indy with some good offensive receivers set in place.
Do you think other teams worry about them getting Luck back on the field? You better believe they do, getting him back will be huge to this team, the Colts QBs only had 2 games throwing for 300 or more YDs in 2017. Luck has been a revolutionary QB, and with five 300+ games in his last season played in 2016 – his absence was more than just a hiccup for the Colts, as their team went from a usually competitive team over the prior years, to just 4-12 in 2017.
Green Bay losing Aaron Rodgers was a little different as he was taken out vs a rival team in Minnesota. The tackle heard round the world (which was a legal hit, by the way). Green Bay was not able to win games and really even show up, oftentimes vs teams in the division, without him. Rodgers brings the Packers that leadership that was greatly missed – Green Bay will welcome back their beloved pro bowler.
Brett Hundley was asked to do a bit too much at QB (which meant play QB) for the Pack with 12 picks and just 9 TDs – with Rodgers back they see again, why he means so much to this team. Opposing teams tested Hundley time and time again because of his bad decision making and lack of skills, which were proven with his season. Rodgers return – changes the landscape.
Philly felt sheer terror in their hearts when Carson Wentz was lost due to torn ACL. Nick Foles then stepped in and brought grit and great play to the Eagles when Wentz was down for the count. He played huge, with 5 TDs in 7 regular season games, and a 73% passing completion and 6 TDs in the playoffs, as the Eagles ended up as Champions in 2017. Wentz does so much for Philly in terms of playing QB but also in leadership – Wentz is a critical part of what the Eagles expect to have built for their future.
Dalvin Cook  has the talent and the team around him to have great success with great teammates, I expect a 100% comeback from the RB from FSU. He will return to his normal 19 carries/game workload when the season gets plugging along, Cook was on his way to a breakout rookie year, and will stay on track. He’s got great hips in his ability to swing out of breaks and awesome speed. With that he brings another huge level as a scoring threat to Minny, as he is a proven weapon in the open field.
Dalvin Cook should only continue to get better, and he’s got a huge ceiling, with Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs, and Kyle Rudolph catching balls, and now with Kirk Cousins tossing the ball around. He is going to a team that was 13-3 last season, this team should be just as good, if not even better. With Dalvin Cook you know what you’re getting, he has confidence in his ability, and so do I. If he returns to his outstanding form when he was tallying 23 YDs receiving and 89 YDs/game – he’ll be in the conversation to be the best RB in the league.
In the end nothing but wishing healthy and successful future for every one of these athletes in the NFL – come back stronger than ever.
Regardless of what eventually happens, or what player makes the difficult trek back to the land of the NFL and stardom, any player coming back from a devastating injury deserves respect and a round of applause.

Betting the NFL Preseason in 2018

Posted in NFL Football, Sports Handicapping Betting TipsTagged , , , , , Leave a comment

Betting the NFL Preseason in 2018

by Jeff Hochman (JH-Sportsline)

The Hall of Fame Game is the first NFL preseason game of the year, which closes the annual Hall of Fame enshrinement festivities. On August 2nd, 2018, the Baltimore Ravens and Chicago Bears will kick-off the preseason at Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium in Canton, Ohio. The game starts at 8:00 PM E and can be viewed on NBC. The Ravens will be making their first Hall of Fame game appearance ever, while the Chicago Bears have played in this game five times. Chicago is a perfect 4-0 SU in their previous four Hall of Fame game appearances.

You will hear people say “Don’t bet on NFL Preseason Football”. Big Mistake! It’s actually easier than capping the regular season. In most cases you can read ahead of time the exact game plan for each team. I feel the NFL preseason is a great opportunity to start and build a nice bankroll for the upcoming regular season. Many handicappers have the opinion that the preseason games should be left alone and not bet on. I feel just the opposite. If you do your homework–the preseason offers sharps and squares a tremendous chance to make a lot of money. Here are my personal keys, stats, systems, angles, reasons, and teams to consider when betting NFL Preseason football in 2018. I started in 1998. This is my 14th edition of this annual NFL article. WOW! Time sure does fly when you’re having fun. Enjoy!

1) Depth

 

This one is obvious. Jo public gets so worked up about the starters and skill position players on certain teams during the regular season. But they’re the same in the preseason. Teams that can go two-and three-deep (sometimes four-deep) at the skill positions have a decided advantage over a club that has a few stars that will be sitting after the first or second series. A perfect example of a team like that this season, is none other than the Green Bay Packers. They have the best arm talent in the league and future Hall of Famer in Aaron Rodgers. Brett Hundley showed flashes in extending playing time. He’s ahead of schedule. DeShone Kizer fits their offense well and should play a lot this preseason. Tim Boyle is a big kid from Eastern Kentucky who should have success going against third and fourth-string defenses. On the flip side, The New York Giants have Eli Manning who is on the back nine of his career. Davis Webb, Kyle Lauletta, and Alex Taney are unproven at this level. While I think the Giants will be improved this season, they could struggle in August with this current QB rotation.

Quarterbacks and continuity are key. NFL Preseason wagers, just like those during the Regular Season, often come down to the last eight minutes of a game. So find teams that have solid depth at QB and/or has some experience or success in the league. They’ll have a tremendous advantage in the closing moments of a game against a third and/or fourth-string defense. The New Orleans Saints have a 4-headed monster under center. Drew Brees is a top 10 all-time QB. Tom Savage is above average as the second guy. J.T. Barrett will be a handful with his arm and legs against young defenders. Taysom Hill completed 14 of his 20 attempts with two passing TD’s and one running TD for the Packers last preseason. All four can run the same offense without restrictions. The system/culture has been in place since 2006. I think the Saints will have a winning preseason in 2018.

 

2) Experience

 

I don’t necessarily mean which team has the most grizzled veterans on it. In fact, experience can be a detriment. Most older players hate preseason games. And teams that have established players in certain positions or roles will often see those guys mail it in during the preseason because they know the games are “meaningless” and already have their “jobs” locked up.

However, experience is a key factor when it comes to handicapping coaches/systems. Organizations that haven’t experienced much turnaround have a significant advantage over those that are easing in a new brain trust. For example, New England has been running Josh McDaniels system since 2012. The Patriots are going to be much sharper than a team that is going through changes. Take the Indianapolis Colts for example. They are breaking in a new head coach (Frank Reich) and new offensive coordinator in Nick Sirianni. Both guys have never been in their current roles. Keying on clubs that have familiarity & continuity, and finding teams that are much less comfortable with their new system is a big key when wagering on preseason games.

 

3) First-Year Head Coaches with new team (Full Season)

 

We have seven for the 2018-19 season in alphabetical order by team. First year head coaches can be tricky, but generally perform very well in their first August home game.They went 6-1 ATS in their first home game three years ago, 5-2 ATS two years ago, and 4-1 ATS last season. That adds up to a a bankrolling 15-4 ATS mark the last three preseasons combined! Lets keep it rolling. A lot of expectations are put on these guys coming in. They all want to show the Owner, General Manager, players, and fans that he is the right man for the job. Setting the tone early means playing to win in the preseason. I would not just blindly play all these teams in their first home game. Pick your spots or sign up for my NFL Preseason package. Here we go!

Steve Wilks (Arizona Cardinals)

Matt Nagy (Chicago Bears)

Matt Patricia (Detroit Lions)

Frank Reich (Indy Colts)

Pat Shurmer (NY Giants)

Jon Gruden (Oakland Raiders)

Mike Vrabel (Tennessee Titans)

4) Competition/Philosophy

 

If you know how head coaches were raised and what their philosophies are than you will have a big advantage this August. I know all the personalities/traits of every single HC in the NFL which helps me beat the books in August. I will give you one HC that preaches competition from his players down to the ball boy. That would be Pete Carroll of the Seahawks. His philosophy at USC was to create competition along with a winning attitude. That has continued since moving to the NFL. Pete Carroll is 34-14 ATS in his career when playing in August, including 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS last season. On the flip side, Jason Garrett of the Dallas Cowboys clearly hates the preseason. He uses August basically to scout his younger guys and it shows. Garrett’s 10-20 ATS record in the NFL preseason is the worst active record in August with at least 20 games played. Keep an eye on the Seahawks‘ spreads as the odds makers might inflate their lines after going 4-0 last preseason.

 

5) Motivation

If you watched the NFL for any number of years you should know that not every Head Coach cares about winning in the NFL Preseason. Different HC’s have different agendas when playing August Football and they all pretty much stick to their beliefs. I gave you two very good examples above that should hold true once again this upcoming season.

Each coach handles the preseason differently. Some put a premium on the second game. For some it’s the third or even the fourth. Some coaches just mess around and tinker with their lineups during the preseason and use it to evaluate their younger guys. But here’s the key – and this is a big difference between the regular season and preseason football – most coaches are forthright about what the game plan will be. All you have to do is a little research from the local beat writers.

 

6) Scheduling

 

The NFL preseason schedule generally isn’t too taxing on the teams and players. But there are quirks. The two teams that play the Hall of Fame Game are a good bet to fade in their next game. If some key players are a bit banged up then you can expect those guys to be watching in street clothes. Keep a close eye on how the players from the Ravens and Bears come out of the Hall of Fame game. Also, NFL teams who play on the West Coast (with little to no humidity), and than travel to play a high humidity East Coast game. It would be wise to fade those West Coast teams, especially if installed as a favorite. This has worked extremely well over the last few years with the new OTA rules in place.

#7) Jeff’s NFL Preseason system to consider

If you are looking for a very solid system/angle in the NFL preseason here is one to consider this year. Teams that begin 0-2 straight up over the last 11 years are 63-41 ATS in their very next game. Head Coaches, GM’s, and owners tend to get very nervous when they get off to a bad start, even in the preseason, and they have their team ready for that third game. Most undefeated teams will take that 0-2 team lightly, thus making those winless teams a smart play by the “Wise Guys”. If two 0-2 teams are playing each other, its a NO PLAY and that’s reflected in the record above.

#8) Jeff’s #1 NFL Preseason Team to “Play On” in 2018

Cleveland Browns. I think this team will play with a “chip” on its shoulder after going 0-16 last year. Look at the QB rotation. It’s got to be one of the most improved groups in the entire league. Tyrod Taylor is a two-way (arm/legs) threat with playoff experience. Drew Stanton is better than average. Baker Mayfield has something to prove and should have success against vanilla defenses. Joel Stave is really good and might be elsewhere as as solid backup when the regular season arrives. New offensive coordinator Todd Haley will bring fire and experience to the offense. And while the Browns might be learning a new offense, there are mitigating factors that suggest the Browns will have success this August. I love them in week two against the Buffalo Bills as a 3-point home favorite. The Browns could be a solid ATS sleeper team this Fall/Winter as well.

Look for more Football articles in the coming weeks. Jeff was ranked No. 3 in the 2017-18 NFL regular season and No. 1 (tied) in the postseason. Jeff was ranked No. 2 in the 2014-15 NFL regular season at The Sports Monitor of OK, cashing just under 70%. Jeff has shown a profit in eight of the past nine years in football, fully documented. Early Bird Football and season packages are now available.

Good Luck this Football Season!

Follow me on Twitter @jhsportsline

Scherzer Well on Way to Cy Young: Who’s a Good Bet?

Posted in MLB Baseball, Sports Handicapping Betting Tips, VegasTopDogs.com ReportsTagged , , , , Leave a comment

What Max Scherzer is doing is just well classic Max Scherzer. This guy is off the baseball hook right now and it seems that nobody can stop him. The bookies keep the juice flowing on this kind of pitching consistency and the only way to beat the man is by doing just that; laying the juice. It’s tough to lay -220 but it is what it is. Sooner or later he will lose a game and the juice will come back down to earth for the next game.

 

The Nationals are coming off of a tough road weekend in Atlanta where they dropped three of four games and are now trailing the Braves in the NL East by 1.5 games. Unbelievably, the only win in Atlanta came on Saturday in extra innings when Scherzer hit the game winning single in the 14th. Scherzer’s last outing was a dandy with 12 strikeouts in 8 scoreless over Baltimore to record his 150th career win.

 

10 Star Picks – Basketball Betting – Bettors Looking for Angle NBA Finals

 

The Nationals are not a team to be betting on right now, as a matter of fact, they might be a good team to bet against! Scherzer is whom one should think of betting on. He is simply lights out and he gets wins. How long can it continue? As long as he stays healthy. Could we see a 25 game winner this year in baseball? Yes, and if anybody has the chance to do it, it’s Max Scherzer.

 

VTG – MLB Baseball – Mariners Becoming a Good Bet?

 

Run Lines: Should you bet them?

 

Yes, yes, and yes, you should absolutely bet them and especially Max Scherzer, he gets run supports. Check out the stats…

Max Scherzer’s 9 wins:

 

March 30th @ Cincinnati 2-0

April 9th vs. Atlanta 2-0

April 14th vs. Colorado 6-2

April 20th @ LA Dodgers 5-2

April 25th @ San Francisco 15-2

May 1st vs. Pittsburgh 12-4

May 7th @ San Diego 8-5

May 11th @ Arizona 3-1

May 25th @ Miami 9-5

May 30th @ Baltimore 2-0

 

As you can see from all nine of Scherzer’s wins, he gets run support. He has covered the run line in every game with exception of his one loss on April 4th to Atlanta, 7-1. This guy is close to being a run line– covering juggernaut. When he takes the mound, the Nationals show up to play ball and the not only hit, they play defense. Seven out of Scherzer’s nine wins have come by way of the road. This guy is fearless and will go after anyone on any day in any ball park. He is intimidated by nobody.

 

10 Star Picks – Warriors Take Commanding Lead,  Where Do the Cav’s Go from Here?

 

Here is the good news, on Tuesday night, the sportsbooks have the runline set at -120. Now the numbers tell you that this is a bargain. Could he have an off night, of course, it’s not likely but it could happen?  All pitchers have an off night every now and then. Scherzer won’t win every game he starts but he will win a pile of them. Only four of the nine wins listed above, were won by 2 runs or less. The rest of the games were won by 4, 3, 13, 8, 3, and 4. These are the kinds of numbers that sharp players look for.

 

Betting Baseball: Four Rules for Success

If you find yourself frustrated with high priced money lines (and who doesn’t) it pays to do your homework when it comes to runline betting. You can save a lot of money and make a lot of money. Sure Scherzer could lose, there is no guarantee and this is exactly why they call it a gamble. But you can bet the farm that Scherzer will get right back on the horse and continue winning. He’s a great play on the moneyline wager.  

Cavaliers vs. Celtics – It’s a long Series!

Posted in NBA Basketball, Sports Handicapping Betting TipsTagged , , , , Leave a comment

LeBron James is LeBron James and there is very little more that can be said about his play in this year’s playoffs and his career as a whole. The man is going for his eighth consecutive NBA Finals appearance and that on its face is a remarkable accomplishment. Of course the argument can be made about the “watered down, Eastern Conference, the “lack of talent” the “mediocre play” and on and on it goes. Maybe these arguments have merit, who knows and honestly, who cares? Lebron is the best player in the NBA at this time and where he fits on the “all-time greatest” list, remains to be seen. He may not be better than Mike right now but let’s face it, he’s giving Mike a run for his money.

 

America’s Bookie – Offshore Sportsbooks vs. Sports Betting in the US

 

Having said all of that… LeBron took a beat down on Sunday at the hands of the Boston Celtics and it wasn’t a gentle beating, it was a boxing match and LeBron forgot to bring his gloves! Where was he? He forgot to show up. Can LeBron make us all look stupid on Tuesday night in game two? Absolutely he can and he just might, however, he must get serious, this Celtics team is not the Celtics team of a few years ago or even last season. This team is for real and they showed their toughness against the Philadelphia 76ers.

 

The bookies are adjusting their numbers as we speak, a final score of 108-83 is not what anybody had predicted and certainly not what bookmakers from Vegas or what the offshore guys were thinking. We all knew the Celtics were good and we all know they have found their niche and its defense, but who knew that they were this good? Are they really this good, or was this a one game fluke and game two will tell a completely different story?

 

Surprisingly, the Celtics and the Cav’s only faced each other three times in the regular season and Cleveland won two of the three. The regular season is so entirely different than the postseason that it’s nearly impossible to take anything away from the meetings. What we have now is what we saw in the previous playoff matchups in rounds one and two.

 

Betting Basketball the Best Moneymaking Moves

 

The Cavaliers have a great response record; when they get down, they get back up and they usually do it in a big way. However, it is safe to say that nobody expected the Celtics to pound the Cav’s by 25 points. This was an embarrassing loss and it was doubly embarrassing to LeBron James. 15 points is weak, James didn’t show up for this game and he let his team down. Don’t count on this to happen twice!

 

10 Star – Warriors looking Like Same Old Warriors – Fearless Unbeatable

 

Follow the numbers, follow the lines and odds. This one is interesting for sure. The more interesting number is the series itself. There are 6 possible games left and you can bet that LeBron won’t be absent again. But don’t think for one second that the Celtics are intimidated, they most certainly are not and they will be prepared for a firestorm from the Cavaliers and LeBron James.

 

Brad Stevens may be the most prepared coach in this postseason. He plays the x’s and o’s to perfection and he gets the most out of his grinders. He will be prepared but not over prepared for Lebron. Stevens is too smart to over adjust to LeBron James.

 

The Celtics most likely come away with a game two win, it will be close and could be a dogfight to the finish but it probably goes the way of the cloverleaf. This will be a big hole for LeBron to crawl out of but if there is anybody that can find a way, it will be LeBron.