How Yards Per Point can be utilized to identify Wagering Opportunities

The Yards Per Point (YPP) metric is a valuable tool for sports handicappers and professional bettors. The offensive version of YPP (OYYP) reveals how efficient a team is scoring points. The lower the number the better as it takes fewer yards to score points. Conversely, the defensive measure of YPP (DYPP) reveals how stingy or soft any defensive unit is when facing any type of offense. The more points per point, the stronger the defense. Of course, then we can use the offensive and defensive differential to reveal team rankings and good solid drill-down to team valuation.

As the first chart displayed next reveals, Ohio university has the most efficient offense in the nation scoring one point for every 11.2 yards they have gained. Of course, they are not the best offensive team overall, and I would add a strength of schedule and conference weighting if two teams are playing from disparate conference types.

So if two teams are from the same conference, then there is a presumed equality of SOS implied. Let’s now take a quick look at Penn State versus Ohio State, which is essentially the BIG Ten matchup of the year. Penn State ranks 5th posting an 11.6 OYYP ratio while OSU ranks 12th in DYYP allowing one point for every 19.8 yards allowed. On the other side of the ball, we see that PSU ranks best in DYYP allowing one point for every 29.6 yards allowed and OSU ranks 18th scoring one point for every 12.2 yards gained.

Taking a look at the more important YPP differential we see PSU ranked best with a 18.0 YPP differential and OSU ranked 10th best with a 8.0 YPP differential. The difference in ranking is marginal, but the difference in YPP performance is monumental between these two BIG TEN foes.

Ohio State has been coming on since their horrid loss at home to Oklahoma earlier this season. Over their last three games, they have posted a 15.3 differential reflecting much improved performances on both sides of the ball. Penn State has performed at superior levels for the entire season and are actually getting better on defense. These observations are not being mentioned in the media and by itself offers you a betting advantage for this matchup.

YPP Differential
Rank Team 2017 Last 3 Last 1 Home Away 2016
1 Penn State 18 15.4 8.6 25.2 2.2 2.9
2 Alabama 12.8 5.5 2 12.8 12.6 7.7
3 Washington 11 8 -10.9 8.4 11.9 6.4
4 Notre Dame 10.5 12.8 13.9 9.4 12.1 0.1
5 Marshall 8.8 29.5 17.6 18.8 4.1 -2
6 VA Tech 8.6 6 18.1 5.7 10.5 2.3
7 Central FL 8.5 6.8 4.4 10.2 6.8 2.1
8 Georgia 8.2 4.8 -2 8.6 7.7 -1.8
9 Clemson 7.8 6 3.1 12.7 6.3 3.7
10 Ohio State 7.6 13.3 16.8 2.2 18.2 7.8
11 Iowa 7.4 6.6 -11.3 17.1 -1.3 5.7
12 Wisconsin 7.3 7.2 9 5.5 12.6 5.9
13 TX Christian 7 12.1 — 5 9.8 0.2
14 Stanford 7 8.5 33.9 9.2 5 4.2
15 Auburn 6.9 3.1 4.6 9.5 5.6 6
16 S Carolina 5.9 5.8 6.6 2.2 9 -1.4
17 Iowa State 5.7 11.5 12.9 3.7 8 -0.8
18 Arkansas St 5.1 16.6 77.8 24.9 0.7 3.8
19 S Florida 4.9 6.2 0 9.5 3.1 3.2
20 Miami (FL) 4.6 0.2 3.2 0.5 15.5 4.8
21 Minnesota 4 -0.2 2.5 4.3 3.4 3.6
22 Kansas St 3.4 0.8 3 5 -1.3 4.8
23 Purdue 3.3 -0.1 -24 3.6 2.9 -5.3
24 Fla Atlantic 3.1 5.4 1.9 2.6 3.7 -2.9
25 Wyoming 3 7 -3 6.7 -3.4 1.1

So, based on this brief look at this huge showdown, there is a distinct advantage to Penn State, yet the media and the public are focusing on the facts that OSU is playing at home and has played so much better since the loss to Oklahoma. In my humble opinion, neither of those reasons is valid to make OSU a 7 point home favorite against a team that destroyed a very good Michigan team that does have a strong defensive unit.

Written by John Ryan of VegasTopDogs.